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Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

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Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#221
post #74

ChatGPT is still a novelty. People will kick tires etc but utility is just not there yet.

Similar statements have been made about most dominant technology when it was in its infancy. You are not wrong, but it can quickly go from novelty to necessity once folks start to rely on it.

Do you see yourself relying on it? Not when you know it’s KNOWN to give wrong answers.

It’s also worth mentioning that Google PageRank was not the first search engine. No, it was good 4-5 years after the first usable search engine came to market. I think the same will be true for AI chat.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#222

It's way too premature to say that ChatGPT will overtake Google, not to mention Google still derives about half of its income from Youtube and 3rd party publisher ads. Every few years the media runs with some story about how Bing, Yahoo or whatever will overtake Google. Never even comes close.

> Google still derives about half of its income from Youtube and 3rd party publisher ads

Their Q4 2022 revenue was $76B [0]. YouTube + 3p ads were a combined $16.5B. That's about 20%, not about half.

[0] https://abc.xyz/investor/static/pdf/2022Q4_alphabet_earnings...

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#223

It's been a while since they stopped innovating. Although Google, Maps, Youtube are of daily use they are monetized exclusively by advertising which is annoying and hated by many. It has been many years since Google has launched an innovative new product. I don't think ChatGPT will gain daily traction after this hype. Anyway we could say that MSFT and AMZN have demostrated more power to innovate with different busine…

If search gets usurped, or even a marginal but meaningful reduction in usage due to competition from AIs, then its not surprising at all that Google’s near term prospects could be worse than Coke. Even Google winning the AI wars leaves them worse off as the operating profit potential of querying an AI vs their search index has to be far lower. As to usage, once you start to integrate ChatGPT into your workflows it ca…

If Google ends up winning in the AI war, search and ads will be significantly cannibalized, but it will have tremendous opportunities outside of search, many of them in areas that don't even exist yet.

In some ways, it might even be good. It's suffering from a kind of advertising resource curse nowadays, and being forced and able to diversify its economy would be best in the long term.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#224

The gaming of SEO has been quietly destroying the utility of search writ large as a mechanism for quite a while. Over the last year, its become palpable. Google has such utility in this regard that in some cases, a hallucinating lie-machine offers better answer than an index of what information is available on the internet. This issue with with Googles failure to respond to the deluge of SEO driven content in their s…

Isn't Google data driven?

Are you asserting that they look at their copious data and decide to make search worse because it makes them more money? Rather than figuring out a way to make search better and then further optimize their advertising income with this better product? And it seems like they've been pretty damn clever about monetizing quality over the years. It's possible that they have chosen to make search worse for profit, wouldn't be the first time a business did something like that but they have a pretty deep institutional fear of search losing relevance and it's hard to see them doing that.

As a long time user and user of the other guys before google, I think Google is shockingly good at finding specific answers to specific questions that I have about all sorts of things, often with fairly deep technical context. Now what is definitely lacking is in the good old days I'd enter some search terms, get pages of results and then some time later I'd find myself enjoyably down some rabbit hole that is tangential to my search needs on some part of the internet that I never even knew existed before. Maybe I'm too busy with work, but I used to spend a lot more time doing internet "research" to get some specific answers, that time seems to be much more efficient; I do sort of feel like I'm corralled to smaller portion of the internet than I used to be. I don't feel like I can't find the information but I have had a hard time re-finding some specific web page I found once way back.

Where does ChatGPT and Bard fit in this? I've played with ChatGPT and it's fun, it's neat, I haven't been able to get it to some how synthesize some wisdom though. It's not hard to see it just mimicking things. That might be valuable. That might be fun. Using it to seed search might be an enjoyable thing. Maybe it can help extract context from people to find out the actual question they are asking to find the actual answer they seek. Now I can absolutely see ChatGPT/Bard assisting in me wasting time going down rabbit holes, I'm not sure it'll be as enjoyable or as magical as how it used to be.

Are there some examples of shitty google search you can bring up? I just entered "Roth contribution income limit" and without even going to another website, I got what looks like a legit answer to my question. Now I'll click though a few to make sure it's accurate and authentic; at a glance, it's coming from Schwab and it looks like a legit answer to my question. Bing comes up with the same answer, it's presented in a nice table but it's lower on the page and below a sizable paid ad from Merrill Lynch (edge?)

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of the HN crowd remember when Google came into existence and how wonderful it was. If it existed on the internet, Google would find it for you and it was usually the top resault. It was amazing. Today, it's a shadow of its former self. You regularly have to search, wade through the ads that are written like informative articles, adjust your query slightly and repeat the process. It's rubbish.

What these people are remembering is when the web was small and dorks-only. Now it is huge and full of normies of all kinds, including every shade of commercialism and fraud.

Yes, but other search engines existed before Google. They weren't very useful or pleasant to use.

Google solved a big problem and then went to sleep while counting their money. They even started to be evil.

Now the original problem has evolved but Google hasn't managed to keep up.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#226
post #38

It's been a while since they stopped innovating. Although Google, Maps, Youtube are of daily use they are monetized exclusively by advertising which is annoying and hated by many. It has been many years since Google has launched an innovative new product. I don't think ChatGPT will gain daily traction after this hype. Anyway we could say that MSFT and AMZN have demostrated more power to innovate with different busine…

They didn’t exactly stop innovating: ChatGPT itself is using tremendous amounts of innovation that was done and published by Google. What they stopped is beating their competition to launching compelling products based on the innovation they do.

Innovation is the practical implementation of new inventions to deliver value. Google invented but does not seem to have innovated.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see this sort of comment a lot, and I honestly don't know what it's talking about. What are people expecting out of Google that it's not delivering? It can only index stuff that's on the Web. Stuff on the Web is, contrary to what is popularly asserted, only a tiny fraction of all human knowledge. I think people are forgetting how bad search was before Google. Google drove Web directories to extinction. Remember Yah…

Just search for "chocolate chip cookie recipe" and show me a single result that isn't a complete trash website. A significant number are nothing more than ad farms that just load infinite ads in IFRAMEs and similar stuff like that.

It's buried near the bottom of the page, but here's your huckleberry: https://www.seriouseats.com/the-food-lab-best-chocolate-chip...

Lots of trash out there but Serious Eats is good quality.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#228
The article starts, "Nestled in the hills of Mountain View", which is worrisome, because as anyone with even a passing familiarity with Silicon Valley geography knows, Mountain View is mostly flat. And Google's Mountain View offices are located on reclaimed baylands, which are especially flat.

I wonder if the article authors were thinking of Xerox PARC's offices in Palo Alto's hills? Or the road named "Sand Hill Road" that used to have some venture capitalist offices? Other than those offices I can't think of any significant hill-based offices in Silicon Valley.

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#229
post #199

Sorry to break it to you folks but if you hated your data being with Google, you are in for a surprise on how atrociously bad Microsoft is at privacy and security. Multiple close friends who have worked at Microsoft tell me that search history data - who is searching what, is basically sitting in systems with ACLs so bad that 20-30K employees have access through transitive membership of groups. To access a customer's…

It's not much about Microsoft. At least it improved human life in serious ways (Typescript, VSCode,...). What did Google bring to my life ? Nothing except for spam stuffs from Ad, Email,... You're responsible for your data, not Google, not Microsoft.

I can't imagine thinking typescript improved human life more than Google Search

Re: Is Google’s 20-year search dominance about to end?

#230

I don't get the HN hate of Google as a search tool. Yes, SEO has made searching more difficult, but Google is still by far the best search engine provided that your searches are focused and you use search tools (e.g., excluding terms, focusing on certain sites, etc.). I've tried other search engines (e.g., DDG, Bing) and they just aren't as good as Google.

Remember when image search didn’t give up after ~100 images? Google has definitely gotten worse, and it’s obviously margins-motivated.
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