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Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

wsj.com

31–40 of 118 posts

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If anything, I take articles like this in mainstream media as a canary in the coalmine that something big is about to happen.

Can you elaborate what you mean?

If progress slows or plateaus, the inevitable breakthrough will really shine.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#32

Seems like a weirdly timed article given the new S curve is about to start with ML finding numerous real world applications.

What are the real world applications you’re referring to?

* better pictures from your phone's cameras

* auto-captions for youtube videos, you can now search through them. when they started they were quite good and have only improved since.

* ChatGPT we haven't seen widely deployed yet but already now a lot of people use products built on GPT's technology, so an even better version will benefit all of them and widen the circle of users.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#33
post #29

Consumer tech progress is slowing down. There are still advances in tech currently happening, but people’s daily lives have gotten as good as they’re gonna get. Most progress now is just slightly faster processing on devices, better battery life, maybe new materials here and there, medical advances if we’re lucky. But for the most part there is no big thing waiting for the consumer, like the invention of plastics or…

In developed countries yes, but as more products, more content, and processing of data is available, it will make it to less developed countries and cater to other cultures, resulting in similar advances there.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#34
No it isn’t. “Tech” is only slowing down for a very narrow definition of tech. Perhaps we forget that rather recently the world created a vaccine for a novel virus using cutting edge techniques, that genome sequencing costs continue to fall, that genome construction costs continue to fall, that synthetic meats are on the horizon, that infrastructure for electric vehicles is now present in much of the world. Tech innovation continues to flourish, that growth just isn’t focused in computer hardware any more

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#37

Seems like a weirdly timed article given the new S curve is about to start with ML finding numerous real world applications.

What are the real world applications you’re referring to?

Not the gp, but…

- medical diagnosis

- assistant-systems for everything

- noise reduction in industrial settings (via mechanical design)

- basically anything language related

- interpretation of image data

- essentially anything involving a pair of interacting sequences (thanks, transformers)

Contrary to many cynic takes, deep learning, CNNs, transformers are massive. It’s hard to realize the scope of these developments zoomed in to one’s warped perception of time and progress. One needs to zoom out a bit.

We could probably stop advancing the field and reshape most of the “real world” we’re used to, just with things you can import with two lines in python. But those changes come incrementally, and most of the bright minds around are dedicated to advancing our conceptual realm instead of the meatspace-one.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#40
post #34

No it isn’t. “Tech” is only slowing down for a very narrow definition of tech. Perhaps we forget that rather recently the world created a vaccine for a novel virus using cutting edge techniques, that genome sequencing costs continue to fall, that genome construction costs continue to fall, that synthetic meats are on the horizon, that infrastructure for electric vehicles is now present in much of the world. Tech inno…

That’s anecdotal though. For an opposite anecdote, airplanes have been pretty much the same since the 70s.
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