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Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

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Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#251
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They are probably one of the best run companies in the world. I would disagree with this. Although their risk is spread much better than it was in the early 00s, a huge amount of their recurring revenue right now teeters on the brink of destruction in the form of their 30% app store cut and the walled-garden nature of their app store. All it would take is a morally principled, non-lobbied regulator to step in and r…

> regulate that down to something reasonable like 5% or 3% How is 5% "reasonable?" Who determines that? That's not something up for a vote -- that's up to the market. Let's say you have an iOS app. If you sell it for $5 on the App Store, you keep $3.5. And you sell 100,000. App Store nets you $350k. And let's say you sold the app direct to users and did everything yourself: $5 sales price, you keep $5 however, you al…

> If you sell it for $5 on the App Store, you keep $3.5.

Try $0. Look at the App Store charts. The 200 top grossing apps are ironically all "Free": https://appfigures.com/top-apps/ios-app-store/united-states/...

This is the real problem, the crApp Store race to the bottom. Apple's cut was never really the problem. The cut is obscene, but only because the prices are already obscenely low. I'd be happy to give Apple 50% if I could sell my software for higher prices.

> And you sell 100,000.

Good luck with that.

> You also have to set up a server to serve the downloads and pay hosting, storage, and bandwidth.

Cheap.

> As well as shipping updates to all of your customers. As well as ensuring updates are compatible for any iOS version your customers might be using. There's going to be some level of customer support required.

You have to do these things anyway.

> Finally, how are people going to discover your app? You aren't on any app stores, so you have to advertise. You'll need to market. And -- convince people that you aren't going to infect their device with malware.

You have to do all of this stuff regardless of whether you're in the App Store. As an App Store developer myself, I can tell you that Apple absolutely does not do these things for you.

Notice how many Mac developers, given the choice, choose to distribute themselves rather than via the Mac App Store. They don't see the App Store as a win like you do.

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> looked to be permanent I don't believe that any CEO/CFO with half a brain actually thought this. Sure, things wouldn't return to pre-pandemic levels necessarily, but the COVID-induced state was not going to permanently change human behavior. > ROI on devs was good compared to low inflation and low interest rates. Then both of those things changed this is more the reason; the "mea culpa, how could we have known" exc…

For CEOs that thought this would be permanent see Shopify and Amazon. Both have said this publicly and Amazon spent billions on transportation infra. They are not stupid.

Amazon is a different case altogether (see my other post about them) as they deal in physical goods; that transportation infrastructure allows them to capture greater market share even if online sales drop.

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>...more on short-term gains instead of long-term quality... Considering that Tim has been CEO for 11 1/2 years now, and things are still going incredibly well for Apple...it seems pretty hard to argue that he is too focused on the short term. (FWIW, I mostly agree about their software quality.)

Speaking of software quality, anyone notice in Apple Music how the categories all start with Apple? Apple Dance music, Apple Country, Apple Pop... like are they trying to make it intentionally difficult for me to use my eyes to find music? I know that I'm using Apple Music... why does every category need to remind me of that while simultaneously impeding my ability to locate things alphabetically? Of course, when I u…

Soon in supermarkets near you: the Apple Apple. Beautiful, healthy, tasty; no buttons!

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been at my company for 10 years. It went: competent -> high performer -> competent (promotion) -> high performer -> competent -> low performer

Did you go from high performer to low performer at the same role? what has changed?

Things that changed: subdivisions/teams, tech stacks, managers, areas of the business, enterprise procedures/processes. Basically everything. They even outsourced my job, then laid off my entire old department to ship that entire business unit to another contract company.

Then at home, kids and multiple family health issues. I guess my age plays a role too.

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is only true if you can’t see the future that’s right in front of your eyes. It really isn't in front of my eyes, and won't be for a long time. > No idea why it's here. And yes you are restricted by the laws of physics and human biology. > We also already have Quest 2 as a pretty good VR device that’s shipped VR is a) distinctly different from AR, b) requires bulky headsets, and c) borderline unusable for any…

> yes you are restricted by the laws of physics and human biology Yeah, you didn’t cite any laws that restrict this future. You’re wrong. Let’s also not be disingenuous. those “fantasy interfaces” are working prototypes and not just movie CGI. There are also real world products like NReal. You’re not familiar enough with the subject despite being confidently wrong > VR is a) distinctly different from AR, b) requires…

> Yeah, you didn’t cite any laws that restrict this future. You’re wrong.

I'm not wrong. I just don't call wishful thinking "the future", "reality" etc.

> Let’s also not be disingenuous. those “fantasy interfaces” are working prototypes and not just movie CGI

Prototypes are not "actual usable interfaces that are used by real humans for any extended periods of time". Note how his own company uses none of these interfaces.

> There are also real world products like NReal

Ah yes. A pair of galsses with 46 degree field of view that you need to connect with a cable to the actual device where all the processing and control happens.

> what Quest headsets and the new Apple headset will support

Ah yes. The new Apple headset that you know literally nothing about will one hundred percent will have this... Even though it's rumoured not to be VR device

> Bulky headsets are the past and present. That isn’t the future, or even the near future

Oh? We've solved the question of batteries? Of compact CPUs and GPUs capable of processing this? Etc. And all this is coming in near future?

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#257
post #33

> Apple, meanwhile, was more cautious. Its headcount increased just 20% from 2020 to 2022 At Apples size this is still pretty huge. At least, I thought it was until I saw that Amazon, Meta and Salesforce basically DOUBLED in 2 years. If this data is correct isnt that insane? How can you effectively double orgs of this size over a 2 year period? Its not like a startup with 50 people or something. I guess I was out of…

I can't speak to Meta, but Saleforce and Amazon probably needed to hire during the pandemic to keep on with demand.

Amazon saw a massive spike in their ecommerce business due to lockdowns so they had to hire to ensure they had the labour to deal with all the extra orders and deliveries. And even with this extra hiring I remember my deliveries being delayed often in 2020.

Saleforce is a weird software company because my understanding is a lot of their staff are there to help clients with integrations, manage accounts and to upsell. Again, assuming Salesforce saw a spike in demand during the pandemic they probably needed more employees because of the nature of their business.

My guess is that Apple also had to ramp up manufacturing significantly during the pandemic to meet demand, but obviously they don't employee people directly to do their manufacturing which probably gave them more flexibility when it came to meeting pandemic demand without increasing head count.

For the most part I don't understand why people act like tech companies were hiring recklessly during the pandemic. Are people forgetting how much demand was pulled forward by stimulus and lockdowns? These companies were forced to hire or lose market share. That's really the only two options they had.

Personally I'd be blaming politicians and the Fed for creating an impossible economic environment to operate in. If you were a company in 2020 your demand was either skyrocketing from lockdowns or at zero because you were forced to close your business. There was no in-between. Tech employees as initial beneficiaries of lockdowns are only now seeing the impact of job losses, but these were happening on mass elsewhere in the economy while lockdowns were in place.

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At almost every place I've ever worked, there were about 10-20% of employees who were unproductive. Sometimes it's because they were bad hires, or they were just working on projects that added no value. I was at a series B startup that did 15% layoffs during the first pandemic wave. The result: we moved faster, code quality went up, morale increased over time. Some layoffs are driven by necessity, and some are opport…

This is assuming that layoffs affect the correct group of people, in which case the obvious question is why couldn't those people be informed earlier and been given a choice to find a different position or to improve their performance? At Google specifically, many high performers were laid off without explanation. When entire programs were cut, many general-purpose programmers were lost simply due to being in the wro…

It's not "don't trust out performance evaluations". The point of perf evals is rarely to fire people, it's primary use is to manage expectations of promotion.

> This is assuming that layoffs affect the correct group of people

Layoffs often don't target the right group of people when it comes to perf. There's error in human judgement abound. But it's 100% accurate when it comes to which business units are bringing in revenue, or costing a lot.

> why couldn't those people be informed earlier and been given a choice to find a different position or to improve their performance

Human attention is a scarce resource. Executives will tolerate inefficiency during up markets because it's more valuable to try to capture growth vs become efficient. When there's no growth to be had, then they turn their attention towards cutting costs.

> it seems more likely that layoffs in these cases are less about cutting low performers and more about getting rid of people the company is mismanaging, or people that the company is overpaying

The larger a company gets, the more these are effectively the same thing. Money in, value out. Too much money, too little value, you're just changing two sides of a ratio.

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#259
post #33

> Apple, meanwhile, was more cautious. Its headcount increased just 20% from 2020 to 2022 At Apples size this is still pretty huge. At least, I thought it was until I saw that Amazon, Meta and Salesforce basically DOUBLED in 2 years. If this data is correct isnt that insane? How can you effectively double orgs of this size over a 2 year period? Its not like a startup with 50 people or something. I guess I was out of…

It was a symptom of the bubble economy, particularly in e-commerce and online services, that materialized during the pandemic and was egged on by a series of mistakes made by the Fed.

Demand looked like it was growing massively with no end in sight, valuations were insane, and money was easy to get.

A lot of companies didn't stop to think that maybe it was all just a bubble. So they hired to avoid missing out.

Basic things like running a sustainable business with a sane balance sheet were not scrutinized by investors. Now they are, and in the layoff emails to employees we see CEOs talking about how that is important, as if they suddenly realized it for the first time.

To be fair, some of those companies probably did make a lot more money than they would have if they hadn't taken advantage of the situation -- and they probably would have been punished by their shareholders if they didn't.

Re: Apple avoids job cuts because it didn’t overhire like Google and Amazon

#260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been at my company for 10 years. It went: competent -> high performer -> competent (promotion) -> high performer -> competent -> low performer

This is known as the Peter Principle. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_principle

I mean, not quite. My performance at the same level went from high performer to low performer. So I was doing the role very well for a while, even getting good reviews for filling the role above mine (intermediate dev filling tech lead role). Performance gradually atrophied following my disenchantment and mistreatment.
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