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Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

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Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. What US-Friendly states are between Russia and the Donbass then?

Not between , but making it more difficult for Russia to safely send troops into the Donbas region. Depending on the routes Russia takes to get materials and troops into the Donbas, and to protect other routes into the Donbas, we have: Turkey - blocking entry of north seas warships into the Black Sea / Sea of Azov. Ukraine itself, which can send missiles onto the Russian roads currently funneling troops into the Donb…

> Not between, but making it more difficult for Russia to safely send troops into the Donbas region.

Based on the way you write it seems you think this is problematic.

Do you?

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#222
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think he meant that Russia is pretty much surrounded by NATO allies, excluding of course China and this is something Russia is not to happy about (stated this many times in the past as NATO was expanding).

If they were really scared of more NATO invading Ukraine is the fastest way to get a larger border with NATO (win or lose).

"Russia only feel their borders are safe when there are Russian soldiers on both sides of them" is a saying I read recently.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. Following this then it would make sense for both China and Russia to feel threatened and react accordingly. I would expect the US to react even harder…

> I would expect the US to react even harder if any of their "enemies" would setup a missile base in Mexico or Canada. The U.S. and Russia both made security guarantees to remove nuclear missiles from Ukraine following the breakup of the USSR. The closest-to-Russia NATO member with forward-deployed US nuclear weapons is Turkey, and it's been a NATO member since 1952. https://www.newsweek.com/nato-us-nuclear-weapons-e…

NATO missile defences are present in the eastern block (Poland, Czech Republic, etc) and AFAIK those can be repurposed to launch offensive missiles as well. If having offensive missiles in a country takes 2 steps, where the first is gaining military access to said country and the second is to install offensive missiles, certainly the first step is the harder to accomplish.

Additionally, when it comes to geopolitical power things are much more complex than you make them to be. I suggest reading this publication[0] to understand better what's going on.

A few points:

> Moscow claims that missile defenses represent an American perception of threats from Russian nuclear missiles. Therefore these defenses aim to neutralize them in potential conflict. Either Russian missiles would be attacked by a conventional air and space first strike, possibly involving these networks in Europe, or else these missile defenses would frustrate a retaliatory second strike leaving Russia defenseless.

> While these missile defenses in and of themselves are no threat, they represent the first stage of a planned or potential U.S. buildup of a missile network in Europe that could then neutralize Russia's first and/or second strike capabilities as cited above and shift the burden of war to Europe.

> If missile defenses were stationed at these bases, it would create a pretext for stationing offensive missiles there. This would force Moscow to assume the worst case scenario and could cause Russia to attempt to shoot them down leading to a conflict with America.

> These defenses and whatever may follow them rupture the fabric of strategic stability where neither side has the freedom of action or margin of superiority that might encourage it to think it could employ coercive diplomacy or military force with impunity. That strategic stability equation is of critical importance to Russia because otherwise Washington might be tempted to think it could strike at Russia with relative impunity.

> Finally, there is a fifth, and always unstated but critical aspect here. These defenses entrench the United States in Europe's military defense and foreclose any prospect of Moscow's being able to intimidate or reestablish its hegemony over Eastern and Central Europe, and even possibly the CIS. If missile defenses exist in Europe, Russian missile threats are greatly diminished if not negated. Because empire and the creation of a fearsome domestic enemy are the justifications for and inextricable corollary of internal autocracy, the end of empire allegedly entails Russia's irrevocable decline as a great power and, (the crucial point) generates tremendous pressure for domestic reform.

.0: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/352-missile-defense...

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That card stops working pretty quick if you can’t manage to get money out of China and into Amex’s hands.

And that's why people proxy through Hong Kong and own overseas holding companies. Just don't be a thorn to the party.

Didn’t paulsutter above suggest Singapore had replaced HK though?

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which part of the American government forced Putin to invade Ukraine? I presume you have some evidence of this because you sound so sure it was all planned?

Nobody forced Putin to invade. However, the US government certainly signed off on pre-war decisions to extend Nato into Ukraine, paying to modernize the Ukrainian military, and Joint military exercises in the Black Sea. Not being part of these decisions, You and I can only speculate on how they fit into overall US strategy and how the risk-rewards were weighed. My concern as a US citizen is that the current war in Uk…

> However, the US government certainly signed off on pre-war decisions to extend Nato into Ukraine, paying to modernize the Ukrainian military, and Joint military exercises in the Black Sea.

All of this occurred after 2014. What happened in 2014? Everything that is happening in that region is due to Putin and Russia’s own actions.

This is not a great benefit to the US whatsoever. It takes attention away from Asia. The US has been reaching in to its stockpiles and coffers to make sure Russia doesn’t get what it wants.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CCP will not go to war in Taiwan anytime soon. Maybe ever. Younger Chinese are absolutely against it, the invasion of Ukraine has undermined everything China has ever said about invasion. To mount an invasion of Taiwan would be significantly more difficult than Ukraine, and is not feasible anytime soon. In short, China cannot afford it, monetarily and they cannot afford the potential blowback in trade and investm…

Aside from these reasons, another signal is KMT officials meeting with China on the mainland recently. It seems china would prefer to do things politically

[deleted]

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CCP will not go to war in Taiwan anytime soon. Maybe ever. Younger Chinese are absolutely against it, the invasion of Ukraine has undermined everything China has ever said about invasion. To mount an invasion of Taiwan would be significantly more difficult than Ukraine, and is not feasible anytime soon. In short, China cannot afford it, monetarily and they cannot afford the potential blowback in trade and investm…

Aside from these reasons, another signal is KMT officials meeting with China on the mainland recently. It seems china would prefer to do things politically

Of course politically is better -- "win without fighting". So a fifth column willing to hand over the island would be ideal. Men like certain officials of Kherson Oblast just last year, who complied with specific requests from the Kremlin.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#228
post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except if they think there is a significant likelihood they will lose, which would guarantee the downfall of the regime. The Argentinian junta thought the UK would be unable to respond to their invasion of the Falklands (and if they had waited a couple more years, they may well have been right), but I doubt China dismisses the US out of hand, specially after the sobering experience of Russia in Ukraine.

>The Argentinian junta thought the UK would be unable to respond to their invasion of the Falklands (and if they had waited a couple more years, they may well have been right) Because of elections or ships and planes being retired?

Aircraft carriers that were in the process of being sold off, like HMS Hermes and HMS Invincible.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could be all of the above, but for at least a year I have been reading how the real estate bubble that's underpinning the Chinese growth economy is starting to pop with the potential to bleed into the banking system, e.g. [0] If this happens, and is at bad as some analysts say it could be, then the model propping up the CCP effectively ends [1] and they'll have bigger things to worry about than re-unification or tari…

And that in turn might cause them to start a war... Because when the regime has nothing to lose all bets are off, even though it makes no sense whatsoever. They will have to distract from their culpability somehow.

I really wish we wouldn't speculate about China starting a war. It's completely baseless and comes across as some sort of china-man-bad xenophobia.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#230

Are the increasingly tight capital controls a precursor to a war with Taiwan or because the CCP expects some other shock to occur? Is their economy expected to crash for some other reason or is this simply dictatorships love centralised control over everything especially capital?

Could be all of the above, but for at least a year I have been reading how the real estate bubble that's underpinning the Chinese growth economy is starting to pop with the potential to bleed into the banking system, e.g. [0] If this happens, and is at bad as some analysts say it could be, then the model propping up the CCP effectively ends [1] and they'll have bigger things to worry about than re-unification or tari…

It's impossible to take your second "source" seriously since it's a dude that literally went to school to learn war games and worked at a think tank affectionately known as "The Shadow CIA" that effectively profits by pushing a narrative of foreign countries being violent.
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