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Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

nationalgeographic.com

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Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#61

Post by ozim »

gorjusborg wrote: post #47
melling wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100 doesn’t sound extremely optimistic. Jimmy Carter is 98. Kissinger is 100. Munger is 99. Buffett is 92, Dick Van Dyke is 97, Mel Brooks is 96,… The body can last well into the late 90’s. It’s probably just a matter of treating people who get heart disease, cancer(s), etc that will get more people there.

Right now, life expectancy in U.S. is dropping, not rising: https://datacommons.org/place/country/USA The fact that some individuals survive longer than the average isn't an indication of the average outcome. I sincerely hope that the trend does change direction, but I am currently skeptical.

Minor nitpick.

Not some individuals - really wealthy individuals.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#62

Post by masklinn »

melling wrote: post #38
dnsco wrote: post #5

The optimism reminds me of all of the "In the year 2000, cars will fly!" of yore.

100 doesn’t sound extremely optimistic. Jimmy Carter is 98. Kissinger is 100. Munger is 99. Buffett is 92, Dick Van Dyke is 97, Mel Brooks is 96,… The body can last well into the late 90’s. It’s probably just a matter of treating people who get heart disease, cancer(s), etc that will get more people there.

> 100 doesn’t sound extremely optimistic.

It does.

> Jimmy Carter is 98. Kissinger is 100. Munger is 99. Buffett is 92, Dick Van Dyke is 97, Mel Brooks is 96,…

The average life expectancy at birth in the US is 77.28 (men 74.5, women 80.20), and trending down. The country with the highest life expectancy at birth is Japan with 84.62 / 81.64 / 87.74.

That some people live to 100 doesn't mean people, on average, do. People, on average, don't. People with the right generics (and ideally good medical access) may.

> Jimmy Carter is 98. Kissinger is 100. Munger is 99. Buffett is 92, Dick Van Dyke is 97, Mel Brooks is 96,…

Nixon, Reagan, and HW died at 81, 93 and 94, Ossie Davis died at 87, David Tomlinson at 83, Sally Ann Howes at 91, Lionel Jeffries at 83, ...

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#63

Post by deltree7 »

downvotetruth wrote: post #3

At the loss of a year per year https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32661789 and the current average age of death being 76, a 5 year old American today will be dead on average at 41.

Retirement for physical, strenuous work is different from retirement from knowledge work. Most 70/80/90 year olds would like to keep their brain sharp and no better way than creating artifacts (that has potential value that can be exchanged). There will be a marketplace for 70+ year gig work, especially as Gen X, Millennial hit that age

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#65

Post by valine »

gorjusborg wrote: post #47
melling wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100 doesn’t sound extremely optimistic. Jimmy Carter is 98. Kissinger is 100. Munger is 99. Buffett is 92, Dick Van Dyke is 97, Mel Brooks is 96,… The body can last well into the late 90’s. It’s probably just a matter of treating people who get heart disease, cancer(s), etc that will get more people there.

Right now, life expectancy in U.S. is dropping, not rising: https://datacommons.org/place/country/USA The fact that some individuals survive longer than the average isn't an indication of the average outcome. I sincerely hope that the trend does change direction, but I am currently skeptical.

“Life expectancy is dropping in the US” is a great clickbait headline. Life expectancy has been rising steadily for decades, with a tiny blip downwards the last two years. You think maybe that big pandemic that killed a million people in the US had anything to do it?

The handwringing about lifestyle changes is exhausting.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#66

Post by __MatrixMan__ »

melling wrote: post #23
cammikebrown wrote: post #9

I think we have fifteen years left, at most, before climate change starts making much of the planet uninhabitable

There’s no science that says that. Talk like this only gives fuel to climate change deniers.

There's also no science ruling it out. The closer you look at ecosystem complexity the clearer it becomes that we understand it well enough to make accurate predictions.

Nobody can prove that we're one keystone-species extinction away from calamity, but nobody can prove that we're not, and the rate at which species are going extinct due to our involvement is such that it's not crazy to be expect big changes over small timescales.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#67

Post by masklinn »

ozim wrote: post #61
gorjusborg wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now, life expectancy in U.S. is dropping, not rising: https://datacommons.org/place/country/USA The fact that some individuals survive longer than the average isn't an indication of the average outcome. I sincerely hope that the trend does change direction, but I am currently skeptical.

Minor nitpick. Not some individuals - really wealthy individuals.

The statement of TFA, which GP defends, is

> Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

Notably missing from the sentence: "born in rich families" and "who don't fall into the trap of lifelong substance abuse".

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#68

Post by d_tr »

Even the best lifestyle choices and preventive healthcare are not going to cut it.

Two paragraphs in, the article shoots its own title down:

> According to demographers, today’s five-year-olds have a better chance than ever of living to be centenarians, and by 2050 it’ll likely be ...

And then proceeds to offer zero actual reasons to believe even this more realistic claim, apart from some well-known but unfortunately irrelevant life expectancy trends.

I firmly believe that living long, healthy lives (100++ years) is totally possible. But biology is hard so I won't hold my breath.

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#69

Post by teaearlgraycold »

jiggyjace wrote: post #51
teaearlgraycold wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much of the planet? Really? I can understand writing off Phoenix, AZ or parts of South East Asia and the Middle East.

Phoenix being unlivable is such a fearmongered point. Much of Arizona is already out of extreme drought, and is set up to be extremely livable due to solar & nuclear power plus innovations made in air conditioning and pulling water out of the air. Sources: AZ drought monitor: https://www.drought.gov/states/arizona The most powerful nuclear plant is in AZ: https://electricenergyonline.com/article/energy/category/gen..…

It's more of a meme: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PYt0SDnrBE

Re: Today's 5-year-olds will likely live to 100

#70

Post by Wowfunhappy »

terran57 wrote: post #45
mfer wrote: post #34

This is not likely. Life expectancy is going down while chronic disease is going up. Most of it has to do with lifestyle in ways the average person isn't aware of. The health care system is more capable than ever before. But, lifestyles that are poor to long term health are taking the trend in the opposite direction.

Exactly, people aren't taking care of themselves so that they don't get the chronic diseases that reduce their lifespans. The majority don't realize that what they do in their middle-age years has a profound impact on their life expectancy.

I'm 29 and healthy to my knowledge. I see a doctor every year. Is there anything in particular I should be doing?
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