> It has to drop. ChatGPT can not source new truths except by rare accident.
How are we defining a "truth" here? For example, if I want to find specific SQL query, which will work for my specific database schema and my specific version of MySQL I won't find that online. Traditionally I'd need to come up with the new query for this novel scenario, or I'd need to ask someone to do it for me (perhaps on Stackoverflow). Now ChatGPT can come up with these new novel queries instead. You're right that it can't do it's own research and come up with fundamentally new information, but it can come up with answers to questions never before asked based on what it can infer from existing knowledge.
I'd argue most of the useful stuff people do isn't coming up with things that are fundamentally new, but applying things that are known in new and interesting ways. If you're a developer this is what you probably do every day of the week. And ChatGPT can absolutely do this.
Secondly, I'd also argue regurgitation of known facts is not necessarily without value either. A good example of this is your typical non-fiction / text book. If you write a text book about mathematics, you don't necessary have to include new information for it to be useful. Sometimes the value comes from the explanations, the presentation or a focus on lesser covered topics. Again, ChatGPT can absolutely do this. It already explains a lot of things to me better than humans can, so in that sense it is an increase in quality over what I'd already able to find online.
As for your point on authority I do agree with you somewhat there. I suppose the point I was trying to make is that this isn't a blind process. There are content sources which you can under weight, or simply non include, if it has a negative impact on the quality of the results. You can also improve algorithms to help the AI make better use of the information it's trained on. For example, if I asked you to read Buzzfeed for a week you wouldn't necessarily get any stupider because you're able to understand what's useful information and what's not.
I think all you really need to ask here is whether the next iteration of ChatGPT is likely to provide better results than the prior iteration, and will the iteration after that produce better results again? If your answer is yes, then it suggests the trend in quality would be higher, not lower, as a function of time.
Finally, wherever AI is applied the trend is always: sub human ability -> rivals that of the average human -> rivals that of the average elite human -> super human ability. Is language fundamentally different? Maybe? I think you can argue that generative AI is very different to the AI used for something like Chess, but it would at least be an expectation if future iterations of this AI got progressively worse. Maybe this the best ChatGPT will ever be at writing code. I guess I just think that is unlikely.
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Btw, this is just how I see things likely playing out. Given how new the technology is my certainty isn't very high. I initially agreed with your point of view, but the more I thought about my reasoning the more my position shifted.