Live data from Hacker News

United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

reuters.com

101–110 of 161 posts

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#101
post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

1. Russia is incentivized to use tactical nukes to destroy ukrainian infrastructure like bridges which are very hard to destroy with other means. 2. US warned that there will be catastrophic consequences if Russia used nuclear weapons. It's not clear what exactly do they mean. But it would be logical to suppose that this would indicate full scale NATO invasion. 3. In this case Russia military doctrine allows to use s…

I naively hope that somewhere high up in the chain of command between Putin deciding to order a nuclear strike and human hands actuating physical controls, there's at least one person with the good judgment and cool head of Stanislav Petrov[1], and the superhuman willingness to sacrifice themselves for a chance at saving untold millions of lives.

Basically, I'm hoping for violent mutiny of nuclear forces in the event of a first-strike order. It feels very strange to wish that people on the other side of the world who I will never meet will just give up their lives/futures and those of their families and kill if necessary to prevent the first domino from falling.

[1] In 1983, Stanislav Petrov's early warning system showed a total of five inbound US nuclear missiles. He correctly assessed these to be false alarms, and disobeyed standing orders to trigger an immediate and compulsory nuclear counter-attack. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alar...

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#103
post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

1. Russia is incentivized to use tactical nukes to destroy ukrainian infrastructure like bridges which are very hard to destroy with other means. 2. US warned that there will be catastrophic consequences if Russia used nuclear weapons. It's not clear what exactly do they mean. But it would be logical to suppose that this would indicate full scale NATO invasion. 3. In this case Russia military doctrine allows to use s…

2. Would probably be "just" sinking black sea fleet with a non-nuclear bombardment or equal. The consequence needs to be a loss that has political and military significance but does not need to more than necessary.

3.& 4. Would mean Russia's self annihilation and they won't go there.

It's no joke that nuclear powers are saber rattling ofc.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not wrong to be concerned, just likely off on the probabilities by orders of magnitude. 1. Tactical nukes aren't a likely step for Russia if Ukraine takes back their territory - even if they go for Crimea. Russia knows that any use of nuclear weapons is crossing a line, and that the regime is done if they do so. 2. There isn't a reason for spying on these facilities if the goal is to analyze the US' ability to…

The coast near Moscow?

Near is a relative term with ballistic missiles.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#105
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine has no chance of outright battlefield victory, however sufficient military aid can keep them in the fight and produce a grinding stalemate like in WW1. The hope is that this war of attrition will eventually lead to regime change in Russia and perhaps a further fragmentation of the country to continue the process started in 1991. Even if Russia holds together politically and continues to occupy parts of Ukrain…

IMO the only regime change likely in Russia will not make you happy. There're some very pro-military leaders arise recently. Putin does not allow for war to go full-scale. Those leaders will. Fragmentation is possible but I don't believe it, at least for now. Russia loses soldiers but they obtain much more soldiers with perfect battle training, they acquire priceless experience as to which weapons are effective and s…

I saw a video recently where a column of Russian tanks was advancing along a road when the lead vehicle was hit by artillery. The others proceeded to ... just stop and wait until they were also hit.

Now I'm no expert in mechanized warfare but I think when you're caught by artillery fire on an open road with no cover you're not supposed to sit there and wait to get hit. Advance past the kill zone, retreat, or disperse but don't stop and wait for orders. Apparently this is the result of "perfect battle training" a year into the war.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#106
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Am I wrong to be concerned? I don't think so. Normalcy bias is strong in the public right now and I don't blame people for wanting simple explanations for the recent events. Regarding the balloons my unpopular opinion is that they may have received intel that the spy balloons are to condition the US into complacency and then replace the payload with something else using a later set of balloons. This would never make…

Let's say Russia does decide to use nukes. What would they target? Their main objective in the war is to seize control of Ukrainian energy and agricultural resources; they don't want to turn it into an irradiated wasteland. Using a nuke against Ukrainian military forces would be a waste since they are now dispersed and dug in. Many of those forces are close to Russian forces so a nuclear strike would endanger their o…

Their main objective in the war is to seize control of Ukrainian energy and agricultural resources

I do not believe that is their primary objective. Should any resources survive their onslaught they are just bonus material. They have already destroyed most of the factories train tracks and a good deal of the power generation. Russia have no ability currently to replace these things or to rebuild Ukraine which would be necessary in order to make use of the lands resources.

What would they target?

The remaining power, hospitals, the remaining agricultural factories to starve everyone. That alone would drive out most of the remaining people. I believe the primary objective is to secure Russia. That requires conquering all neighboring former Soviet countries and Ukraine is just in the way and has a nice bonus water port. Should they succeed in taking Ukraine this spring then I would expect Poland and/or Finland to be attacked at some point later on.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#107
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. Tactical nukes aren't a likely step for Russia if Ukraine takes back their territory - even if they go for Crimea. Russia knows that any use of nuclear weapons is crossing a line, and that the regime is done if they do so. Is Putin not done politically if RU is defeated in UA, and Crimea is liberated / annexed? > 2. There isn't a reason for spying on these facilities if the goal is to analyze the US' ability to…

>Is Putin not done politically if RU is defeated in UA, and Crimea is liberated / annexed? Nicholas II wasn't done after Russo-Japanese war loss, Alexander II wasn't done after Crimean War, Lenin wasn't done after Polish-Soviet war, Yeltsin wasn't done after First Chechen War... why would Putin be done? History of russia is full of counterexamples and them presenting as "we'll win or we'll nuke whole world" is a prop…

> Alexander II wasn't done after Crimean War

That war started in 1853, Alexander II's reign began in 1855, obviously he wasn't done since this wasn't even a war he had started...

People need to temper their hot takes on history.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#108
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

RU is gaining initiative since January. Most useful thing that UA got from NATO for now is military intelligence that has scale which maybe only China can match. This is available for UA since beginning. We still do not know how effective new weapons are going to be. Maybe that is why the volume of western tanks is so low. I don't think there will be Nukes.

The volume of Western tanks is low because the West has been hesitant to send any modern weaponry to Ukraine. What they’ve basically sent so far, with which Ukraine has demolished the Russian weaponry, is old, almost decommissioned weapons they weren’t using anyways.

We have seen some old equipment, but we have also seen HIMARS, Starstreak, NASAMS, Patriot, HARM, M777 (with Excalibur smart rounds), several types of drones, and bunch more stuff that is pretty much state of the art. Now there's 300 Bradleys and bunch of tanks on the way.

Yes, no F-35, which would be fun to watch, but I understand NATO has to keep some aces up its sleeves.

ETA: there were also some ... mysterious happenings. Like we still don't know exactly what blew up the airbase on Crimea. We don't know exactly what blew up the bridge. We don't know exactly what is hitting airbases many hundreds of kilometers behind the borders - some of them further from Ukraine than Moscow.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It seems the US and allies no longer just wants UA to hold their own against RU, but actually win the war There is no "hold their own". This would be a state of perpetual warfare. The only way to end the war is to allow Russia to claim Ukraine or push Russia out of Ukraine. Personally I would rather the Russian border to be as far east as possible.

Theoretically, the US might hope to turn Ukraine into Russia's Iraq - never any decisive loss, just gradually bleeding soldiers and equipment for 20 years for little benefit, until they get bored and go home. A conspiracy-minded person who thought America blew up the Nordstream pipelines to reduce Europe's dependence on Russian gas might see a similar benefit to prolonging the conflict.

The US itself is in the state of being always a few years away from taken over by a crowd very sympathetic to the Putin's cause and Putin personally. Prolonging this conflict is therefore also quite risky to the current establishment or whatever you want to call the adherents of the post-WW2 world order.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#110
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 1. Tactical nukes aren't a likely step for Russia if Ukraine takes back their territory - even if they go for Crimea. Russia knows that any use of nuclear weapons is crossing a line, and that the regime is done if they do so. Is Putin not done politically if RU is defeated in UA, and Crimea is liberated / annexed? > 2. There isn't a reason for spying on these facilities if the goal is to analyze the US' ability to…

It’s easier for Putin to change the narrative in Russia than to try and fend off every western power (and many Russians as well) trying to personally assassinate him. Let’s not forget that until a few months ago it was literally illegal to even call this war a war in Russia. But today, it’s not just a war, it’s a defensive ear, if you go by Russian state media (a defensive war that is somehow being fought entirely on…

>war that is somehow being fought entirely on another country’s territory

Technically not true.

They've proclaimed most of these battlefield territories their own, so that is now a technically correct statement.

Post reply on HN