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Intermittent fasting associated with increased risk of early death

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Re: Intermittent fasting associated with increased risk of early death

#31

The study period is from 1999 to 2014. IF wasn't a mainstream practice then - meaning that the bulk of people who try to eat healthy may have been targeting more meals in that period than recent years. Just a possible hypothesis.

I thought IF was more popular in the 90s than it is now.

Re: Intermittent fasting associated with increased risk of early death

#32
The title is "Meal Skipping and Shorter Meal Intervals...". That's not much like "intermittent fasting", which brings to mind things like not eating for a 24 hour period rather than skipping breakfast. The actual title of the paper would be a much more appropriate title for this post.

Re: Intermittent fasting associated with increased risk of early death

#33

Am I wrong to have suspicions about the possibility that food conglomerates may have funded this study? I am not a conspiracy theorist, but with the number of dietary science that turned out to be wrong over time, I must be skeptical about every new study.

> with the number of dietary science that turned out to be wrong over time, I must be skeptical about every new study.

This I agree with. There is so much noise and so many confounding factors affecting the underlying data that you are bound to frequently get conflicting results. Compound this with the fact that studies with the most surprising (read: contrarian) results tend to get the most press, and you get an infinite see-saw in the literature.

> Am I wrong to have suspicions about the possibility that food conglomerates may have funded this study?

This I don't agree with. I think your model of more fasting equals less spending on food is overly simplicitic. The sort of health conscious people who are interested in IF tend to be wealthy and willing to spend on premium health related products. I'd wager that you can make a lot more money selling a few premium, organic, protein bars that you pitch as premium feel-full-for-12-hour-guaranteed products than you can by selling the same old breakfast cereals.

Besides, Occam's razor. Intermittent fasting is not a subject where there is or ever has been an overwhelming consensus in the literature, as opposed to say, climate science. It's not surprising or suspicious in the least to see a contrarian result in this field.

Re: Intermittent fasting associated with increased risk of early death

#35

Am I wrong to have suspicions about the possibility that food conglomerates may have funded this study? I am not a conspiracy theorist, but with the number of dietary science that turned out to be wrong over time, I must be skeptical about every new study.

Based on this comment https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34882990 - you seem to be spot on.

Re: Intermittent fasting associated with increased risk of early death

#36

Maybe because those who are trying to diet are already obese?

I don't think intermittent fasting is 'weight loss dieting' In my limited personal experience, it's not obese people i see doing intermittent fasting - it's more like the keto crowd.

My experience tells me the exact opposite. I lost more than 20kg thanks to IF. I would not have done it, if it would not mean I will lose weight.

Re: Intermittent fasting associated with increased risk of early death

#37
The data was based on behavior between 1999-2014, which means it was behavior that almost certainly was not health motivated since intermittent fasting wasn't popular then. So I think you have to ask: why were these people skipping meals? I think there are a lot of possible explanations and they are all potential confounds.

Like, one obvious reason people skip meals is that they don't have time. If you don't have time to eat, you're probably working long hours and really stressed out. Stress could easily contribute to CVD or otherwise take years off your life.

Another obvious reason to skip meals: you don't have money to buy food. Poverty is well known to lead to worse health outcomes.

Or one more: people skip meals because they have no appetite. What's a big cohort that routinely skips meals because they have no appetite? The elderly.

Maybe they ruled these kinds of things out in the full paper (I've only read the abstract) but so far I'm unimpressed.

Re: Intermittent fasting associated with increased risk of early death

#38

“Among participant with three meals per day, a meal interval of ≤4.5 hours in two adjacent meals was associated with higher all-cause mortality.” So people who ate three meals a day ALSO fared poorly? Am I reading that right?

Only those who had less than 4.5 hours between 2 of their 3 meals.

The lowest hazard rate/lowest all-cause mortality was among those who ate 3 meals a day and had 4.5+ hours between them.

Re: Intermittent fasting associated with increased risk of early death

#39

This is not a study about "intermittent fasting", it is about people who skip meals. I don't know why they skip meals, they don't know why they skip meals, but I would not assume these are all super health conscious people engaging in deliberate intermittent fasting.

Correct! The word "fasting" doesn't appear anywhere in the abstract. And the study also found that shorter meal intervals (i.e., the opposite of fasting) was associated with the same thing. Nothing to do with intermittent fasting.

Re: Intermittent fasting associated with increased risk of early death

#40

Can someone interpret the Hazard Ratios for me? What is a HR of 1.3 or 1.8 actually saying?

Good question: it turns out I didn't know there's a technical difference between "hazard ratio" and "relative risk". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hazard_ratio

But the basic idea is that in the samples under the two different conditions, the ratio of the observed frequencies is 1.3 or 1.8. E.g. it'd be 1.8 if in the fasting sample they saw 3.6% bad outcome, while in the nonfasting sample they saw 2.0% bad outcome.

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