Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

nationalgeographic.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

121–130 of 135 posts

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#121

Post by Retric »

twobitshifter wrote: post #115
Retric wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your chart show’s declining life expectancy from 2014-2018, but it’s recent data also disagrees with other sources. “In 2021, an American was expected to live 76.1 years—down 2.8 years from the 2014 peak of 78.9 years. This backslide has erased all life expectancy gains since 1996, according to recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.” https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2022/life-expectancy-is-decli…

Is this adjusted for the pandemic?

In what way?

The decrease in life expectancy from 2014-2018 is well before the pandemic. Going forward when say pricing life insurance it’s worth considering pandemics or at minimum the the likely endemic nature of coronavirus variants becoming endemic.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#122

Post by ryandvm »

gorjusborg wrote: post #47
melling wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100 doesn’t sound extremely optimistic. Jimmy Carter is 98. Kissinger is 100. Munger is 99. Buffett is 92, Dick Van Dyke is 97, Mel Brooks is 96,… The body can last well into the late 90’s. It’s probably just a matter of treating people who get heart disease, cancer(s), etc that will get more people there.

Right now, life expectancy in U.S. is dropping, not rising: https://datacommons.org/place/country/USA The fact that some individuals survive longer than the average isn't an indication of the average outcome. I sincerely hope that the trend does change direction, but I am currently skeptical.

Life expectancy dipped due to COVID, opioid overdoses, and suicides. They all count obviously, but the last two are particularly avoidable.

In other words, I'm not too worried about accidentally committing suicide or overdosing on heroin.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#123

Post by voisin »

diydsp wrote: post #98
Wowfunhappy wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm 29 and healthy to my knowledge. I see a doctor every year. Is there anything in particular I should be doing?

You're fine until 40. Then you have to earn your existence. You'll slowly begin lifting, stretching, vegetarian eating, cutting out other foods like sugar and saturated fat, getting the proper supplements such as D, B12. Also bringing in lots of fiber, mixing sitting and standing, various forms of stress relief like breathing, meditation, etc. Smart things to get started on now include: skin care, at least SPF and mo…

> scalp massage to reduce baldness if applicable

Is this a thing?

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#124

Post by standardUser »

Retric wrote: post #96
standardUser wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like I said in my related comment, some severe cherry-picking.

US Life expectancy fell in 10 of the last 12 years. That doesn’t seem like cherry picking to me.

We both know the trajectory has been towards longer lives and the only major aberration is the one we have just experienced due to the pandemic. Yes, you can probably find some sets of years where in increase was minimal or there was a minor decline, but the larger trend is so painfully obvious we shouldn't even be discussing it.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#125

Post by justinator »

ryandvm wrote: post #120
justinator wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would add, "don't drink alcohol", "don't smoke/vape anything", but that's just me.

Smoking sure, but mild alcohol use is pretty prevalent in all the blue zones.

I think the problem is that it has to be mild, and being an addictive substance, isn't always that easy. Have you not had a friend that had ONE drink, then became a completely different person from that point forward?

Multiply that with the fact that alcoholism not only affects the person drinking, but inherited trauma is a really terrible thing. My life expectancy and quality of life have both been severely impacted due to the drinking habits of someone who hasn't even been alive for 20 years. Maybe mild drinking will only impact your person with say: a shittier night sleeping, but a good night's sleep is one of the best things you can do for your health - and isn't even noticable perhaps until you get a few weeks in a row of it, believe me.

It's a fine line for advice, as I don't feel I'm a teetotaler, but being a culture where drinking is seen as "perfectly fine, if under control" is also not exactly the right message. My country (USA) can attribute more than a half a million deaths every year to alcohol abuse. That's not a stat one should ignore.

I actually haven't had a drink all year (and little last year). I've cut out sugary soda as well - which could be even more impactful to my overall health.

As a 40+ year old (that's scary to type), just some observations, given perspective.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#126

Post by Retric »

standardUser wrote: post #124
Retric wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

US Life expectancy fell in 10 of the last 12 years. That doesn’t seem like cherry picking to me.

We both know the trajectory has been towards longer lives and the only major aberration is the one we have just experienced due to the pandemic. Yes, you can probably find some sets of years where in increase was minimal or there was a minor decline, but the larger trend is so painfully obvious we shouldn't even be discussing it.

Every single year after 2014 has had a lower life expectancy than 2014, that’s a real indication that the long term trend has changed.

Granted we might reasonably exclude COVID when trying to figure out the trend, but even then it looks at best flat from 2010.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#127

Post by junon »

melling wrote: post #38
dnsco wrote: post #5

The optimism reminds me of all of the "In the year 2000, cars will fly!" of yore.

100 doesn’t sound extremely optimistic. Jimmy Carter is 98. Kissinger is 100. Munger is 99. Buffett is 92, Dick Van Dyke is 97, Mel Brooks is 96,… The body can last well into the late 90’s. It’s probably just a matter of treating people who get heart disease, cancer(s), etc that will get more people there.

I honestly had no idea any of those people were still alive.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#128

Post by disparate_dan »

mfer wrote: post #34

This is not likely. Life expectancy is going down while chronic disease is going up. Most of it has to do with lifestyle in ways the average person isn't aware of. The health care system is more capable than ever before. But, lifestyles that are poor to long term health are taking the trend in the opposite direction.

> The health care system is more capable than ever before

Not to take issue with your main point, but, I’d say that _medicine_ is more capable than ever before, but health care systems are struggling to deliver the benefits to growing populations, for lots of reasons like funding and budgets, education and misinformation, or ideology.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#129

Post by dumpsterlid »

standardUser wrote: post #87
anonporridge wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The data tells me you are completely wrong in your assertion. Life expectancy (in the US) has been on a very steady and continuous increase. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life... However, lifespan is a crude metric. Healthspan is really what we should be targeting. I don't want to live to 150 if 60 of those years are spend miserable in a nursing home hooked up to machines keeping me alive.

Life expectancy has actually dropped over the last two years, but it would be some severe cherry-picking to not acknowledge the role COVID played in that, let alone the multi-decade trend of increasing life expectancy overall.

[dead]
Post reply on HN