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Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

economist.com

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Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#21

Post by rprospero »

derstander wrote: post #11
mjhay wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are talking about monetary stimulus/low interest rates, you have a point, but if you are talking about expanded unemployment or Berniebucks, that's been gone from the economy for quite some time.

What are “Berniebucks”? A cursory google search suggests that they are either Safari Ltd’s reward program or Bernie Sanders fundraising for his 2016 run for President, but neither of those seem germane to this conversation. Is the notion that Bernie Sanders is somehow responsible for all of the economic stimulus given to US citizens during the pandemic?

I believe that they’re referring to Ben Bernanke and the policy of giving money directly to the populous, bypassing other intermediary institutions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#22

Post by danaris »

derstander wrote: post #11
mjhay wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are talking about monetary stimulus/low interest rates, you have a point, but if you are talking about expanded unemployment or Berniebucks, that's been gone from the economy for quite some time.

What are “Berniebucks”? A cursory google search suggests that they are either Safari Ltd’s reward program or Bernie Sanders fundraising for his 2016 run for President, but neither of those seem germane to this conversation. Is the notion that Bernie Sanders is somehow responsible for all of the economic stimulus given to US citizens during the pandemic?

Given the context, they seem to be using it to refer to direct-to-the-people stimulus payments, because Sanders is a Socialist and advocates for more such payments. (Though oddly non-pejoratively, based on their phrasing.)

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#23

Post by Swizec »

marginalia_nu wrote: post #19
Swizec wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering almost 7m people died from covid officially … Yeah they’re pretty missing https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... The Economist puts excess deaths at 20m https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

How many of these dead people were of a working age?

Enough?

Keep in mind we got some of the first ever basic human rights because there weren’t enough peasants after the black plague.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#24

Post by ajross »

mkl95 wrote: post #9

We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.

> We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.

If people in aggregate are suddenly unable to "afford" things, then you're not talking about inflation. People (again, in aggregate) have more money (not wealth) than they did a few years ago, which is what "inflation" means. On average, it's a rescaling, nothing changes.

Now, individuals may be hurt or helped[1] by this aggregate rescaling. But it remains a rescaling, and if you try to interpret it the way you just did you're going to get your predictions wrong every single time.

[1] FWIW: if you hold a mortage or any other large non-inflation-indexed loan, you should be cheering for inflation to dilute your debt. Most US homeowners are coming out ahead. They don't explain this well on the news networks though.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#27

Post by sillybov3456 »

I think it can but I wouldn't call it a miracle. The "boomer bulge" in the workforce is in the process of entering retirement en masse. The generations replacing them are smaller. This will contribute to higher inflation (lots of money that was sitting in real estate and 401ks being withdrawn to compete over a limited supply of basic goods and services like healthcare), and also to lower unemployment.

It doesn't necessarily mean we are experiencing a miracle and will have higher living standards, I promise it is quite possible for a nation to banish unemployment but still have a majority of people struggling to get by.

That being said, I think we haven't seen the full effect of higher interest rates yet, we are just getting started with that.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#28

Post by eftychis »

mkl95 wrote: post #9

We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.

Best case what happened in the 70s if this keeps up.

Can't predict really as you said. You can bound expectations though.

Best outcome is perhaps interest rates get lower and things resume as normal assuming there is no other lockdown say.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#30

Post by gabythenerd »

sillybov3456 wrote: post #27

I think it can but I wouldn't call it a miracle. The "boomer bulge" in the workforce is in the process of entering retirement en masse. The generations replacing them are smaller. This will contribute to higher inflation (lots of money that was sitting in real estate and 401ks being withdrawn to compete over a limited supply of basic goods and services like healthcare), and also to lower unemployment. It doesn't nece…

> I promise it is quite possible for a nation to banish unemployment but still have a majority of people struggling to get by.

You can always end up having a bunch of low paying jobs that don't allow for a good standard of living. Everyone will be employed but I'm sure no one will end up enjoying that.

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