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Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

economist.com

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Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#141

Post by ssss11 »

ethbr0 wrote: post #16
mkl95 wrote: post #9

We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.

> to a high interest one We're at 4.50–4.75, no? That's not low, but it's not high either. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate#Historica...

But are the publicised rates correct - theyre based on a basket of goods, of which my understanding is, many standard items are not included. I think petrol might have been one?

I’ve seen online estimates recently 3 or 4x what you’ve stated and it wouldn’t surprise me if those were correct but we’ll never know.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#142

Post by chordalkeyboard »

ajross wrote: post #80
marcosdumay wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, monetary changes maintain the mean purchase power. But people being able to buy necessities is more about median purchase power, or really the details of its distribution. The mean purchase power has a very small impact on society.

And I say a third time: if you want to have a discussion about unfair distribution of monetary effects on specific populations, you need to have that discussion and not just shout "inflation!". Because while your point is true, it's specious. Changes are always happening (c.f. eggs, mentioned upthread). The question isn't whether things are changing, it's about what is changing and what to do about it.

inflation is not scale-independent, the first goods to be bid up are the ones purchased by the people who receive the freshly minted funds.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Cantillon#Monetary_the...

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#143

Post by JenrHywy »

ssss11 wrote: post #141
ethbr0 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> to a high interest one We're at 4.50–4.75, no? That's not low, but it's not high either. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate#Historica...

But are the publicised rates correct - theyre based on a basket of goods, of which my understanding is, many standard items are not included. I think petrol might have been one? I’ve seen online estimates recently 3 or 4x what you’ve stated and it wouldn’t surprise me if those were correct but we’ll never know.

You're confusing interest rates and inflation.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#144

Post by rjbwork »

throwswaydollar wrote: post #136
refurb wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the opposite. If the US keeps raising rates and other countries don't (like it appears Canada will do), then USD will appreciate in value. Smart to be holding USD right now.

I want all nations to ditch dollar based trading. It's nothing but indirect tax on the non Americans. High interest rates is once in a decade thing btw. America printed 4 trillon dollars since COVID. I am not finding America at fault or anything like that. Everyone puts their interests first after all

The US has been subsidizing global trade for the better part of a century, while not actually getting all that much out of it economically - geopolitically, sure, it's been great, but economically it mostly just decimated domestic low-end manufacturing and resource extraction.

Let's see how happy you'll be once the US turns entirely inwards and the rest of the world has to secure their global trade routes. The US will be fine. It can be largely self sufficient, despite the hysteria over our inability to manufacture things, we can redevelop the low end stuff fairly easily, and we're re-shoring the ultra-high end with even TSMC making chip plants here. It'll be a bumpy road, but all indicators are that the US is re-shoring manufacturing, developing energy independence, and turning inwards.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#146

Post by tomcam »

rayiner wrote: post #116
metadat wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the norm really that home loans are unaffordable even to first-time-buyer DINKs with good-to-decent six figure jobs who just want a place to live? (not an investment property) Currently the mortgage rates are the highest ever since 1989. Have you personally already purchased your first home? Without family assistance, it would be absolutely brutal and untenable for my children to enter into in this domain at prese…

Can your kids afford an $851/month mortgage? https://www.redfin.com/IA/Cedar-Rapids/6835-Preston-Terrace-... Or $1600/month? This has a nursery so they can fix the dink: https://www.redfin.com/MD/Pasadena/3500K-Lochearn-Ct-21122/u...

“Fix the dink” just hit my funny bone for some reason. Now I can’t stop giggling and saying it to myself

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#148

Post by [deleted] »

selcuka wrote: post #125
metadat wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the norm really that home loans are unaffordable even to first-time-buyer DINKs with good-to-decent six figure jobs who just want a place to live? (not an investment property) Currently the mortgage rates are the highest ever since 1989. Have you personally already purchased your first home? Without family assistance, it would be absolutely brutal and untenable for my children to enter into in this domain at prese…

> Is the norm really that home loans are unaffordable even to first-time-buyer DINKs with good-to-decent six figure jobs who just want a place to live? The home loans are unaffordable because the house prices are too high. The median house price in 1989 was around $95K ($230K adjusted for inflation). Today it's about $400K.

[deleted]

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#149

Post by mikewarot »

creato wrote: post #63
jongjong wrote: post #48

My theory is that bullshit jobs are one of the mechanisms by which large corporations maintain a protective anti-competitive moat around their businesses; instead of letting unused labor roam freely in the markets to potentially compete against their interests, corporations provide as many jobs as required in order to keep as many people's time fully occupied in order to minimize the number of people who can compete…

I can't believe this theory is so widespread. There's no high level conspiracy to hire people to keep them away from competitors, such a thing could not be kept secret, and it's a ridiculously expensive thing to do (even for a FAANG) for extremely dubious value that might be realized a decade down the road and no real way to know if it's working. Bullshit jobs exist because mid level managers are very averse to killi…

>it's a ridiculously expensive thing to do (even for a FAANG)

If you can raise (or borrow at 0% interest) Billions of dollars, it makes sense, and is a dirt cheap thing to do. It keeps all the people you've hired from becoming your competitors, and you might even profit from their work in the mean while.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#150

Post by throwawaylinux »

marcosdumay wrote: post #67
flkiwi wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historians in 500 years will stare in wonder at the stunning evidence we did not, in fact, build ALL the infrastructure, physical and otherwise, during the last ~25 years of absurdly cheap money.

Well, maybe in 500 years people will have an explanation for why people don't create fundamental things in low-interest times. Lasting investment seems to be very strongly and positively correlated with rates.

How do you define "fundamental thing"? Are we talking primary production here? Or do you mean a stretch of asphalt road for automobiles? Or a steam turbine for thermal electricity generation? a 3nm silicon chip; the factory that makes 3nm silicon chips; the factories that make those factories; a rocket engine; a mRNA vaccine; an office building; a mathematical proof; an astronomical observation; a tank; a nuclear warhead; a computer algorithm; a song; a child?
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