Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

571–580 of 1001 posts

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#571

Post by SubiculumCode »

boxed wrote: post #242
goolulusaurs wrote: post #192

IMO, it seems obvious from the behavior of China's government that they know it is a lab leak. If it wasn't a lab leak, then presumably there is an animal reservoir of the virus somewhere in China, but as far as I know they haven't claimed to have found it. But if there is an animal reservoir of the virus in China, then how could the Chinese government ever expect a lockdown to work? A lockdown on travel would only r…

Of course there's a reservoir. That's why there was a lab in the first place. There are many more viruses in those caves. Many many. And tourists literally pay money to go into such caves, and look up to the ceiling to look at the bats. Bats that may at any time shit into their eye with one of these new viruses. And then on top of that people catch them and sell them live to slaughter them at home to eat. Again, this…

In general I am of the opinion that all species have a place in nature, but when it comes to bats, I tend to think that their especially high viral load and elevated metabolism makes them a breeding ground for pandemics and I wouldn't mind if they were eradicated. Other species can fulfill their niches in the ecosystem.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#573

Post by GenerocUsername »

smsm42 wrote: post #320
GenerocUsername wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Everybody remembers it. Some try to crimestop it, but everybody knows it happened. The right thing would be to admit the screw up, apologize to people who were unjustifiably accused and suppressed, and try to do better next time. But I don't see much readiness to do this, unfortunately.

Real people remember it. There is a chilling-effect coming from a few institution-level controlling pillars of our society.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#574

Post by salawat »

t-3 wrote: post #510
somewhereoutth wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this is (one reason) why so many are keen to believe Lab Leak - because then it was done by 'bad humans' and so can be fixed, instead of being (another) consequence of our encroachment on the natural world and indeed something that often just happens. Much easier to believe the 'baddies' have been found and 'brought to justice' than having to face up to the world we live in and our effect on it.

What? Why would anyone be punished for an unintentional lab leak? Scientists are also humans that can make mistakes.

If a practicing engineer is ultimatrly responsible for a catastrophic outcome of a design they signed off on, I can see a case for shoddy virologists with bad lab practices being held ultimately responsible for what they ultimately leak.

When what you make has the potential to impact billions; no offense, but I expect you to be a bit more hardcore about your adherence to safe practices of your trade.

If this means the only people who end up becoming virologists and doing work that conceivably leads to the creation of pandemic pathogens are the most hardcore mf'ers with a boner for safety, perfectionism , and preserving their own skin; ...I'm actually okay with that.

I'll even sweeten the pot. Lets extend that to Software Engineers and get a PE program for that sorted.

Consistency after all.

Long story short: "Oopsie" as an excuse stops applying when your body count becomes non-zero.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#575

Post by Izkata »

fidgewidge wrote: post #73
denotational wrote: post #24

Without meaning to take a position either way, as a non-American, why does the Energy Department have a position on this? I’m aware that the Energy Department has sone degree of responsibility for the US nuclear arsenal, but even taking that into account, it seems out of scope.

The US government is so large and sprawling that essentially every agency concerns itself with every possible topic.

Another example - the CDC expanded itself to health in general and involves itself with gun violence: https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/firearms/fastfact.htm...

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#576

Post by bradleyjg »

axxto wrote: post #530
pessimizer wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The headline is absolutely, literally true. I also don't understand the nuance that anyone could miss here. The astounding thing is that the Energy Dept. can say that a lab leak is the most likely cause of the pandemic, and people jump out in front of them to say that what they somehow still mean is that a lab leak wasn't the cause of the pandemic. They have "low confidence" that it was a lab leak ( there might not e…

A "sightly-less-shitty-than-other-theories" theory is still a shitty theory. Low-confidence means exactly what it sounds like.

Where’s your comment from two years ago belittling the wet market theory as shitty?

This whole saga is a damning indictment of: science journalism, government agencies’ public engagement, scientists’ public engagement, and the critical reasoning skills of middlebrow audiences.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#577

Post by dmix »

tim333 wrote: post #538
goolulusaurs wrote: post #192

IMO, it seems obvious from the behavior of China's government that they know it is a lab leak. If it wasn't a lab leak, then presumably there is an animal reservoir of the virus somewhere in China, but as far as I know they haven't claimed to have found it. But if there is an animal reservoir of the virus in China, then how could the Chinese government ever expect a lockdown to work? A lockdown on travel would only r…

There are other Chinese government behaviours also. If it wasn't a lab leak why not publish the Wuhan labs database which was public until the outbreak? I know they say hacking but they could just make a copy and upload it somewhere. Also after Xi's first speech on covid his civil servants put out instructions to improve biosecurity at the virus labs. And lots of little things that seem a bit odd.

The only counterpoints are a) China is highly insular and rarely plays ball on even basic stuff and b) the whole Chinese idea of "saving face" where even when a person in power obviously messes up you still don't take the Western "brutally honest" approach, you do the opposite and pretend everything is still normal out of 'respect' (and in protection) of the person's social standing. The consequences happen quietly behind doors.

China not playing ball is like saying "I won't even give such a suggestion my time, how dare you ask me that".

That said - I fully agree it would have done leagues to help the narratives if they did play ball. Hell, the suggestion is that it was an accident in the first place. That should say enough on it's own if it's true.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#578

Post by yakubin »

zamadatix wrote: post #527
pessimizer wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The headline is absolutely, literally true. I also don't understand the nuance that anyone could miss here. The astounding thing is that the Energy Dept. can say that a lab leak is the most likely cause of the pandemic, and people jump out in front of them to say that what they somehow still mean is that a lab leak wasn't the cause of the pandemic. They have "low confidence" that it was a lab leak ( there might not e…

How can "low confidence" and "higher confidence than all other theories combined" jive? Does it require "all other theories" to not include "we don't have a clue" which is the most likely of all or am I missing something else?

"we don't have a clue" is not a theory about the origin. It's a theory about your knowledge of the origin. It's not in the pool of competing theories you're considering in this context.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#579

Post by chasd00 »

frank_nitti wrote: post #500
boopmaster wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This. Low confidence still significant in that it could have been “low confidence transmission from wet market game”, but that’s not the direction this landed on. It’s likely a lab leak, says the report, but there’s too many gaps to support higher certainty.

Exactly - and how many were mocked, ridiculed, cancelled for even floating the idea of the lab leak; it was labeled as a BS conspiracy theory. Many, even some in this thread, are eager to minimize this story if they participated in ridiculing the fringe voices who kept questioning the official narrative. Better to have this quickly fade into oblivion lest they be outed as having placed their blind faith in false prop…

I hope this goes to show how dangerous social media censorship is. Social media has completely ruined all their credit as arbiters of truth. I never trusted the group think in the first place and feel fortunate they all so completely and quickly fell on their face. I pray no one trusts their judgment ever again.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#580

Post by smsm42 »

autoexec wrote: post #542
jonhohle wrote: post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are the pejoratives really necessary? From the beginning the "lab leak" theory satisfied Occam's Razor more than the convoluted "wet market" theory or the "pangolin" theory. Meanwhile, a lot of departments at a lot of universities got a lot of funding to pursue their pet theories.

At the time trump and his people were first pushing lab leak/bio-weapon conspiracies it was without evidence (and Occam's Razor isn't evidence), and worse the actual evidence we did have at the time suggested it wasn't leaked from a lab. That didn't stop the "crazies" from insisting it was true though. Anyone can have their own theory of things, but what separates Trump and the "crazies" from the rest of us (includin…

Lab leak and bio weapon are two completely different theories, and conflating them means you don't actually bother to learn the argument of the opposing side(s), before dismissing them as "crazies". I think if you attempt to have serious discussion the minimum you should do is to learn what the disagreement is about. If you don't bother to do even that, then what's the point in it? Just booing the outgroup one more time?

> is that one group accepted the possibility and investigated that

I'm not sure what group you mean here, but that was certainly not mainstream media, "The Experts (TM)" and the medical-political establishment. Those spent 100% of the effort on suppressing any possibility of the lab leak theory being seriously considered and investigated and declaring anybody who disagreed "crazies", and 0% of the effort investigating anything. To the honor of the actual scientific community, they managed to fight back and re-legitimize the leak theory, but it took significant time and effort, and significant struggle. And the PR damage (and career damage, etc.) to the people who dared to dissent was already done.

> and beating up random Asian people in the streets

I think mentioning people who considered lab leak theory a viable possibility together with people who beat up Asian people on the street, or even suggesting that there's a connection between the two, they have a common cause, and the former bear any responsibility on the latter - is an extremely dishonest move and you should apologize for making such connection.

> "Crazies" went all in regardless of evidence or reason, and for that the pejorative is well earned.

The "bat soup" propagandists went all in much further than the "crazies" - while the crazies only talked about the possibility of the lab leak (or bioweapon lab, ok) - the non-crazies banned, fired, ruined careers, declared opponents racist, and all that with even less evidence - at least for the lab leak theory there's a lab to leak from. By the time the "bat soup" theory was declared the only truth possible there was nothing to support it evidentially, let alone on the level of the only viable possibility. So "the crazies" earned their name, then "bat soup" propagandists must be named "super crazies on crazy juice while taking crazy pills and bathing in the crazy ocean". Or we can go back to actually discussing the evidence, if anybody is interested in that, of course.

Post reply on HN