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Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

wsj.com

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Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#41

Post by cma »

xwdv wrote: post #29

Consumer tech progress is slowing down. There are still advances in tech currently happening, but people’s daily lives have gotten as good as they’re gonna get. Most progress now is just slightly faster processing on devices, better battery life, maybe new materials here and there, medical advances if we’re lucky. But for the most part there is no big thing waiting for the consumer, like the invention of plastics or…

> But for the most part there is no big thing waiting for the consumer, like the invention of plastics or a smartphone.

Household robots and Augmented reality are two big obvious ones.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#42

Post by 2OEH8eoCRo0 »

Tech progress is slowing down because all of the entrenched players are protecting their cash cows rather than innovating. I also think that the ability of these companies to capture practically all talented tech employees with inflated salaries has harmed the industry and diminished creativity. The fracturing of these massive conglomerates hopefully brings a cambrian explosion of new tech.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#43

Post by xwdv »

ss48 wrote: post #33
xwdv wrote: post #29

Consumer tech progress is slowing down. There are still advances in tech currently happening, but people’s daily lives have gotten as good as they’re gonna get. Most progress now is just slightly faster processing on devices, better battery life, maybe new materials here and there, medical advances if we’re lucky. But for the most part there is no big thing waiting for the consumer, like the invention of plastics or…

In developed countries yes, but as more products, more content, and processing of data is available, it will make it to less developed countries and cater to other cultures, resulting in similar advances there.

That’s just moving goalposts. Developed countries represent the current standard of tech, everything else is just playing catch up, it’s not “progress”.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#44

Post by doc_multimedia »

xwdv wrote: post #29

Consumer tech progress is slowing down. There are still advances in tech currently happening, but people’s daily lives have gotten as good as they’re gonna get. Most progress now is just slightly faster processing on devices, better battery life, maybe new materials here and there, medical advances if we’re lucky. But for the most part there is no big thing waiting for the consumer, like the invention of plastics or…

I don't think people's daily lives are "as good as they’re gonna get" - there are other advances in the horizon (I think AI is gonna be the big one), and it's impossible to predict the potential impact they'll have on people's lives.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#45

Post by speedgoose »

jszymborski wrote: post #23
sporkland wrote: post #2

Seems like a weirdly timed article given the new S curve is about to start with ML finding numerous real world applications.

Between this and the "Save money by skipping breakfast" piece, the WSJ is quickly affirming all my suspicions that it's editorial section can be safely ignored.

Well, it’s also owned by Rupert Murdoch.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#46

Post by mhandley »

mach1ne wrote: post #40
peterlk wrote: post #34

No it isn’t. “Tech” is only slowing down for a very narrow definition of tech. Perhaps we forget that rather recently the world created a vaccine for a novel virus using cutting edge techniques, that genome sequencing costs continue to fall, that genome construction costs continue to fall, that synthetic meats are on the horizon, that infrastructure for electric vehicles is now present in much of the world. Tech inno…

That’s anecdotal though. For an opposite anecdote, airplanes have been pretty much the same since the 70s.

They may look the same, but they've changed a lot when it comes to safety: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_safety#/media/File:Fa...

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#47

Post by hef19898 »

mach1ne wrote: post #40
peterlk wrote: post #34

No it isn’t. “Tech” is only slowing down for a very narrow definition of tech. Perhaps we forget that rather recently the world created a vaccine for a novel virus using cutting edge techniques, that genome sequencing costs continue to fall, that genome construction costs continue to fall, that synthetic meats are on the horizon, that infrastructure for electric vehicles is now present in much of the world. Tech inno…

That’s anecdotal though. For an opposite anecdote, airplanes have been pretty much the same since the 70s.

Except they aren't. Not when it cmes to noise, fuel consumption or safety. Or weight, or range, or reliability.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#48

Post by kvathupo »

endisneigh wrote: post #12
sporkland wrote: post #2

Seems like a weirdly timed article given the new S curve is about to start with ML finding numerous real world applications.

What are the real world applications you’re referring to?

I think this is a critical question. Most businesses, imo, would not benefit from the added uninterpretablity and computational overhead from using deep learning. Of those industries modeling stochastic or evolving processes, however, the impact is monumental.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#49

Post by samtho »

mach1ne wrote: post #40
peterlk wrote: post #34

No it isn’t. “Tech” is only slowing down for a very narrow definition of tech. Perhaps we forget that rather recently the world created a vaccine for a novel virus using cutting edge techniques, that genome sequencing costs continue to fall, that genome construction costs continue to fall, that synthetic meats are on the horizon, that infrastructure for electric vehicles is now present in much of the world. Tech inno…

That’s anecdotal though. For an opposite anecdote, airplanes have been pretty much the same since the 70s.

Airplanes are a relatively poor anecdote. They have advanced in small but steady changes over time. The prevalence of the single aisle, 6 abreast seating of the 737 and A320 came about because airlines could reliably fill short to medium haul flight and were cost effective in other ways. We have more efficient engines, systems have gotten safer, etc. There is a lot of work behind the scenes with aircraft.

Re: Tech Progress Is Slowing Down

#50

Post by xwdv »

cma wrote: post #41
xwdv wrote: post #29

Consumer tech progress is slowing down. There are still advances in tech currently happening, but people’s daily lives have gotten as good as they’re gonna get. Most progress now is just slightly faster processing on devices, better battery life, maybe new materials here and there, medical advances if we’re lucky. But for the most part there is no big thing waiting for the consumer, like the invention of plastics or…

> But for the most part there is no big thing waiting for the consumer, like the invention of plastics or a smartphone. Household robots and Augmented reality are two big obvious ones.

Household robots wouldn’t really do anything we haven’t seen before or can’t be done today with hired servants or slaves. Robots wouldn’t make much of a difference, it’s just no human required.

Augmented reality might still have a chance but who knows. That’s a lot of progress that has to be made, and it won’t be quick. Look how long VR has tried to catch on.

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