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Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

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Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#51
post #40
post #34

No it isn’t. “Tech” is only slowing down for a very narrow definition of tech. Perhaps we forget that rather recently the world created a vaccine for a novel virus using cutting edge techniques, that genome sequencing costs continue to fall, that genome construction costs continue to fall, that synthetic meats are on the horizon, that infrastructure for electric vehicles is now present in much of the world. Tech inno…

That’s anecdotal though. For an opposite anecdote, airplanes have been pretty much the same since the 70s.

> airplanes have been pretty much the same since the 70s.

you need to back your claims

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#52
post #40
post #34

No it isn’t. “Tech” is only slowing down for a very narrow definition of tech. Perhaps we forget that rather recently the world created a vaccine for a novel virus using cutting edge techniques, that genome sequencing costs continue to fall, that genome construction costs continue to fall, that synthetic meats are on the horizon, that infrastructure for electric vehicles is now present in much of the world. Tech inno…

That’s anecdotal though. For an opposite anecdote, airplanes have been pretty much the same since the 70s.

We've improved fuel efficiency by a factor of 8 since 1970: https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aviation_Efficienc...

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It can be anything really. Better medication design, discovery and modelling of new compounds, disease discovery, better understanding of our environment, etc.

So why aren't we already aware of what these applications are since ML has already been well-funded and hyped for about a decade? Basically what is the inflection point? Obviously this is subjective, but underwhelmed would be a compliment for how I feel about ChatGPT. I've been hearing about these near-term breakthroughs for nearly a decade, even working in the industry. And yet, the real-world progress is nothing co…

I’m not the OP, and I’m a radiographer. Big things are happening with image processing in radiology. ML/Deep Learning or whatever the marketing people call it is what is being done behind the scenes in Siemens ‘Deep Resolve’ for MR systems.

It’s utterly transformed what we do. It adds signal in an initial processing stage in the k-space domain (I’d estimate 25%-30%) then reconstructs the image. Then it doubles the resolution (or does it quadruple?) with double the pixels in the x direction, double in the y.

It does this based on a training dataset of paired images, one high resolution, one low resolution.

Images are now obtained quicker and are higher resolution than ever. Imaging protocols have extra sequences as time constraints are reduced. Patients can stay still for the short scans we are doing. Not ever scan benefited the same way, and some sequences don’t have the tech yet.

The images are fantastic. It’s a larger change than the move to high field magnets (1.5T to 3T) and the hype about it isn’t anywhere near enough.

I’m lucky to be able to compare imaging with and without the technology applied, to be able to mess about with it and find the rough edges (they are unexpected and a little counter intuitive) but I’d be trying to avoid systems without it (or an equivalent) as a system user or a patient. The future is very very bright.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#55
post #50
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But for the most part there is no big thing waiting for the consumer, like the invention of plastics or a smartphone. Household robots and Augmented reality are two big obvious ones.

Household robots wouldn’t really do anything we haven’t seen before or can’t be done today with hired servants or slaves. Robots wouldn’t make much of a difference, it’s just no human required. Augmented reality might still have a chance but who knows. That’s a lot of progress that has to be made, and it won’t be quick. Look how long VR has tried to catch on.

> Household robots wouldn’t really do anything we haven’t seen before or can’t be done today with hired servants or slaves

We're talking about consumer households

> Augmented reality might still have a chance but who knows. That’s a lot of progress that has to be made, and it won’t be quick. Look how long VR has tried to catch on.

We've just seen the start of things editing reality instead of just AR overlays with papers like Dream Mix. Yeah it is a long way off from realtime. Hardware wise we already are close to being there on displays with Varjo XR-3 for passthrough AR.

We have a path to full generative passthrough AR that really modifies the world instead of overlays, and we have the tech to keep making headsets more compact with microdisplays and pancake optics, with good enough brightness and HDR once we move to micro LED.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#57
post #50
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But for the most part there is no big thing waiting for the consumer, like the invention of plastics or a smartphone. Household robots and Augmented reality are two big obvious ones.

Household robots wouldn’t really do anything we haven’t seen before or can’t be done today with hired servants or slaves. Robots wouldn’t make much of a difference, it’s just no human required. Augmented reality might still have a chance but who knows. That’s a lot of progress that has to be made, and it won’t be quick. Look how long VR has tried to catch on.

That's a pretty big change for the majority of the population that can't afford hired servants, or don't want to pay someone for that sort of work.

At the moment, that sort of work requires you to have a decently upper middle class income/lifestyle, and it might not anymore.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#58
post #29

Consumer tech progress is slowing down. There are still advances in tech currently happening, but people’s daily lives have gotten as good as they’re gonna get. Most progress now is just slightly faster processing on devices, better battery life, maybe new materials here and there, medical advances if we’re lucky. But for the most part there is no big thing waiting for the consumer, like the invention of plastics or…

1. Access to space is becoming cheaper.

2. News coming from fusion recently, it could be more than hype.

3. High temp (ie cooled with liquid nitrogen) superconductors at industrial scale

4. mRNA for cancer and vaccines

5. ...

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#60
The golden era of tech in the recent past was due to the MASSIVE PUBLIC INVESTMENTS mostly pushed by the "cold war". That's is. Private led research have a target: company profits. As the capitalism tend to converge to larger and larger dominant entities the substantial innovation needed by competition disappear and all try to fake evolution to keep their dominant position. Nothing more.

We need PUBLIC research for the society, well funded, well SEPARATED by the private sector who can grab ANY idea, but can't influence in lobbying terms the public research, no revolving doors etc.

A small example: these days enough tech guys understand that we damn need integrated desktops, like the classic Xerox PARC ones, LispM ones etc so NOT countless separated apps, like containers on a ship-OS but a single one where anything is a function usable anywhere. Now see the current trend of "apps" and services who try to do more and more things because integration matter and it's not possible with systems designed to be just ships loaded with sealed containers. Did you see the comparison? Not yet? Ok, let's observe then the actual EV and PV system status:

- essentially ALL current EVs now are NMC/LFP 400V batteries.

- essentially ALL current domestic PV storage are NMC/LFP 400V batteries

- NO DAMN SYSTEM exists (except two experimental and only partial products) to integrate them so one can damn charge it's EV from the solar PV with direct surplus from the inverter MPPTs. No useless and wasteful double DC-AC-DC conversion, no fixed power charge and so on.

Why? Because there is no damn integration because those who produce PV stuff only do that, cars are made by someone else, than some car OEM try to offer complete systems (Toyota and limited Tesla) who happen BOTH to be crappy and limited because developed by people who do not have them nor know enough the whole system.

With public research researchers who design a New Deal know well ALL the parts and have no competing interests, so they'll likely end up with a fully integrate systems ONE standard not a handful and so on. The private sector of course is free to change, but having such good research for free they'll not change that much simply because it's too costly for them.

Now I think anyone can understand the comparison...

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