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Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

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Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#91

Post by Overtonwindow »

andy_ppp wrote: post #34

Are the increasingly tight capital controls a precursor to a war with Taiwan or because the CCP expects some other shock to occur? Is their economy expected to crash for some other reason or is this simply dictatorships love centralised control over everything especially capital?

The CCP will not go to war in Taiwan anytime soon. Maybe ever. Younger Chinese are absolutely against it, the invasion of Ukraine has undermined everything China has ever said about invasion. To mount an invasion of Taiwan would be significantly more difficult than Ukraine, and is not feasible anytime soon. In short, China cannot afford it, monetarily and they cannot afford the potential blowback in trade and investment.

The only people who want to take back Taiwan are older Chinese government, and military hardliners. They are rapidly losing that battle as time goes on.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#92

Post by gebruikersnaam »

roenxi wrote: post #62
ChemSpider wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

> A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid... The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that…

Which countries surrounding China are US-friendly?

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#93

Post by paulsutter »

adaml_623 wrote: post #7

I wonder what the billionaires do to get their money out? Do they pay people to travel with jewellery that gets sold for foreign currency once it's outside China? Do they overpay for imported goods and get the difference paid into a Swiss bank account? It's always interesting to me how really wealthy people pay for loopholes

Singapore, where the trade-to-GDP ratio is 320%. The best way to get money out of China is to ship goods to Singapore at a loss, then sell them on the Europe or the Middle East realizing the profits in Singapore

Look at the port of Singapore. Massive loading and unloading from ships, but no rail or lines of trucks leaving. Look at the hundreds of ships parked offshore waiting to load or unload. Look at the position on a map (every ship heading east from Asia passes Singapore, 2000 merchant ships per day)

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#94

Post by macinjosh »

andy_ppp wrote: post #66
logifail wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there’s nothing the US wants less than borders starting to be changed by wars I think it's a major mistake to talk about any country as if it's one homogenous, unanimous entity. There are those in the US, and elsewhere, who stand to make a great deal of out of money from war.

Which part of the American government forced Putin to invade Ukraine? I presume you have some evidence of this because you sound so sure it was all planned?

1. NATO which is primarily funded by the US has been pushing up closer and closer against Russia’s border.

2. US helped orchestrate the 2014 coup that overthrew a democratically elected but Russian friendly government.

3. Ukraine, being a US client state, refused to uphold the Minsk peace agreements.

4. Immediately prior to the invasion the US/Ukraine side of the proxy war escalated shelling of Russian leaning parts of Ukraine crossing known red lines.

5. Ukraine has outlawed Russian language, culture, religion, political parties, and jail those who practice them. Which we all know is how democracies function /s

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#95

Post by chaostheory »

andy_ppp wrote: post #53
pessimizer wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not stupid. It's bold and almost risk-free. The US aren't the only people allowed to do proxy wars.

Bought fully into the Russian propaganda then… you’d do well to listen to pretty much any interview by Fiona Hill and you’d quickly realise there’s nothing the US wants less than borders starting to be changed by wars; there are so many disputed lines that it could lead to conflicts all over the world. China starting a proxy war with the US and Europe is going to be extremely bad for business.

I’m think you’re confusing China with the US. Compared to the CCP, we don’t have border disputes like the melee death clashes in the mountains vs India, past border clashes with Russia, and the border spats with nearly every Asian country in the South China Sea

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#96

Post by [deleted] »

coffeeblack wrote: post #70
dragonelite wrote: post #58

Have been hearing these kind of "capital flight" stories for decade plus now somehow big financial institutions keep pushing more FDI into China. See i'm not an economist but you can't that sounds a bit counter intuitive too me. One story says China has capital flight and you have other stories talking about more and more Foreign directed investment into China.

Rich Chinese are getting their money out of the country, because if their money is in China, they don't really own it. The CCP could take it any day and there would be nothing they could do about it. And then there is Western capital, used to rule of law and personal property. They don't see that reality as a realistic threat. So they keep pumping money into China. It will work. Until it doesn't. And then the CCP wil…

[deleted]

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#97

Post by oleksii88 »

favaq wrote: post #55
ChemSpider wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability. But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don't think that is priced into the current world stock market.

>But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv/Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. Why? We haven't sanctioned the US for the children killed by Ukraine with US weapons in the Donbass.

When exactly did US invade Ukraine?

(And at least here at HN you avoid the most obvious propaganda cliches) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Where_have_you_been_for_eigh...

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#98

Post by ur-whale »

ginko wrote: post #11
1letterunixname wrote: post #9

It's my opinion there are generally 4 kinds of Chinese UHNWIs: 1. Mainland with no interest in foreign investment 2. Mainland mostly with some foreign investments 3. Split between mainland and foreign 4. Trying to move mostly foreign while keeping some in mainland (generally to take care of family or business concerns back home) In the US as a more stable asset haven, hot real estate markets are usually where large p…

What’s a UHNWI?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra_high-net-worth_individua...

TL;DR: net worth more than 30MUSD

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#99

Post by Silverback_VII »

andy_ppp wrote: post #53
pessimizer wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not stupid. It's bold and almost risk-free. The US aren't the only people allowed to do proxy wars.

Bought fully into the Russian propaganda then… you’d do well to listen to pretty much any interview by Fiona Hill and you’d quickly realise there’s nothing the US wants less than borders starting to be changed by wars; there are so many disputed lines that it could lead to conflicts all over the world. China starting a proxy war with the US and Europe is going to be extremely bad for business.

After the revelations of Seymour Hersh I'm not sure if Europe will side with the US in the future.

Re: Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify

#100

Post by BobbyJo »

wkat4242 wrote: post #83
roenxi wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid... The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that…

> The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely. What US-Friendly states are between Russia and the Donbass then?

Isn't Donbass on the border with Russia?
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