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Tesla's next-gen electric motors will get rid of rare earth elements

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Re: Tesla's next-gen electric motors will get rid of rare earth elements

#131

Post by newZWhoDis »

Lolaccount wrote: post #69
toomuchtodo wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ehh, Tesla just sold their 4 millionth vehicle (waited until then for investor day so they could flex), are breaking ground in Mexico shortly on their new factory, and are rapidly approaching $100B/year in revenue at a 25-30% margin (while other EV startups are teetering near death and legacies are slow to catch up). Constructive skepticism is fine, but strong evidence of their innovation capacity is available (espec…

Strong evidence of their innovation capacity will never overcome intense dislike of the brand. And will never translate into a sale (n=1).

That’s acceptable, people aren’t rational.

For example: Half the people on this board daily drive phones from the biggest spyware company on earth.

Re: Tesla's next-gen electric motors will get rid of rare earth elements

#132

Post by brandonagr2 »

jm4 wrote: post #94
manuelmoreale wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t see why that’s relevant with the topic of reducing consumption of certain rare elements. Then failing at some of the goals shouldn’t detract from what has been accomplished. And if the end result is just electric cars that don’t use rara elements I think that’s a good thing, even without robotaxis

I assume that the relevance is that Tesla's claims don't count for much until they actually deliver. Elon Musk has a long history of misleading people about Tesla. Whether it's embellishment, overestimation of what they can accomplish, or outright lies is up for debate, but the fact remains that they habitually over-promise and under-deliver. I consider him and his companies to be completely untrustworthy. He could b…

Do you mean habitually under-deliver with things like making the crazy claim that they will grow at 50% CAGR?

https://twitter.com/ICannot_Enough/status/161837414087616512...

Re: Tesla's next-gen electric motors will get rid of rare earth elements

#133

Post by Robotbeat »

paxys wrote: post #46
toomuchtodo wrote: post #2

Why this is important: If successful, this contributes towards the reduction of national security risk around rare earth supplies and supply chain located in a possibly unfriendly nation state (major deposits are in Russia and China) and also means you don’t have to establish rare earth mines or supply chains in your own countries (capital and environmental concerns). It’s a big deal! Also, just as newer battery chem…

It's weird though that they are reducing reliance on China for rare earth elements while simultaneously increasing their reliance on China for manufacturing.

I don’t think they’re increasing reliance on China. A lot of the presentation seemed to be about ways they’re actually reducing dependency on China. Giga Mexico, for instance, should have lower labor costs than Giga Shanghai. Scaling up across the board reduces the need for Giga Shanghai, which Tesla relied on to keep up with global demand.

They’re also in-sourcing electronics which should help give Tesla greater supply chain control.

Plus the non-rare-earth high energy permanent magnets thing is a pretty huge blow to China’s efforts to monopolize the rare earth magnet supply chain. China produces 92% of the rare earth magnets in the world, as well as mining the vast majority of the material and also processing.

Tesla doesn’t want to cut off China. But having less reliance on China helps prevent Tesla from being manipulated by the whims of Chinese government leadership, increasing Tesla’s bargaining power in China.

Re: Tesla's next-gen electric motors will get rid of rare earth elements

#134

Post by brandonagr2 »

nlowell wrote: post #112
ajross wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it? Or is that just hyperbole? I mean, they announced every product they do deliver too, and they're selling a lot of objectively very successful products. I just don't understand the hate around this company. It's not enough to criticize, people need to deploy stuff like "virtually without meaning", or "will never do it". I mean, can't they just be like any other company that spins a bit with their product announ…

Musk has said that one of his companies will give paraplegics the ability to walk again. He's overstated and overhyped the autonomous driving capabilities a million times as well.

That is a goal and one of the end results if neuralink tech is successful one day, do you not think that idea is worth working on?

Re: Tesla's next-gen electric motors will get rid of rare earth elements

#135

Post by brandonagr2 »

FireBeyond wrote: post #33
toomuchtodo wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ehh, Tesla just sold their 4 millionth vehicle (waited until then for investor day so they could flex), are breaking ground in Mexico shortly on their new factory, and are rapidly approaching $100B/year in revenue at a 25-30% margin (while other EV startups are teetering near death and legacies are slow to catch up). Constructive skepticism is fine, but strong evidence of their innovation capacity is available (espec…

> revenue at a 25-30% margin I love how Tesla fans are so quick to applaud how much money Tesla is making from them. It seems most of "the mission" is (re-) building Musk's wealth. > such as their heat pumps The heat pumps that have been a problematic nightmare?

What problems with tesla heatpumps are you referring to? I haven't heard of any, works great in my car

Re: Tesla's next-gen electric motors will get rid of rare earth elements

#136

Post by richk449 »

Robotbeat wrote: post #126
epolanski wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But battery research is ongoing from a century at this point, we can't possibly think that Tesla just came out of nowhere and thought a solution nobody considered before such as using less rare elements. It is most certainly a trade off and I'm not seeing where the cons are mentioned. Moreover, lithium-ion batteries have by far the most efficienty energy density, so what is tesla getting rid of, most certainly not li…

Rare-earth-less high energy magnets have been the subject of research at the lab level for a while, funded at the university level by ARPA-E and elsewhere but which have never been commercialized. It is actually cutting edge work. Iron nitride magnets are probably the most likely candidate, and they can actually have higher energy than rare earth magnets, and have particularly good high temperature coercivity compare…

Interesting information. It doesn’t look like Niron is selling anything yet. Is there anyone who is?

Re: Tesla's next-gen electric motors will get rid of rare earth elements

#137

Post by brandonagr2 »

paxys wrote: post #40

Right after FSD is released and Cybertruck is on the streets and the Semi is hauling cargo and their robot is on store shelves I imagine.

Sounds like they are on track, FSD beta is in my car right now, semi is hauling cargo today, and cybertruck pre production units are on the streets. The robot is not initially intended to be on store shelves but used inside Tesla factories, still might be a year or two before it's doing useful work

Re: Tesla's next-gen electric motors will get rid of rare earth elements

#138

Post by Robotbeat »

richk449 wrote: post #136
Robotbeat wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rare-earth-less high energy magnets have been the subject of research at the lab level for a while, funded at the university level by ARPA-E and elsewhere but which have never been commercialized. It is actually cutting edge work. Iron nitride magnets are probably the most likely candidate, and they can actually have higher energy than rare earth magnets, and have particularly good high temperature coercivity compare…

Interesting information. It doesn’t look like Niron is selling anything yet. Is there anyone who is?

As far as I can tell, no. It’s mostly a lab level endeavor, funded by federal grants (with the purpose of reducing US dependence on Chinese mineral supply chain).

Re: Tesla's next-gen electric motors will get rid of rare earth elements

#139

Post by tuatoru »

epolanski wrote: post #92
toomuchtodo wrote: post #2

Why this is important: If successful, this contributes towards the reduction of national security risk around rare earth supplies and supply chain located in a possibly unfriendly nation state (major deposits are in Russia and China) and also means you don’t have to establish rare earth mines or supply chains in your own countries (capital and environmental concerns). It’s a big deal! Also, just as newer battery chem…

But battery research is ongoing from a century at this point, we can't possibly think that Tesla just came out of nowhere and thought a solution nobody considered before such as using less rare elements. It is most certainly a trade off and I'm not seeing where the cons are mentioned. Moreover, lithium-ion batteries have by far the most efficienty energy density, so what is tesla getting rid of, most certainly not li…

Every sentence of this is wrong.

Disclaimer: I am no fanboy of Tesla; I think Tesla's lunch will be eaten by BYD, either alone or together with other Chinese EV manufacturers, in part because Tesla has been resting on its laurels for so long (still selling the model S!); but facts are facts.

> But battery research is ongoing from a century...

Tesla's claim is about motors, not batteries.

Tesla has implemented solutions that no one else has, such as their "two casting chassis", which Toyota engineers recently called " a work of art" and "genius". The 4680 cylindrical battery is also a Tesla innovation.

> It is most certainly a trade off...

It is not clear at all whether this announced motor is a trade off. It may be the way ahead to further improvements in the space of EV motors. More detail would be good to have; that much is true.

> Moreover, lithium-ion batteries...[lithium] is the bulk of the battery.

Again, this is about motors, not batteries. It's eliminating the neodymium and other "rare earth"[1] elements used in the permanent magnets present in nearly all EV motors to date. No EV motors use lithium in significant amounts.

But the numeracy nazi in me must also point out that when it comes to batteries, there is more nickel than lithium, by a considerable margin, in NMC and NCA (nickel-manganese-cobalt and nickel-cobalt-aluminum) lithium-ion batteries. There is more iron than lithium in LFP lithium batteries. And depending on construction, there may be still more copper.

1. "Earth" is a now-obsolete term for "ore". These metals are not rare, but they spread themselves around, so economically minable ore bodies tend to be hard to find. The metals are not rare, but their earths are.

Re: Tesla's next-gen electric motors will get rid of rare earth elements

#140

Post by swexbe »

sundvor wrote: post #99
mym1990 wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any reason that Norway’s car brand popularity is a big deal in the larger scheme of things?

It has the highest EV penetration in the world. Nearly every single new car sold is an EV. It's therefore a great indicator about how various EVs will fare on a greater scale, perhaps.

Norway is extremely wealthy. This undoubtedly skews the results by a lot. It's a bit like extrapolating that the next big consumer car-brand is Ferrari based on your trip to Monaco.
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