Is it really an employment miracle? or just the expected result of the baby boomers retiring
Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
131–140 of 298 posts
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#132Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, it's normal when housing prices have massively inflated due to ultra-low interest rates, then rates returned to normal. If DINKs can't afford it, what does that tell you about the direction housing prices will go?
> If DINKs can't afford it, what does that tell you about the direction housing prices will go? The ones with capital will buy them, and you will be renting.
Clearly not since housing prices are falling due to affordability.
And if you look at the capital buying up houses, it's a tiny fraction of all available housing out there.
The correct answer is - just like when housing prices went up with low interest rates, they'll go down with high interest rates.
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#133Earlier quoted context omitted.
A friend worked for Royal Caribbean in their entertainment division onboard. No work, no unemployment, a bit of stimulus, and had to crash at one of my homes so they weren’t homeless. Because no one rents to you when you have no assets and volatile income during a pandemic. Exhausted their emergency savings and modest retirement account. This is one of many of my associates in the service industry that had substantia…
How came no unemployment? If you had regular job, you were eligible for unemployment there was also PUP enabled due to pandemic, so if you were self employed you could request unemployment under that. In addition there were also short periods of time where you could get extra $600/week (as it is impossible to survive for long on the usual unemployment amount)
Royal Caribbean's ships are flagged and run out of Nassau. I doubt US labor laws are relevant here.
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#134There's plenty of jobs out there, but what the MSM doesn't tell is, they ain't the kind of jobs most people want.
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#135Earlier quoted context omitted.
seems the consensus is "a little more inflation" is better than "a bigger recession" which is probably true. People are still trying to get on their feet, and inflation is "felt" a lot less than losing your job (and not being able to find a new one for a long time).
Claiming that "a little more inflation" is preferred to "a bigger recession" is an opinion, I'm really not sure it's a consensus, though even if it is a consensus, it's not a good argument for or against it. I think it comes down to whether we soon realize we're near hard landing (recession) or no landing (ongoing inflation). As far as I know (though I'm really not well educated when it comes to economy), in the enti…
I am starting to doubt that interest rates are the best lever against inflation.
Rising prices are supply not meeting demand. It feels like improving productivity would be an equally powerful tool with less human cost. Granted that is a harder thing to control quarter over quarter.
Consider this analysis that intetest rates may in some cases raise prices. https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2023/02/04/do-high-inter...
And more links along that line from the pluralistic blog. https://pluralistic.net/2023/02/04/if-i-was-a-horse/#friedma...
Does anybody else hear talk of productivity in talk of inflation?
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#136As a global citizen, I'm worse off using the dolar. Sooner it's gone the better.
It's the opposite. If the US keeps raising rates and other countries don't (like it appears Canada will do), then USD will appreciate in value. Smart to be holding USD right now.
I want all nations to ditch dollar based trading. It's nothing but indirect tax on the non Americans.
High interest rates is once in a decade thing btw.
America printed 4 trillon dollars since COVID. I am not finding America at fault or anything like that. Everyone puts their interests first after all
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#137We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.
Best case what happened in the 70s if this keeps up. Can't predict really as you said. You can bound expectations though. Best outcome is perhaps interest rates get lower and things resume as normal assuming there is no other lockdown say.
> what happened in the 70s
Do you mean the early 1970s when the US moved off the gold standard and there was a massive oil shock?
Or the late 1970s when inflation made an attempt for a runaway spiral?
> get lower and things resume as normal
The last few years (2008-present) have been anything but “normal”.
The Fed has been full throttle on the lowest interest rate for years and Quantitative Easing / asset purchase programs. Stocks and VCs have been juiced with cheap money causing massive distortions in many markets.
Normal would involve checking and savings accounts paying a non-trivial interest rate. It would involve actual due diligence in VC, not rubber stamping FOMO. Your “normal” probably needs some recalibration.
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#138Meanwhile in third world countries, people are selling their kid’s organs: https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/from-organ-trade-to-sedat...
If only there was a way for people to emigrate to opportunity.
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#139Earlier quoted context omitted.
This isn't a high interest rate ecconomy, this is normal interest rates. Rates have been absurdily low for a while so you may not remember it, but history provides a record.
Is the norm really that home loans are unaffordable even to first-time-buyer DINKs with good-to-decent six figure jobs who just want a place to live? (not an investment property) Currently the mortgage rates are the highest ever since 1989. Have you personally already purchased your first home? Without family assistance, it would be absolutely brutal and untenable for my children to enter into in this domain at prese…
> Have you personally already purchased your first home? Without family assistance, it would be absolutely brutal and untenable for my children to enter into in this domain at present.
I haven't, but I'm not a DINK, and have never broken six figures.
The right credit union will make a home loan with no money down, which might help your kids and their spouses. I'm currently paying $3k/month for rent. Zillow says that this could afford a $350,965 home with a 30-year 6.833% fixed rate, including 1.2% taxes at $351/month and $800/year in homeowner's insurance at $67/month, and mortgage insurance at $287/month. Not possible in this area, but possible elsewhere.
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#140> A more intriguing possibility concerns the labour force. According to our estimates the rich world is “missing” 10m workers, or roughly 1.5% of the total workforce, relative to pre-pandemic trends (see chart 3). In Britain and Italy the workforce has actually shrunk. Early retirements and an increasingly elderly population explain some of the deficit. Covid may have pushed people to reassess their priorities, promp…
There have been endless articles about:
- how felony records, addiction to opiates, lack of citizenship paperwork, etc have made so many people undesirable hires
- how so many people have moved onto disability insurance
- how certain populations are opting to play video games, watch porn, and live at home with parents
- young women were squeezed out of the workforce during the pandemic and have yet to return in large numbers
- medical bankruptcy (a mostly US specific issue)
- inefficiency in hiring funnels (“the resume firewall”)