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United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

reuters.com

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Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#31

Post by timeon »

kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

RU is gaining initiative since January. Most useful thing that UA got from NATO for now is military intelligence that has scale which maybe only China can match. This is available for UA since beginning. We still do not know how effective new weapons are going to be. Maybe that is why the volume of western tanks is so low. I don't think there will be Nukes.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#32

Post by KptMarchewa »

kypro wrote: post #28
digdugdirk wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not wrong to be concerned, just likely off on the probabilities by orders of magnitude. 1. Tactical nukes aren't a likely step for Russia if Ukraine takes back their territory - even if they go for Crimea. Russia knows that any use of nuclear weapons is crossing a line, and that the regime is done if they do so. 2. There isn't a reason for spying on these facilities if the goal is to analyze the US' ability to…

> 1. Tactical nukes aren't a likely step for Russia if Ukraine takes back their territory - even if they go for Crimea. Russia knows that any use of nuclear weapons is crossing a line, and that the regime is done if they do so. Is Putin not done politically if RU is defeated in UA, and Crimea is liberated / annexed? > 2. There isn't a reason for spying on these facilities if the goal is to analyze the US' ability to…

>Is Putin not done politically if RU is defeated in UA, and Crimea is liberated / annexed?

Nicholas II wasn't done after Russo-Japanese war loss, Alexander II wasn't done after Crimean War, Lenin wasn't done after Polish-Soviet war, Yeltsin wasn't done after First Chechen War... why would Putin be done? History of russia is full of counterexamples and them presenting as "we'll win or we'll nuke whole world" is a propaganda tactics and bluff.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#33

Post by KptMarchewa »

sobkas wrote: post #22
matthewdgreen wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia isn’t going to go nuclear unless Ukrainian forces start heading towards Moscow. They would sure like you to think that they would, though.

> Russia isn’t going to go nuclear unless Ukrainian forces start heading towards Moscow. They would sure like you to think that they would, though. No, Russia isn't going nuclear unless Ukraine will move into Russian territory. While Putin annexed parts of Ukraine to be able to use draft soldiers there, it still part of Russian territory in his mind and minds of many Russians (starting with generals and oligarchs end…

It's not "part of his mind" it's a propaganda tactic ment for you to think this way.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#34

Post by mattgperry »

kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

> It seems the US and allies no longer just wants UA to hold their own against RU, but actually win the war

There is no "hold their own". This would be a state of perpetual warfare. The only way to end the war is to allow Russia to claim Ukraine or push Russia out of Ukraine. Personally I would rather the Russian border to be as far east as possible.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#36

Post by KptMarchewa »

ihatepython wrote: post #18
kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

[flagged]

There is no "WW3" if one side is just russia.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#37

Post by dia80 »

sobkas wrote: post #22
matthewdgreen wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia isn’t going to go nuclear unless Ukrainian forces start heading towards Moscow. They would sure like you to think that they would, though.

> Russia isn’t going to go nuclear unless Ukrainian forces start heading towards Moscow. They would sure like you to think that they would, though. No, Russia isn't going nuclear unless Ukraine will move into Russian territory. While Putin annexed parts of Ukraine to be able to use draft soldiers there, it still part of Russian territory in his mind and minds of many Russians (starting with generals and oligarchs end…

Not so, Kherson was annexed and is now back in Ukrainian hands. You can conclude from this that RU accepts their annexations are BS.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#38

Post by drewcoo »

kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

> hostile spy drones

In the form of naked eye visible . . . balloons.

Because "hostile spy drones" is more plausible than . . . invasion from another planet?

19th century science fiction meets Phillip K Dick.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#39

Post by kypro »

consumer451 wrote: post #17
kypro wrote: post #8

Something that's been concerning me about all these UFOs being shot down is that perhaps it could be best explained by the start of something else building up... Realistically these UFO's aren't alien crafts but hostile spy drones. Perhaps the reason we haven't heard about these drones before could be that the US has never felt the need to act (the spying poses no real imminent threat), or maybe the hostile state sen…

> Most experts agree the conflict in UA will pick up again in the spring. And in the event of a potential UA victory the use of tactical nuclear weapons from RU seem likely. This is a very significant claim. Could you please provide some citations to support it?

It's "mud season", a period between winter and spring where it's hard to travel off-road because vehicles are prone to getting stuck in the mud.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/28/world/europe/ukraine-russ....

My understanding is that later in the Spring conditions begin to improve. The tanks the US and allies have been sending recently are likely in preparation for a remobilisation of Russias forces once the "mud season" is over.

Re: United States tells citizens: Leave Russia immediately

#40

Post by csydas »

haswell wrote: post #25
docdeek wrote: post #6

Is this a big deal because it is the US? FWIW the Australian government has had this sort of warning out for their citizens in Russia for more than a month (at least since 11 January): "If you're in Russia, leave immediately using the limited commercial options available or private means if it's safe to do so. Review your personal security plans and carefully consider the safest means and route to depart.” [1] [1]: h…

FTA, this is not the first time the US has warned citizens about this either, but renewing this warning in the wake of recent events does seem interesting.

I lived in Russia for 6 years prior to the invasion of Ukraine (2022 edition), and I can confirm that the US has frequently warned very heavily for basically all actions in Russia, even during peace times (before the first invasion of Ukraine even). I think even in 2015 when I went the first time, Russia was still on the 2nd level of warning despite overall decent relationships between the two countries at the time.

These warnings have been persistent for the last 8 years and in my discussions with the US consulate when I was there, it's less about indicating anything in specific and more about the US protecting its own interests and being as clear as possible that they cannot assist on a lot of things right now due to very limited diplomatic presence. The message that I was told at the consulate during the first Ukraine invasion was "we're very limited on staff and influence; we cannot make you leave, but you need to understand that if you get in legal trouble, we likely cannot help you." (this was a bit after the Saint Petersburg US embassy was closed)

While I don't doubt there is some concern about persons being taken for negotiation purposes, I think the major concern is just that the US is not in a position to assist for many foreign citizen services as the diplomatic tensions are far too high right now. Unless you already have good connections in Russia, at best you're stuck in a bad spot without help from the consulate, and at worst there is a chance you become a means of bargaining (though this has always been the case).

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