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Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

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Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#41

Post by giraffe_lady »

petesergeant wrote: post #8
giraffe_lady wrote: post #3

Maybe it'll cause him to reflect on some of his other techno-optimism too. I like stephenson fine but he has a huge blind spot about the role of tech companies in positive transformations. I read seveneves a couple years ago and it was so intensely offputting to see obvious neil degrasse tyson and elon musk standins in straightforwardly heroic roles. For someone with such a sophisticated eye for power and change it j…

The real Rorschach test here is who Julia Bliss Flaherty is meant to be: HRC or Sarah Palin (who was still relevant in 2015)

Interestingly I didn't read her as being as clearly based on any real figure, just a kind of personification of political hubris and hypocrisy. The other two are also I think definitely mixes of multiple real people though so why not her also.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#42

Post by CBarkleyU »

deweller wrote: post #29
legrande wrote: post #19

We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency and then the Wolf of Wall Street types co-opted it and ruined it for everyone pulling off the most sophisticated Ponzi schemes in history. The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld (who have to somehow convert to fiat privately using novel techniques, and that gets harder with regulation and sanctions and outright banning of tumbler systems).

The illicit share of all cryptocurrency transaction volume in 2022 was 0.24%. https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2023-crypto-crime-repor...

Quoting:

[1] Notes on our illicit transaction volume chart:

These are lower bound estimates that will likely rise over time as additional illicit activity is discovered.

This does not include off-chain criminal activity where proceeds may have been moved into crypto for laundering, though that activity can still be traced.

This does not include volumes associated with centralized services that collapsed in 2022, some of which are facing charges of fraud, given lack of off-chain insights.

Funds received by sanctioned entity Garantex accounts for much of 2022’s illicit volume. While most of that activity is likely Russian users using a Russian exchange, most compliance professionals treat this as illicit activity.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#43

Post by arethuza »

badcppdev wrote: post #9

Anyone who has read Cryptonomicon should remember that the hero protagonists went to a lot of effort to secure a large mass of gold to 'back' the currency they wanted to create. The Baroque Trilogy is less clear as Isaac Newton mints new currency. Does that mean that perhaps Stephenson's opinions were always that currency needs to be backed by something whether it is gold or national borders.

Nitpick: Isn't it the Baroque Cycle?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Baroque_Cycle

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#45

Post by senthil_rajasek »

taeric wrote: post #22

This reads oddly to me. In particular, I don't see what makes any of this narrative different to anything else you can make or sell. Indeed, most folks that are making money are doing it by selling their labor or thought work. That is, any discussion of "intrinsic value" is doomed to be axiomatic. Things have value largely because we agree for them to have value. And indeed, a ton of "wealth" is built up on the value…

>Same as the paper in my wallet.

Except paper money is understood and used by all today to make transactions and thus useful.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#47

Post by strict9 »

legrande wrote: post #19

We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency and then the Wolf of Wall Street types co-opted it and ruined it for everyone pulling off the most sophisticated Ponzi schemes in history. The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld (who have to somehow convert to fiat privately using novel techniques, and that gets harder with regulation and sanctions and outright banning of tumbler systems).

>The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld

You must not have a need to send money to recipients in other countries.

I tried every option I could find until giving up in frustration and sending crypto instead.

Not denying the negative aspects but it's a privileged position to assert criminality is the only use case.

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#48

Post by bko »

legrande wrote: post #19

We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency and then the Wolf of Wall Street types co-opted it and ruined it for everyone pulling off the most sophisticated Ponzi schemes in history. The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld (who have to somehow convert to fiat privately using novel techniques, and that gets harder with regulation and sanctions and outright banning of tumbler systems).

I guess you're technically in the criminal underworld if you want to hold a currency not approved by your state or you want to send money to a family member in [bad country]

https://www.reuters.com/article/argentina-dollars/argentina-...

Re: Neal Stephenson doesn't seem keen on crypto anymore

#49

Post by rhaway84773 »

deweller wrote: post #29
legrande wrote: post #19

We all started off enthused about cryptocurrency and then the Wolf of Wall Street types co-opted it and ruined it for everyone pulling off the most sophisticated Ponzi schemes in history. The only use-case for it now is for the criminal underworld (who have to somehow convert to fiat privately using novel techniques, and that gets harder with regulation and sanctions and outright banning of tumbler systems).

The illicit share of all cryptocurrency transaction volume in 2022 was 0.24%. https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2023-crypto-crime-repor...

What would be more interesting is what percentage of real world economic activity, as opposed to currency exchanges, is made up of illicit activity.

Money transfers, goods purchases, etc. as opposed to converting BTC into USDC.

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