Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
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Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#2Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#3Eventually we’ll run through all the money we dumped into the economy.
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#4> A more intriguing possibility concerns the labour force. According to our estimates the rich world is “missing” 10m workers, or roughly 1.5% of the total workforce, relative to pre-pandemic trends (see chart 3). In Britain and Italy the workforce has actually shrunk. Early retirements and an increasingly elderly population explain some of the deficit. Covid may have pushed people to reassess their priorities, prompting them to drop out. Some even speculate that long covid is forcing people to stay on the economic sidelines. Whatever the explanation, falling participation has wreaked havoc with companies’ plans. Many fired staff when the pandemic struck, only to struggle to rehire them in 2021. That year vacancies across the oecd hit an all-time high of 30m.
Why not ask them?
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#5> A more intriguing possibility concerns the labour force. According to our estimates the rich world is “missing” 10m workers, or roughly 1.5% of the total workforce, relative to pre-pandemic trends (see chart 3). In Britain and Italy the workforce has actually shrunk. Early retirements and an increasingly elderly population explain some of the deficit. Covid may have pushed people to reassess their priorities, promp…
Ask whom?
The missing 10m?
Might be hard. What with them being ‘missing’.
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#6Eventually we’ll run through all the money we dumped into the economy.
If you are talking about monetary stimulus/low interest rates, you have a point, but if you are talking about expanded unemployment or Berniebucks, that's been gone from the economy for quite some time.
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#7> A more intriguing possibility concerns the labour force. According to our estimates the rich world is “missing” 10m workers, or roughly 1.5% of the total workforce, relative to pre-pandemic trends (see chart 3). In Britain and Italy the workforce has actually shrunk. Early retirements and an increasingly elderly population explain some of the deficit. Covid may have pushed people to reassess their priorities, promp…
Ask whom? The missing 10m? Might be hard. What with them being ‘missing’.
Ostensibly they are missing from the labor force, not from the planet.
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#8Isn't this the long arc of the sub replacement birthrates?
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#9We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.
Re: Can the West’s perplexing employment miracle continue?
#10We have gone from a zero interest rate economy to a high interest one within months. Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass. We know inflation should start decreasing within a year or so, but you cannot predict how millions of people will react to suddenly not being able to afford stuff.
>Whoever claims to accurately predict what's going to happen in the next few years is talking out of their ass.
Especially since the same was true (financial experts were talking out of their ass) for the whole easier to predict zero interest rate period too!