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“Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

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Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#91

Post by docandrew »

bsder wrote: post #63
ldjkfkdsjnv wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course it does, the second paragraph in my original response states just that. This doesnt negate the fact that some people are exponentially better at business than others. Its the same in math, chess, basketball, football, writing, and every other human endeavor

> This doesnt negate the fact that some people are exponentially better at business than others. Its the same in math, chess, basketball, football, writing, and every other human endeavor Citing chess directly contradicts your thesis about "innate talent". In chess, the Polgar sisters are proof that training is the key and not genetics. The increasing existence of younger and younger chess grandmasters distributed ar…

Couldn’t it be both?

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#92

Post by bcrosby95 »

SamReidHughes wrote: post #81
loudandskittish wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is one of the things that drives me nuts about these "inspirational" stories where some millionaire/billionaire talks proudly about how their first business failed, their car was repo'd, bank foreclosed on them, etc... but I've never heard one talk about what they did between that and the successful business. Where did they sleep? How did they afford food?

> Where did they sleep? Maybe at least one of their parents had a sofa . The trick is to have parents who aren't homeless.

Having a strong support group in your life is probably one of the most important things to success.

Few paths go straight from a to b without a misstep.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#93

Post by docandrew »

fsckboy wrote: post #65

> ”Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ – Entrepreneurs giving advice this is a funny quip, and it is completely recognizable as a quip. Feeling the need to defend entrepreneurs against this quip is a defect in you. Feeling the need to analyze what %age of the time this quip would need to be true in order for it to be acceptable marks you as a complete nerd who misses the forest for the trees. Wanting to burd…

There’s definitely some truth to it, and it’s exposing humorless gadflies on both sides - those who feel the need to argue against it to justify their success, and those who can use it to feel better about their lack of success.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#94

Post by ZephyrBlu »

kjksf wrote: post #80
bsder wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are precisely demonstrating the original post, no? You had 2 of 9 businesses succeed. You are demonstrating roughly 1:5 odds of rolling a successful business. With 1:5 odds if we reroll you doing 10 businesses over and over, 10% of you never succeed . About 1/3 of you win once, 1/3 of you win twice, and 20% of you win 3 times. The versions of you that won 3 times are not any different than the versions of you who…

Those are not the odds, just his success rate. If you do everything badly (i.e. come up with bad business ides, cannot implement even those bad ideas, are bad at hiring, managing money, paying taxes etc.) then your success rate will be 0%, not 20%. The issue here isn't about how hard starting a business is. It's obviously hard enough that many (most?) people who try will fail. The issue is: can you do things better?…

I think one of the main problems is that for a lot of people, starting a business basically has a 0% chance of success.

Some people may be able to increase their chances, but maybe not everyone.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#95

Post by fountainofage »

kjksf wrote: post #80
bsder wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are precisely demonstrating the original post, no? You had 2 of 9 businesses succeed. You are demonstrating roughly 1:5 odds of rolling a successful business. With 1:5 odds if we reroll you doing 10 businesses over and over, 10% of you never succeed . About 1/3 of you win once, 1/3 of you win twice, and 20% of you win 3 times. The versions of you that won 3 times are not any different than the versions of you who…

Those are not the odds, just his success rate. If you do everything badly (i.e. come up with bad business ides, cannot implement even those bad ideas, are bad at hiring, managing money, paying taxes etc.) then your success rate will be 0%, not 20%. The issue here isn't about how hard starting a business is. It's obviously hard enough that many (most?) people who try will fail. The issue is: can you do things better?…

"but not guarantee" is almost the entire point of what folks are pointing out and what the OP meant - you could do literally everything perfect and still it's VERY likely you will fail.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#96

Post by captainlol »

bboygravity wrote: post #85
loudandskittish wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is one of the things that drives me nuts about these "inspirational" stories where some millionaire/billionaire talks proudly about how their first business failed, their car was repo'd, bank foreclosed on them, etc... but I've never heard one talk about what they did between that and the successful business. Where did they sleep? How did they afford food?

They do talk about that. Elon Musk cleaned out manure tanks for a while in Canada if I'm not mistaking. There are some interviews where he talks about this (and showering at the gym across the street and sleeping under a desk and having no money) in quite some detail.

[flagged]

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#97

Post by adw »

dvt wrote: post #3

Absolute cope in the twitter comments, and it's weird seeing this on HN, which (at least historically) was a pretty entrepreneur-friendly forum. Yes, we get it, Zuck and Gates and Jobs were "lucky." But that doesn't mean starting a business is like going to the race track, and this extreme oversimplification reminds me of equally-reductive positions (solipsism, nihilism, etc.) where zero knowledge is imparted, and th…

It really isn’t, but not in the way you think. Starting a business is a _demonstrably_ worse idea than informed gambling.

Winning at horses is much lower variance, is easier to learn, and depends enormously less on accidents of upbringing and social class. VC has historically been a fallback for people who couldn’t hack it in proper finance, and while that’s a little unfair, it’s only a little unfair.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#98

Post by starkparker »

SamReidHughes wrote: post #81
loudandskittish wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is one of the things that drives me nuts about these "inspirational" stories where some millionaire/billionaire talks proudly about how their first business failed, their car was repo'd, bank foreclosed on them, etc... but I've never heard one talk about what they did between that and the successful business. Where did they sleep? How did they afford food?

> Where did they sleep? Maybe at least one of their parents had a sofa . The trick is to have parents who aren't homeless.

Here's how I fare on that. Each checked box is something I have.

[X] "The trick is to have parents",

[ ] who are alive,

[ ] "who aren't homeless",

[ ] who have housing that is safe and functional,

[ ] who have room for you not already occupied by other family members in greater need,

[ ] who "had a sofa",

[ ] or if they're dead, at least left you with enough money as an equivalent

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#99

Post by adw »

adw wrote: post #97
dvt wrote: post #3

Absolute cope in the twitter comments, and it's weird seeing this on HN, which (at least historically) was a pretty entrepreneur-friendly forum. Yes, we get it, Zuck and Gates and Jobs were "lucky." But that doesn't mean starting a business is like going to the race track, and this extreme oversimplification reminds me of equally-reductive positions (solipsism, nihilism, etc.) where zero knowledge is imparted, and th…

It really isn’t, but not in the way you think. Starting a business is a _demonstrably_ worse idea than informed gambling. Winning at horses is much lower variance, is easier to learn, and depends enormously less on accidents of upbringing and social class. VC has historically been a fallback for people who couldn’t hack it in proper finance, and while that’s a little unfair, it’s only a little unfair.

(Note that “winning at horses” is not significantly different from “winning at hedge funds”.)

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#100

Post by Swenrekcah »

bboygravity wrote: post #85
loudandskittish wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, this is one of the things that drives me nuts about these "inspirational" stories where some millionaire/billionaire talks proudly about how their first business failed, their car was repo'd, bank foreclosed on them, etc... but I've never heard one talk about what they did between that and the successful business. Where did they sleep? How did they afford food?

They do talk about that. Elon Musk cleaned out manure tanks for a while in Canada if I'm not mistaking. There are some interviews where he talks about this (and showering at the gym across the street and sleeping under a desk and having no money) in quite some detail.

Doesn’t he come from a South-African diamond family or something?
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