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Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

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Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#541

Post by tripletao »

mikeyouse wrote: post #487
tripletao wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess you're referring here to Flo Débarre's misleading tweet, which you linked to four months ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33247997 As I noted in my reply at that time, everyone has always agreed that the overall server remained intermittently accessible until Feb 2020. The particular database "was not accessed from outside of the WIV after 12 September 2019", though.

Right, a database put online in June 2019 - widely claimed to be “suspiciously removed” in Sept 2019, actually wasn’t. It was available into 2020 at which point after a bunch of hacking attempts, they took it down. And certainly “everyone hasn’t agreed” because in every thread about the topic people imply like this 6 Month old database is a smoking gun when it’s self evidently not.

I don't think the server is conclusive evidence of anything, but your representation seems misleading to me. The date when the information became publicly unavailable seems like the relevant one to me, even if the server remained connected to the Internet for a few months afterward.

And you seriously believe their claim that it was taken down due to "hacking attempts"? Given the international importance of the subject, is there really no one anywhere in China who can keep a simple database-backed website running? Or could they not share the information in a form that obviously presents no information security risk, like a dump on a flash drive?

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#542

Post by autoexec »

jonhohle wrote: post #498
brookst wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it has more to do with the fact that one opinion is supported by more conspiracy nuts. Doesn’t mean it isn’t the right answer, but having lots of crazies insisting it is the only possible answer makes more grounded people less credible in the eyes of others.

Are the pejoratives really necessary? From the beginning the "lab leak" theory satisfied Occam's Razor more than the convoluted "wet market" theory or the "pangolin" theory. Meanwhile, a lot of departments at a lot of universities got a lot of funding to pursue their pet theories.

At the time trump and his people were first pushing lab leak/bio-weapon conspiracies it was without evidence (and Occam's Razor isn't evidence), and worse the actual evidence we did have at the time suggested it wasn't leaked from a lab. That didn't stop the "crazies" from insisting it was true though.

Anyone can have their own theory of things, but what separates Trump and the "crazies" from the rest of us (including many of those who suspected the lab leak theory was true) is that one group accepted the possibility and investigated that, while the others were running around calling for "china to pay" and beating up random Asian people in the streets at a time when the evidence we had for the the lab leak theory was weaker than the evidence we had for other theories.

Even today, while the evidence is inconclusive, what changed was that we have additional evidence that has raised the level of credibility of the lab leak theory.

"Crazies" went all in regardless of evidence or reason, and for that the pejorative is well earned.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#543

Post by conception »

goolulusaurs wrote: post #192

IMO, it seems obvious from the behavior of China's government that they know it is a lab leak. If it wasn't a lab leak, then presumably there is an animal reservoir of the virus somewhere in China, but as far as I know they haven't claimed to have found it. But if there is an animal reservoir of the virus in China, then how could the Chinese government ever expect a lockdown to work? A lockdown on travel would only r…

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-07766-9

It took years to discover the location for the SARS bats. China is large, undeveloped and has lots and lots of bats.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#544

Post by dangwhy »

axxto wrote: post #530
pessimizer wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The headline is absolutely, literally true. I also don't understand the nuance that anyone could miss here. The astounding thing is that the Energy Dept. can say that a lab leak is the most likely cause of the pandemic, and people jump out in front of them to say that what they somehow still mean is that a lab leak wasn't the cause of the pandemic. They have "low confidence" that it was a lab leak ( there might not e…

A "sightly-less-shitty-than-other-theories" theory is still a shitty theory. Low-confidence means exactly what it sounds like.

then why even propose any theory ? why not let it remain a mystery.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#545

Post by rvz »

Fabeltjeskrant wrote: post #251

So much fake news and propaganda out there, who knows what to believe.

Well thanks to ChatGPT which that was the so-called 'supposed' revolution that will change everything, hailed by the media and on HN, without advanced detectors it will be even worse.

I guess it is useful to creative liars, bull-shitters and people who are masters of manipulation.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#546

Post by weaksauce »

fwungy wrote: post #539

On the upside, we advanced mRNA vaccine technology faster than it ever could have been done under the normal overly cautious test protocols. This technology is going to save countless lives and healtcare dollars in the future, so it was for the best, even if it was an accident.

> On the upside, we advanced mRNA vaccine technology faster than it ever could have been done under the normal overly cautious test protocols.

that's not quite true. they didn't change anything fundamental in the test protocols they just compressed them a bit and cut out some red tape by submitting some things early instead of at the end of the trials like it would normally be done. it also reached the endpoints faster because they could get significant data because the virus was so contagious; it's not like some other virus that spreads much slower like say aids.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#547

Post by kilgnad »

pessimizer wrote: post #511
aaronbrethorst wrote: post #151

There's a lot of bad headline-writing on this subject today. Here's the NYT's headline: Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says And then the sub-head (or dek, if you want to sound like you're in the know): The conclusion, which was made with “low confidence,” came as America’s intelligence agencies remained divided over the origins of the coronavirus. So we have a conclusion: 'lab leak most likely cau…

The headline is absolutely, literally true. I also don't understand the nuance that anyone could miss here. The astounding thing is that the Energy Dept. can say that a lab leak is the most likely cause of the pandemic, and people jump out in front of them to say that what they somehow still mean is that a lab leak wasn't the cause of the pandemic. They have "low confidence" that it was a lab leak ( there might not e…

No. Low confidence means they have a bunch of crap theories. The lab leak theory is simply the least crappy theory.

That's the nuance.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#548

Post by logicalmonster »

cycrutchfield wrote: post #239
ThePhantom wrote: post #205

The lab leak hypothesis makes the most sense. The lab in Wuhan which researches coronaviruses conducts experiences on animals, including bats. Like other labs, there are dedicated personnel for hydrating and feeding the experimental animals. Notably, there are "wet markets" in Wuhan where live animals are sold, including bats, which harbor coronaviruses. Someone who is working in the facility in charge of maintenance…

There were no bats being sold in the Wuhan wet markets. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-91470-2

> On each visit, vendors were asked what species they had sold over the preceding month and in what numbers, along with the prices (US$1:RMB¥6.759) and origin of these goods (wild caught or captive bred/ farmed).

It might be true that no bats were sold in Wuhan wet markets, but this methodology doesn't seem the slightest bit credible.

Imagine if you were selling bats (is that legal in China?) from a likely illegal source (probably illegal in China?). Would you give honest information about the animals you were selling, particularly knowing how criminals can be treated in China?

You might as well ask suspected drug dealers how much crack they're selling in schools: you'll get the same quality of answer.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#549

Post by yieldcrv »

goolulusaurs wrote: post #192

IMO, it seems obvious from the behavior of China's government that they know it is a lab leak. If it wasn't a lab leak, then presumably there is an animal reservoir of the virus somewhere in China, but as far as I know they haven't claimed to have found it. But if there is an animal reservoir of the virus in China, then how could the Chinese government ever expect a lockdown to work? A lockdown on travel would only r…

There are many autonomous aspects of China.

Just like we in the US have 6 federal agencies doing separate investigations barely sharing anything and coming to different conclusions.

Despite Beijing’s absolute power over everything there, the National Standing Committee has lots of people to please too and thats just in Beijing. There are provincial governments and stuff too.

Rules for rulers.

Re: Lab leak most likely origin of Covid-19 pandemic, U.S. agency now says

#550

Post by kilgnad »

zamadatix wrote: post #527
pessimizer wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The headline is absolutely, literally true. I also don't understand the nuance that anyone could miss here. The astounding thing is that the Energy Dept. can say that a lab leak is the most likely cause of the pandemic, and people jump out in front of them to say that what they somehow still mean is that a lab leak wasn't the cause of the pandemic. They have "low confidence" that it was a lab leak ( there might not e…

How can "low confidence" and "higher confidence than all other theories combined" jive? Does it require "all other theories" to not include "we don't have a clue" which is the most likely of all or am I missing something else?

Imagine you have a bunch of crappy and unrealistic theories about why something occured.

What those phrases mean is that the lab leak is simply the least crappy theory.

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