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Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

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Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#61

Post by noodlesUK »

strict9 wrote: post #47
legrande wrote: post #19

We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency and then the Wolf of Wall Street types co-opted it and ruined it for everyone pulling off the most sophisticated Ponzi schemes in history. The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld (who have to somehow convert to fiat privately using novel techniques, and that gets harder with regulation and sanctions and outright banning of tumbler systems).

> The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld You must not have a need to send money to recipients in other countries. I tried every option I could find until giving up in frustration and sending crypto instead. Not denying the negative aspects but it's a privileged position to assert criminality is the only use case.

I’m curious, what countries are you trying to send money between?

I’ve only ever really transacted with big countries’ currencies (EUR, USD, GBP, etc.), and I’ve found that the ordinary banking systems (especially with fintech like Wise) serve me quite well for this use case. I’d love to hear more about the flipside of that.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#62

Post by giraffe_lady »

danschuller wrote: post #38
giraffe_lady wrote: post #3

Maybe it'll cause him to reflect on some of his other techno-optimism too. I like stephenson fine but he has a huge blind spot about the role of tech companies in positive transformations. I read seveneves a couple years ago and it was so intensely offputting to see obvious neil degrasse tyson and elon musk standins in straightforwardly heroic roles. For someone with such a sophisticated eye for power and change it j…

Maybe you already know but it was purposely written to be optimistic. https://web.archive.org/web/20120319135605/http://www.worldp... The idea being sci-fi feeds scientific discovery, but recent sci-fi had stopped doing this, so it was an attempt to address this.

I could have been more clear I guess. It's not the optimism about the future that bothers me, or even about technology per se. It's the apparent belief that irreverent vision-driven geniuses leading technology-focused companies is a coherent path into a positive future.

To me this view is extremely american, contemporary and unproven, having emerged just in the last few decades and already running into serious issues with its viability as a mechanism for wide spread long term positive change.

It's not that I mind someone exploring this model, or portraying it in fiction. I think it's a backdrop for some genuinely interesting and dynamic conflicts, as demonstrated by the book itself.

My issue is that this system has been taking on an almost religion-like character in some groups, and stephenson seems to be a true believer. Again not necessarily a mortal sin, but it leaves him with some blind spots that are frustrating as a reader and as someone who is also, on a good day, an optimist about technology and the future.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#63

Post by drexlspivey »

swarnie wrote: post #46
j0hnyl wrote: post #33

Is that why he's dropping an NFT collection? https://metaverse.sothebys.com/snow-crash/lots/infocalypse

People still do that? I thought we all collectively agreed it was dumb 18 months ago.

They are doing it on bitcoin now by storing the whole image data in a transaction. Someone minted a full block (4MB) NFT yesterday. Since these transactions are considered non-standard and won’t be propagated by nodes they have to go directly to the miner out of band. The 4MB paid no transaction fee put payed the miner $18000 privately

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#64

Post by arcticbull »

leppr wrote: post #54
legrande wrote: post #19

We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency and then the Wolf of Wall Street types co-opted it and ruined it for everyone pulling off the most sophisticated Ponzi schemes in history. The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld (who have to somehow convert to fiat privately using novel techniques, and that gets harder with regulation and sanctions and outright banning of tumbler systems).

The "Wolf of Wall Street" types and various "crypto-bros" didn't "ruin it for everyone". They tarnished the connotation of the word "cryptocurrency", and wasted a lot of people of a lot of money. But their work has been mostly orthogonal to the real work on decentralized networks being done. > The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld This conclusion doesn't follow, neither logically nor empirically…

It's been 14 years, billions in investment and roughly speaking zero non-criminal usage and no real-world killer use cases. That's just fact. Time to move on.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#65

Post by partiallypro »

legrande wrote: post #19

We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency and then the Wolf of Wall Street types co-opted it and ruined it for everyone pulling off the most sophisticated Ponzi schemes in history. The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld (who have to somehow convert to fiat privately using novel techniques, and that gets harder with regulation and sanctions and outright banning of tumbler systems).

I think there are use cases in countries that have currency collapses, but that doesn't happen at a high enough rate for it to be commercially viable. At this point it's pure speculation.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#66

Post by senthil_rajasek »

taeric wrote: post #56
senthil_rajasek wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Same as the paper in my wallet. Except paper money is understood and used by all today to make transactions and thus useful.

I don't feel that is changing my point at all? It is the value others put in that paper that makes it worth trading.

The value of paper money is in it's utility as a transaction aid. It has currency.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#67

Post by dopidopHN »

rco8786 wrote: post #40
deweller wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The illicit share of all cryptocurrency transaction volume in 2022 was 0.24%. https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2023-crypto-crime-repor...

Sorry but how on earth is this data supposed to be reliable when the underlying transactions are explicitly anonymous

They are pseudo-anonymous at best.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#68

Post by partiallypro »

rco8786 wrote: post #40
deweller wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The illicit share of all cryptocurrency transaction volume in 2022 was 0.24%. https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2023-crypto-crime-repor...

Sorry but how on earth is this data supposed to be reliable when the underlying transactions are explicitly anonymous

Not only that, but speculative trading volume isn't the same as a normal transaction like buying a pizza. You can't count that in the numbers, but these numbers don't seem to indicate they are eliminating that noise. They do explicitly say they don't include ponzi schemes that have collapsed as "elicit."

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#69

Post by thepasswordis »

this_user wrote: post #58
thepasswordis wrote: post #10

I'm somewhat outrageously bullish on cryptocurrency, but still lovingly refer to it as 'fake internet money'.

Why? It has been 15 years. If it were actually useful, it would have been widely adopted by now. Crypto currencies are the Segway of money.

At this point I don't think there is anything I'm going to tell you in a short hacker news comment that will convince you that currency is useful.

Sergey Nazarov's interview on Lex Fridman lays out some uses for smart contracts if you are actually interested in it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPXTmVdlyoc&t=4s

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#70

Post by JohnFen »

Y_Y wrote: post #51
badcppdev wrote: post #9

Anyone who has read Cryptonomicon should remember that the hero protagonists went to a lot of effort to secure a large mass of gold to 'back' the currency they wanted to create. The Baroque Trilogy is less clear as Isaac Newton mints new currency. Does that mean that perhaps Stephenson's opinions were always that currency needs to be backed by something whether it is gold or national borders.

Real Newton worked at the mint too, it may not necessarily represent Stephenson's views. Doesn't Snow Crash have hyperinflation followed by a plethora of private fiat currencies?

It does, yes. I think a lot of people haven't read the book or have forgotten that the world of Snow Crash is an extreme dystopia -- certainly not the sort of world most people want to live in.

That's why I was so baffled as to why Facebook glommed on to the term "metaverse" with such fervor. The "metaverse" comes from that book, and is a major aspect of the dystopia. The term does not have positive connotations.

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