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Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

economist.com

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Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#181

Post by ralph84 »

snowwrestler wrote: post #95
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #57

I thought this was a bizarre (OK, I'll be honest, shitty) article. The beginning starts out by seemingly making the point that Japan has low unemployment because it has a lot of inefficient, "make-work" jobs, e.g. "smartly dressed women help you use the lifts" (subtext being who needs help using an elevator) and "a team of four people was involved in the preparation of your correspondent’s gin martini". OK, fair enou…

I agree with most of this, but birth rates are not relevant. Note that Japan has had a very low fertility rate for years but still has folks for all those make-work jobs. In the U.S. what changed over the past 5 years is legal immigration: it was drastically cut and has not been restored. So as citizens and existing long-term residents pursue better jobs or time at home, there are far fewer new residents eager for lo…

The decline in legal immigration is almost entirely due to USCIS’s drastically decreased productivity during covid. Illegal immigration is still at all-time highs in the US. Why only consider legal immigration? Those industries you mentioned are all big employers of illegal immigrants.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#182

Post by bryanrasmussen »

IAmGraydon wrote: post #167
spatley wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, we need to stop talking about the pandemic experience like it affected people in any way similarily. Tech worked their fingers to the bone— 50 hour weeks and isolatng heads down grind. Everyone made money but it crushed their souls. Hospitality and entertainment stayed home and starved. Essential workers went in every day under crushing conditions, fear and literal death. We were all subject to one master. But…

Hilarious to think that 50 hour weeks is working your fingers to the bone.

10 hours over the default American work week does seem a bit much.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#183

Post by swexbe »

selcuka wrote: post #127
refurb wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it's normal when housing prices have massively inflated due to ultra-low interest rates, then rates returned to normal. If DINKs can't afford it, what does that tell you about the direction housing prices will go?

> If DINKs can't afford it, what does that tell you about the direction housing prices will go? The ones with capital will buy them, and you will be renting.

Seems like a pretty risky investment. Especially as fewer and fewer people will have anything to gain from the NIMBY policies artificially increasing prices.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#184

Post by throwswaydollar »

rjbwork wrote: post #144
throwswaydollar wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I want all nations to ditch dollar based trading. It's nothing but indirect tax on the non Americans. High interest rates is once in a decade thing btw. America printed 4 trillon dollars since COVID. I am not finding America at fault or anything like that. Everyone puts their interests first after all

The US has been subsidizing global trade for the better part of a century, while not actually getting all that much out of it economically - geopolitically, sure, it's been great, but economically it mostly just decimated domestic low-end manufacturing and resource extraction. Let's see how happy you'll be once the US turns entirely inwards and the rest of the world has to secure their global trade routes. The US wil…

Not really. Outsourced manufacturing to China provides cheap stuff and zero environmental cost. All the rich who got rich bcz of the manufacturing industry move their wealth to the west mostly USA and UK.

UK provides safe and smooth system for ultra rich to get their money out of developing nations. Even dirty money is welcomed.

USA has golden visas, who do you think they created those for?

I supported Trump on taking manufacturing back bcz it's good for developing world to protect their environment.

Americans who think it's the developing world that took your jobs. Remember the real culprits are the riches in your country and those imigrated riches.

Btw no one in their right mind thinks America's debt will ever be repaid. Again developing nations will have to foot the bill.

PS: thanks for the service sector jobs though

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#185

Post by patrickk »

jackcosgrove wrote: post #96
lr4444lr wrote: post #8

Isn't this the long arc of the sub replacement birthrates?

Turns out there is a factor of production in short supply that's even more vital than microchips: human labor.

I wonder when rich countries (excluding Japan due to their culture) will start to agressively complete with each other for middle or high skilled foreign labour to plug vital gaps. Offering not only green cards or EU blue cards, but eventual citizenship, university tenureship, guarantee minimum salaries and more goodies, without caps on the numbers per year. Kind of like how Dubai or Australia does for nurses today, but for all sectors of the economy.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#186

Post by favaq »

ec109685 wrote: post #138

Meanwhile in third world countries, people are selling their kid’s organs: https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/from-organ-trade-to-sedat... If only there was a way for people to emigrate to opportunity.

I'm happy that people who sell their kids' organs are not allowed to enter my country.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#187

Post by 5448346438 »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #57

I thought this was a bizarre (OK, I'll be honest, shitty) article. The beginning starts out by seemingly making the point that Japan has low unemployment because it has a lot of inefficient, "make-work" jobs, e.g. "smartly dressed women help you use the lifts" (subtext being who needs help using an elevator) and "a team of four people was involved in the preparation of your correspondent’s gin martini". OK, fair enou…

To be honest make-work type jobs are shitty examples anyway unless their existence is mandated through governance (looking at you Oregon gas stations). Otherwise, whether those jobs seem important or necessary or neither, their existence is a cultural one that's at least as significant as any job related to entertainment or hospitality.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#188

Post by misja111 »

diceduckmonk wrote: post #153

Credibility of the author is out the door when they are using strawman comparisons with Japan (Tokyo) indicative of someone who spent a week there as a tourist and had to shoehorn this experience in. It's like a foreigner traveling to America, and by that I mean LA or NYC, and talk about how fashionable people in SoHo were or how vibrant Time Square is, meanwhile 99% of Americans aren't in this way of life. I'm almos…

> The example with the airport and malls being overstaffed. The first part is that both the government and people would rather that people work, rather than rely on government/society, even if it means the enterprise is not operating optimally.

This. In many EU countries, airports are currently severely -under-staffed. So much so that in several airports scheduled flights had to be canceled. Whatever the cause for low unemployment in Western countries is, it is definitely not the abundance of 'nonsense jobs' like in Japan.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#189

Post by mym1990 »

teekert wrote: post #175
ethbr0 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> to a high interest one We're at 4.50–4.75, no? That's not low, but it's not high either. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate#Historica...

For reference, my mortgage from 13 years ago was 4.85%, the one I got 6 months ago was 4.25%, about 1.5 years ago we got 2%. When I was born in the early 80's, my parents were doing 12%. Of course, housing prices adapt so that banks always extract a nice, steady amount from the people. Even more nowadays, when there's more to extract because more women started working. More to the daycare, more to the banks, the Amer…

Maybe a hot take but I feel like high(er) interest rates for homes should be the standard. This allows for demand to be modulated, and puts up a barrier to rent seekers from flooding the market. The problem is that over the past 5-10 years a lot of property has already been snapped up by investors at minimal interest rates, so as long as rents stay somewhat stable, they investors will be raking in the returns. I guess at the end of the day the money still flows to a third party rather than the homeowner that is trying to stay in one place for long term.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#190

Post by shapefrog »

LeonB wrote: post #152
abduhl wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And why would they expect that?

Before I answer that I’d be interested to know if you have ever met any people? And secondly, do you have any compassion? Because it seems like the answer to one or the other might be “no”, in which case you’re going to struggle to understand any answer I can provide.

I can safely answer yes and yes and still laugh at someone for taking their life savings to the casino and putting it all on red.

If it came up red they would be telling me they were a financial genius who had unlocked the secret to riches.

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