Earlier quoted context omitted.
Soy on soy (on soy, on soy...). Disease soon sets in if not regularly rotated.
But why did they try it
Trying to increase short-term profitability, no doubt. But I don't know for certain.
The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
211–220 of 271 posts
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#212Few things have a single cause, but I think it's not outlandish to hypothesize that potential pending famines could be driven by a fertilizer shortage, driven by Russia's invasion and global economic issues, driven by the pandemic. Maybe this is obvious to those smarter than I, but I'm beginning to have a sinking sense that direct deaths by SARS-COV2 will be a shockingly small minority of total deaths caused by the p…
What does COVID have to do with this? The fertilizer shortage is caused by the war in Ukraine. This war will cause more deaths indirectly than it does directly, just like almost all large wars.
> The fertilizer shortage is caused by the war in Ukraine.
The war certainly exacerbated the issue, but there were already fertilizer supply issues before. I remember well purchasing my 2022 crop year fertilizer in December 2021, which is earlier than I normally get around to it, but was prompted to because the prices had already risen substantially by that time and were predicted to go even higher (which they did). War in Ukraine didn't break out for at least another month after that. Not so much COVID directly, but natural gas prices were a large component, seeing fertilizer plants go offline in the mid-2021 timeframe[1].
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/16/business/natural-gas-pric...
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#213Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think people see a sea of corn and don’t appreciate nuance. The bigger issue that farmers are ignoring is water.
Farmers are well aware of water and the sustainablity of its sources. It just so happens that the equilibrium point they aim for is sustainability for them, not them & everybody else that happens to live downstream
The rate of depletion of large aquifers suggests that farmers don't care very much about sustainability of their water source. I think price is pretty much the only signal that farmers can afford to care about.
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#214A remarkable amount of the fertilizer applied via modern industrial farming practices is just wasted: > "According to an average of 13 global databases from 10 data sources, in 2010, 161 teragrams of nitrogen were applied to agricultural crops, but only 73 teragrams of nitrogen made it to the harvested crop. A total of 86 teragrams of nitrogen was wasted, perhaps ending up in the water, air, or soil. The new research…
I'd say the majority of that ends up in the sea, causing algae blooms and killing life for miles around. So worse than wasted.
A lot also ends up in the groundwater. It just takes a couple of decades to reach it.
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#215Few things have a single cause, but I think it's not outlandish to hypothesize that potential pending famines could be driven by a fertilizer shortage, driven by Russia's invasion and global economic issues, driven by the pandemic. Maybe this is obvious to those smarter than I, but I'm beginning to have a sinking sense that direct deaths by SARS-COV2 will be a shockingly small minority of total deaths caused by the p…
I doubt it. In as much as they are allowed to function, markets will reward people addressing the shortages with outsized profit. Same as getting through the energy crisis, we can overcome the food crisis, one obstacle at a time. The connectedness of economies is also an advantage. Shipping rates are almost at a 3-year low: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic The greatest risk are policies forbidding "price…
The market can stay in turmoil longer than people can go without food.
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#216Few things have a single cause, but I think it's not outlandish to hypothesize that potential pending famines could be driven by a fertilizer shortage, driven by Russia's invasion and global economic issues, driven by the pandemic. Maybe this is obvious to those smarter than I, but I'm beginning to have a sinking sense that direct deaths by SARS-COV2 will be a shockingly small minority of total deaths caused by the p…
I doubt it. In as much as they are allowed to function, markets will reward people addressing the shortages with outsized profit. Same as getting through the energy crisis, we can overcome the food crisis, one obstacle at a time. The connectedness of economies is also an advantage. Shipping rates are almost at a 3-year low: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic The greatest risk are policies forbidding "price…
spoken like a true hedge fund bro
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#217The real problem is majority of crops being grown for animal agriculture, which is an extremely wasteful way of producing food. We'd only need a fraction of the farmlands if we were actually eating the crops we grow. Sadly, we can't count on consumers making rational choices and politicians are not going to tank their popularity by pushing for these changes. It's the same as climate change.
> which is an extremely wasteful way of producing food.
Depends on what you are optimizing for.
As a farmer, I can make more money growing crops for human consumption. It is the most logical business model. But the real world is a harsh mistress and the nature of... nature means that is isn't realistic to grow the same crops over and over and over again. Disease, soil health, etc. requires crop rotation to sustain a viable farm.
Now the problem of equipment and markets. While I could theoretically introduce more human foods into the rotation, those human foods aren't compatible with the equipment I have. Nor is there a local market for them. This means more heavy iron, more trucking, more fuel, more fertilizer (no animals to help provide it), etc. Is that not a waste?
I primary grow food for humans, but every 2-4 years (depending on the quality of the farmland) in my rotation a field will get a crop destined for animal consumption to address soil health and disease/pest control most particularly. If there is a way to avoid this without simply trading for waste somewhere else, I'm all ears. I'd be happy to grow nothing but human food.
Agriculture is already excessively optimized to a fault, so it seems likely that we have already found what is least wasteful overall. Of course, if you want to minimize a specific waste to the detriment of others then no doubt the calculus changes.
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#218Earlier quoted context omitted.
CSAs where I live are a luxury good for a few people to feel better about themselves. You pay in much more than you get back (compared to a grocery store), and what you get is geared towards variety to make it more appealing. As such, you get enough of any particular veg for one or two meals, at a cost that is wildly expensive for most people. I tried one summer, and it was cute but replaced approximately 0% of our g…
Just to throw out some numbers, I pay $27/box for my fruit n' veg mix, which I could mostly replicate for maybe $15-20 at the grocery store. But the freshness can't be beat, and I think it's fun to see what I can do with whatever shows up. It's definitely not replacing my entire grocery bill, of course, but I do think it is worth it.
That' not bad. Where I am for $45, you get a big bad of lettuce, a couple of potatoes and an onion. Last years was so disappointed that we didn't renew. Ten years ago the same CSA was $600 for the season, 4 months, and it was a good sized bag with a pretty nice selection of produce. Granted I think every bag included some beets but by the middle of the season I really liked beets so it was a plus. Now it jut seems to be a better deal to go to the farmers market and get whatever looks good.
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#219Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not sure why the general tone of HN seems to be that modern farming isn't changing at all. Erosion has been on everyone's radar for decades. We went from plow -> till -> low till -> no till. Believe me, the folks who do this talk about plowing practices and cover crops. They also discuss GMO crops and the crazy legal restrictions around seed that come with it. > Brown earth has a deep top layer where most of the…
> I'm not sure why the general tone of HN seems to be that modern farming isn't changing at all. Indeed. Perhaps somewhere out there is a parallel forum filled with farmers opining about computer programming, with equally inane remarks like "Have those programmers ever thought about making languages that translate into machine code instead of writing everything out as ones and zeros?"
Most of those forums (which I have visited) are in person; they’re almost always complaining about the proprietary locked down code. Frankly, farmers are a more libertarian bunch than programmers.
Re: The fertilizer shortage will persist in 2023
#220Earlier quoted context omitted.
Farmers are well aware of water and the sustainablity of its sources. It just so happens that the equilibrium point they aim for is sustainability for them, not them & everybody else that happens to live downstream
The rate of depletion of large aquifers suggests that farmers don't care very much about sustainability of their water source. I think price is pretty much the only signal that farmers can afford to care about.
Depends where you live, but farmers around me are always monitoring everything — rainfall, water retention in the soil, aquifer levels, river and creek levels, etc.
That said, you’re right, they’re running a business. What they tend to do is use the smallest amount of water to produce good yields.
The only real thing a farmer can control are what they plant, when they water, when they fertilize and what they harvest (plus some maintenance, like weeding, but water isn’t impacted).
What farmers tend to do is water when necessary (between rain periods). They’ll also select different plants to grow based on price and watering schedule. That said; I’ve also seen farmers try to improve water retention (through tilling in cover crops and / or adding organic material). They’ve also built dams, etc to capture rain water and reduce erosion.
As far as I can tell, farmers do indeed try to conserve and utilize what they can. At the same time, water is being subsided by government and / or regulated. So places like California have a weird things like building farms in the desert. If the water prices were more free and people still build farms, I don’t see an issue frankly. They’re just using every drop before it gets to the sea. As the water depletes (ie too many farms) I imagine farmers will go elsewhere or change crops to become more efficient.
To be honest, I don’t see water management being too much of an issue at the moment. Plants have become increasingly drought resistant and we have the ability to breed and genetically modify them more so.