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“Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

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Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#41

Post by ldjkfkdsjnv »

dmitriid wrote: post #34
ldjkfkdsjnv wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry you believe the propaganda that states otherwise. Its a radical opinion to believe "talent" doesnt exist.

Having disposable income and connections means much much more than genetics. This comment has the relevant quote: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35024721

Of course it does, the second paragraph in my original response states just that. This doesnt negate the fact that some people are exponentially better at business than others. Its the same in math, chess, basketball, football, writing, and every other human endeavor

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#42

Post by baobabKoodaa »

angarg12 wrote: post #16

My general take on successful people giving advice is to ask yourself "how reproducible is this?". When the advice hinges on a unique set of circumstances that you can't reproduce, then they are likely giving you their lottery ticket. Otherwise you might want to listen more closely.

> When the advice hinges on a unique set of circumstances that you can't reproduce, then they are likely giving you their lottery ticket.

People typically don't explain their success with "just after I opened the pickaxe shop, the gold rush started". Even if that is a major factor in their success, they will explain their success coming from other factors, like waking up at 5 am to listed to podcasts while running on the treadmill.

(The advice that you should wake up at 5 am and listen to podcasts on the treadmill is reproducible, but timing the pickaxe shop opening with the gold rush is not reproducible. You hear one as the advice, not the other. This makes it difficult to follow your advice "When the advice hinges on a unique set of circumstances that you can't reproduce, then they are likely giving you their lottery ticket. Otherwise you might want to listen more closely.")

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#43

Post by oxfordmale »

jollofricepeas wrote: post #20

This is stupid. Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. What’s your ideal of being successful? If it’s exiting at a billion, then sorry. But you can use a lot of this entrepreneur advice to find some level of success. The problem is that non-entrepreneur or first timers always try to skip the small stuff. 1. have a good team and hire right. you need jus…

You can do all of this and still fail. Many well-run start-ups fail because of market conditions. There is a lot of luck involved.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#44

Post by dmitriid »

dvt wrote: post #25
superkuh wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most predictive reason for failure or success is the commonly referenced https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15659076 >Entrepreneurship is like one of those carnival games where you throw darts or something. >Middle class kids can afford one throw. Most miss. A few hit the target and get a small prize. A very few hit the center bullseye and get a bigger prize. Rags to riches! The American Dream lives on. >Rich k…

Imo, this is completely false in the realm of software where anyone can launch a new app/project basically every other weekend and feel out what sticks & has traction.

That anyone at the very least needs access to a smartphone, powerful-enough computer, and internet.

18% of households in the US say they can't afford home internet service: https://ntia.gov/blog/2022/switched-why-are-one-five-us-hous...

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#45

Post by dmitriid »

ldjkfkdsjnv wrote: post #41
dmitriid wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having disposable income and connections means much much more than genetics. This comment has the relevant quote: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35024721

Of course it does, the second paragraph in my original response states just that. This doesnt negate the fact that some people are exponentially better at business than others. Its the same in math, chess, basketball, football, writing, and every other human endeavor

The number of people who can attribute their exceptionalism to genetics is minuscule compared to people who are just wealthy and connected.

Even those that you assume "just have it" most likely just have enough means and connections to try and fail and eventually succeed than most of us.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#46

Post by bluefirebrand »

jollofricepeas wrote: post #20

This is stupid. Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. What’s your ideal of being successful? If it’s exiting at a billion, then sorry. But you can use a lot of this entrepreneur advice to find some level of success. The problem is that non-entrepreneur or first timers always try to skip the small stuff. 1. have a good team and hire right. you need jus…

Honestly it just looks to me like the lottery you won is not "having a successful business", but "having the luxury and connections to try and fail 5-7 times with one success"

Most people cannot afford to recover from failing once.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#47

Post by bsder »

jollofricepeas wrote: post #20

This is stupid. Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. What’s your ideal of being successful? If it’s exiting at a billion, then sorry. But you can use a lot of this entrepreneur advice to find some level of success. The problem is that non-entrepreneur or first timers always try to skip the small stuff. 1. have a good team and hire right. you need jus…

You are precisely demonstrating the original post, no?

You had 2 of 9 businesses succeed. You are demonstrating roughly 1:5 odds of rolling a successful business.

With 1:5 odds if we reroll you doing 10 businesses over and over, 10% of you never succeed. About 1/3 of you win once, 1/3 of you win twice, and 20% of you win 3 times.

The versions of you that won 3 times are not any different than the versions of you who won never. Any advice you give is neither more accurate because a version of you won 3 times nor less accurate because a version of you won never.

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#48

Post by dvt »

thfuran wrote: post #40
dvt wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imo, this is completely false in the realm of software where anyone can launch a new app/project basically every other weekend and feel out what sticks & has traction.

Did you know that some people spend their weekend working to make rent rather than launching apps that they hope might work?

Of course, but we're not talking about people in poverty, or that are homeless, etc. You're just bringing up a weird red herring that's orthogonal to my point--namely, that the bar is extremely accessible (esp. compared to ventures prior to the advent of computers).

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#49

Post by mkl »

altdataseller wrote: post #27
jollofricepeas wrote: post #20

This is stupid. Any of us who have had at least two “successful” businesses will tell you that this quote is ridiculous. What’s your ideal of being successful? If it’s exiting at a billion, then sorry. But you can use a lot of this entrepreneur advice to find some level of success. The problem is that non-entrepreneur or first timers always try to skip the small stuff. 1. have a good team and hire right. you need jus…

What was the revenue of the 2nd bootstrapped success?

I think they mean it was $5 million. The same sentence seems to be talking about both of them, but would be clearer broken into two before "then".

I'm interpreting it as "The first was in the 2000s out of college (~$500k annual); it eventually petered out. Then [the second was] in the 2010s (~$5m annual)."

Re: “Here's the number I used to win the lottery“ –Entrepreneurs giving advice

#50

Post by [deleted] »

dvt wrote: post #25
superkuh wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most predictive reason for failure or success is the commonly referenced https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15659076 >Entrepreneurship is like one of those carnival games where you throw darts or something. >Middle class kids can afford one throw. Most miss. A few hit the target and get a small prize. A very few hit the center bullseye and get a bigger prize. Rags to riches! The American Dream lives on. >Rich k…

Imo, this is completely false in the realm of software where anyone can launch a new app/project basically every other weekend and feel out what sticks & has traction.

[deleted]
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