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Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

economist.com

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Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#11

Post by derstander »

mjhay wrote: post #6
mountainriver wrote: post #3

Eventually we’ll run through all the money we dumped into the economy.

If you are talking about monetary stimulus/low interest rates, you have a point, but if you are talking about expanded unemployment or Berniebucks, that's been gone from the economy for quite some time.

What are “Berniebucks”? A cursory google search suggests that they are either Safari Ltd’s reward program or Bernie Sanders fundraising for his 2016 run for President, but neither of those seem germane to this conversation.

Is the notion that Bernie Sanders is somehow responsible for all of the economic stimulus given to US citizens during the pandemic?

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#12

Post by easythrees »

yasp wrote: post #7
jameshart wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ask whom? The missing 10m? Might be hard. What with them being ‘missing’.

Ostensibly they are missing from the labor force, not from the planet.

How many are dead or permanently disabled because of Covid, I wonder.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#13

Post by Swizec »

yasp wrote: post #7
jameshart wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ask whom? The missing 10m? Might be hard. What with them being ‘missing’.

Ostensibly they are missing from the labor force, not from the planet.

Considering almost 7m people died from covid officially … Yeah they’re pretty missing

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-...

The Economist puts excess deaths at 20m

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#15

Post by endisneigh »

mkl95 wrote: post #9

We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.

> Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass.

> We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so

Indeed

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#16

Post by ethbr0 »

mkl95 wrote: post #9

We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.

> to a high interest one

We're at 4.50–4.75, no?

That's not low, but it's not high either. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate#Historica...

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#17

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

mkl95 wrote: post #9

We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.

> Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass.

That's true regardless of the interest rate situation...

> We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months.

IIUC, even the Fed's pretend "Natural Rate of Interest" is higher than current rates - meaning even they seem to believe they're still stimulating the economy somewhat with their policies.

Current interest rates are still arguably low. And AFAIK, no major central bank is even considering an interest rate - ever - that would actually be "high" or even positive in REAL terms.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#18

Post by mkl95 »

endisneigh wrote: post #15
mkl95 wrote: post #9

We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.

> Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. > We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so Indeed

I sort of trust the ECB, but I won't be shocked if they miss their targets.

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#19

Post by marginalia_nu »

Swizec wrote: post #13
yasp wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ostensibly they are missing from the labor force, not from the planet.

Considering almost 7m people died from covid officially … Yeah they’re pretty missing https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... The Economist puts excess deaths at 20m https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...

How many of these dead people were of a working age?

Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?

#20

Post by bluGill »

mkl95 wrote: post #9

We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.

This isn't a high interest rate ecconomy, this is normal interest rates. Rates have been absurdily low for a while so you may not remember it, but history provides a record.
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