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Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

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Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#651
post #580

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the time trump and his people were first pushing lab leak/bio-weapon conspiracies it was without evidence (and Occam's Razor isn't evidence), and worse the actual evidence we did have at the time suggested it wasn't leaked from a lab. That didn't stop the "crazies" from insisting it was true though. Anyone can have their own theory of things, but what separates Trump and the "crazies" from the rest of us (includin…

Lab leak and bio weapon are two completely different theories, and conflating them means you don't actually bother to learn the argument of the opposing side(s), before dismissing them as "crazies". I think if you attempt to have serious discussion the minimum you should do is to learn what the disagreement is about. If you don't bother to do even that, then what's the point in it? Just booing the outgroup one more t…

> Lab leak and bio weapon are two completely different theories, and conflating them means you don't actually bother to learn the argument of the opposing side(s), before dismissing them as "crazies".

I never said they were the same thing. They are different, but they were both BS conspiracy theories because they were pushed without sufficient evidence to support them and while ignoring stronger evidence for other theories.

> I'm not sure what group you mean here, but that was certainly not mainstream media,

the mainstream media acknowledged that the science was still primarily, and that there were a lot of questions, but they mostly reported on our best understanding of the facts that we have and not on conspiracy theories that ignored our best understanding of the facts that we had.

> "The Experts (TM)" and the medical-political establishment. Those spent 100% of the effort on suppressing any possibility of the lab leak theory being seriously considered and investigated and declaring anybody who disagreed "crazies", and 0% of the effort investigating anything.

Who exactly is the ""The Experts (TM)" and the medical-political establishment"? As you yourself acknowledge scientists and governments continued to investigate the origins of the virus including the possibility of a lab leak to find evidence.

> I think mentioning people who considered lab leak theory a viable possibility together with people who beat up Asian people on the street, or even suggesting that there's a connection between the two, they have a common cause, and the former bear any responsibility on the latter - is an extremely dishonest move and you should apologize for making such connection.

I clearly made a distinction between the people who believed a BS conspiracy theory and acted on it (in some cases by beating asian people) and those who accepted it was possible, and investigated that, but followed the available evidence and supported the theory that best fit the facts that we had.

> By the time the "bat soup" theory was declared the only truth possible

Declared by who? When? There was constant questioning of the origin and acknowledgement that there were multiple conflicting theories in mainstream media. I don't know where you were getting your information from, but it sounds like you weren't paying much attention to what mainstream media was actually saying.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#652
They have not found the origin of the virus after testing every animal they could possibly test.. what was being done in the lab is still hidden => most likely it came from the lab.

So the deadliest epidemic since Spanish flu has been caused by gain of function research supported in part by US, with people responsible in control of fighting the pandemic when it started. Said people then labeled leak theory a conspiracy theory and tried to suppress it. If there is any justice in the world they should all be dragged in front of the judge and spend rest of their life in a cell. But there isn't and they attached themselves to useful political masters who will protect them.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#653

There's a lot of bad headline-writing on this subject today. Here's the NYT's headline: Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says And then the sub-head (or dek, if you want to sound like you're in the know): The conclusion, which was made with “low confidence,” came as America’s intelligence agencies remained divided over the origins of the coronavirus. So we have a conclusion: 'lab leak most likely cau…

The headline is absolutely, literally true. I also don't understand the nuance that anyone could miss here. The astounding thing is that the Energy Dept. can say that a lab leak is the most likely cause of the pandemic, and people jump out in front of them to say that what they somehow still mean is that a lab leak wasn't the cause of the pandemic. They have "low confidence" that it was a lab leak ( there might not e…

The headline is literally true in a certain, non-colloquial usage of the term "most likely". It's is also true to claim that Covid-19 was more likely not because of a lab leak. That's what "low confidence" means. If you could bet at even odds that it was a lab leak, and the bet could be settled by some omniscient force, you'd be a fool to take the bet.

The fact the chances of it being a lab leak are so high does mean something, and I'd like to see those odds be lower for any future scenario, but to think that implies we can say with confidence "that's what happened" is, as was clearly stated, wrong.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#654
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course there's a reservoir. That's why there was a lab in the first place. There are many more viruses in those caves. Many many. And tourists literally pay money to go into such caves, and look up to the ceiling to look at the bats. Bats that may at any time shit into their eye with one of these new viruses. And then on top of that people catch them and sell them live to slaughter them at home to eat. Again, this…

In general I am of the opinion that all species have a place in nature, but when it comes to bats, I tend to think that their especially high viral load and elevated metabolism makes them a breeding ground for pandemics and I wouldn't mind if they were eradicated. Other species can fulfill their niches in the ecosystem.

How moderate of you!

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#655
post #378

The lab leak hypothesis makes the most sense. The lab in Wuhan which researches coronaviruses conducts experiences on animals, including bats. Like other labs, there are dedicated personnel for hydrating and feeding the experimental animals. Notably, there are "wet markets" in Wuhan where live animals are sold, including bats, which harbor coronaviruses. Someone who is working in the facility in charge of maintenance…

[flagged]

We've banned this account for breaking the site guidelines and ignoring our request to stop. You can't abuse HN like this, regardless of how stupid someone else's theory is or you feel it is.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#656
post #630

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does no one else on earth remember the initial videos out of China of people laying dead on the streets? Does no one else remeber the WHO refusing to acknowledge Taiwan is its own state? I really struggle that anyone is seriously buying a single “truth” that is coming out of China. I don’t know it was a lab leak, but I agree, if you are at all reasonable you can just see that China thinks it was.

I remember viral videos of big halls and hallways full of spastic people strapped into their beds. I still wonder sometimes what that was all about. Who had an interest in spreading such videos? What outcome did they hope for / get?

[deleted]

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#657
post #106

How can they tell the difference between a lab leak and a deliberate release to explore the world's reaction to a viral weapon?

Because deliberately releasing a virus that is so infectious that it will cause a global pandemic and will inevitably hit your own country is a bloody stupid thing to do. Everyone loses, unless you already have a vaccine that you can sell. And if you are trying to insinuate that it might have been the Chinese that released it, it becomes even more bloody stupid, because you would obviously never release it on your ow…

I believe that you have missed the potential significance of Xi's use of massive authoritarian control. Not using vaccines could have been a test to see whether his control would give him a critical advantage over other countries lacking his control. Were a weapon so powerful that the rest of the world could not control it with vaccines, China might come out the most powerful country in the world. If so, then he has learned that the strategy would not work.

Regarding your other arguments, Xi controls what the rest of the world knows about China. He could hide whatever he wanted to.

You seem to be implying that I am "bloody stupid." You are wrong.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#659
post #530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A "sightly-less-shitty-than-other-theories" theory is still a shitty theory. Low-confidence means exactly what it sounds like.

Where’s your comment from two years ago belittling the wet market theory as shitty? This whole saga is a damning indictment of: science journalism, government agencies’ public engagement, scientists’ public engagement, and the critical reasoning skills of middlebrow audiences.

I saw a lot of folks saying that the theories all kinda stank at the time, and to wait and see. Interestingly, a lot of folks also kept quiet and didn't champion any theories. Maybe I can link you to a lack of comment two years ago to back up my bona fides?

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#660

There's a lot of bad headline-writing on this subject today. Here's the NYT's headline: Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says And then the sub-head (or dek, if you want to sound like you're in the know): The conclusion, which was made with “low confidence,” came as America’s intelligence agencies remained divided over the origins of the coronavirus. So we have a conclusion: 'lab leak most likely cau…

Well you didn’t just out and expect the US gov officials to say “lol yeah it was us, we were messing around with stuff we shouldn’t have been and is actively outlawed in US territories”, did you?

The connections to eco health alliance were all laid out a long time ago

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