111–120 of 321 posts
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> only "independent" because we got involved The people of Taiwan do not want to be invaded by China. So, given that this is their wish, and Taiwan wants to be able to defend itself, it is OK to support their wishes and give them the means to defend themselves. > The decision was already made. Well, they are right now deciding that they want to be able to defend themselves. So I respect that decision, which is that t…
A generation that never fought is likely to be confronted with a very harsh reality on the field.
Luckily, China has not been fighting much during the past few decades.
What I don't get is that to invade Taiwan, China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes, both of which seem very vulnerable to modern missiles (as the Russian army found out in Ukraine). Do the chinese have a solution for that?
> China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes We're watching warfare change right now. There are many paths to success for China, given enough attention and focus. Just one: 100 million drones to deal with all the fixed defences, and then you arrive to negotiate once you've repeatedly overwhelmed the enemy for 6 months. We've spent the last few decades helping China build the biggest manufacturing engine in…
I suspect those chip factories would have been destroyed before China takes control of them. China’s leverage is more about denying access to those chips to the west.
What I don't get is that to invade Taiwan, China needs a large amount of ships and cargo planes, both of which seem very vulnerable to modern missiles (as the Russian army found out in Ukraine). Do the chinese have a solution for that?
A naval blockade with sea mines and submarines. Taiwan imports 70% of its food and 100% of its fossil fuels. Taiwan has major political factions that already favor closer ties with China. Put under stress, Taiwan may be more inclined to reunify than most western spectators would like to assume.
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The dominant opinion of the people of China or of the government of China? I would say that the majority of the people of China are much like the majority of the people of any land, they don't directly care about the issue. Someone on the other side of the country in Karamay probably doesn't even think about Taiwan for most of their days. However, according to the government of China, Taiwan is an island occupied by…
> However, according to the government of China, Taiwan is an island occupied by a rogue government, the last remnants of the losing side of a Civil War. I mean, it's not an opinion, it's a fact of how things went.
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> Reality going forward is Taiwan is going to have to look at HK or UKR and decide if they want to be just another Chinese city or glassed island that will never recover. Ukraine is holding out extremely well and poised to achieve an unconditional victory. It's victory comes at a price, but one that any free and independent nation prides itself of paying.
Doubt. UKR doing ok on battlefield but strategically it will be a dead country for generations. Vast unrecoverable levels of human capita loss, most of whom will never go back. UKR is going to be demographic deadend for the foreseeable future even if they manage to rebuild, which is far from certain as RU can drag conflict out for long time. That's going to be increasingly obvious as war continues.
TW won't be that lucky, reality is it's too small and close to PRC backyard to rebuild. PRC can ensure TW stays a subsistence society post war forever. And that's going to be the lesson / choice TW politicians will draw, they can look at integrated HK or free UKR (really, Yemen/Palestine) and decide.
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Hong Kong was leased to Britain till 1997. Very different case. As for Taiwan, if they declared independence it will be an act of war. Don't forget that US protects Taiwan on the basis it does not declare itself a sovereign country. Also, don't forget this is the official map of the Republic of China (Taiwan): https://i.redd.it/jbyegko5mkc21.jpg
While these facts are important, they sound like Taiwan is unequivocally part of the PRC. But that's probably not what people in Taiwan or many western nations would say. - Taiwan clearly has the outward appearance of a full-fledged nation - There are (few) countries that have recognized it as a sovereign nation - Taiwan maintains some form of diplomatic relations, and Nancy Pelosi's recent visit was a very public si…
No, they sound like Taiwan is part of China, something the entire world and Taiwan itself officially recognizes.
It's like the US had a civil war and the losing side flees to Hawaii and in 2090 we still arguing whether it is part of not of US or should it declare independence.
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> However, according to the government of China, Taiwan is an island occupied by a rogue government, the last remnants of the losing side of a Civil War. I mean, it's not an opinion, it's a fact of how things went.
As of today though, "rogue" seems a bit of a judgment call. From the perspective of every country besides China, there's nothing rogue about Taiwan's government, they're a pretty well-behaved member of the international community.
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> only "independent" because we got involved The people of Taiwan do not want to be invaded by China. So, given that this is their wish, and Taiwan wants to be able to defend itself, it is OK to support their wishes and give them the means to defend themselves. > The decision was already made. Well, they are right now deciding that they want to be able to defend themselves. So I respect that decision, which is that t…
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The elephant in the room is that Taiwan is a Chinese province and Taiwan's legal standing is not in question [1]. This is the position held by the UN, and it's the fundamental basis for having diplomatic relations between US and China per Potsdam Proclamation [2] that was signed 77 years ago between China, the US & the UK. This position has never officially changed. And here's what US State Department says on their o…