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Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

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Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#61

Post by jchw »

smoldesu wrote: post #50
spijdar wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The only thing I really have any strong affection for is YouTube, and the people and content that made the platform special are constantly unhappy with it's corporate direction, not to mention the utter lack of support, claiming and affirming in appeals stupid pointless crap like "you said a naughty word in the first ten seconds of the video" when anyone with working ears can easily verify they did not. This is mos…

> the alternatives involve... no (automatic) monetization at all. This is 100% what it boils down to. Google is obviously not the only advertiser in town, but if the ad bubble pops, so does the free content economy on the internet. Some people will argue the internet would be better because of it, but the transition away from ad-supported viewership would decimate the web we know.

I'd argue the internet I liked most was decimated by the current free content economy, though.

I'm not saying I disagree with you by any means; a lot of what we would lose would be a great shame. Only the strongest creators could probably find a way to stay alive, likely through more direct sponsorship (both Patreon and well, traditional direct sponsors. You already see this a ton on YouTube anyways.)

I get that the internet will never be as scrappy and experimental as it once was, but the way monetization spread rewarded a lot of people who thrived off of essentially taking free stuff and monetizing it. I mean a lot. Think of "prominent" "content creators" and "influencers" like Fuck Jerry. In the process of doing this, I think all of the fun was milked out of everything. Today's internet feels like a giant strip mall.

I really do wonder if this is the best middleground we can get.

Of course, if ad-tech does turn out to be more or less a giant bubble and that bubble pops, we lose everything anyways, without any chance to transition, and all of the anguish was for naught. It feels like quite a gamble to keep hinging on this so strongly for the best content online, so I hope that the patronage model continues to grow.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#62

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

alexb_ wrote: post #57

AI is not the issue here. There is this very large assumption that just so happens to underpin a VERY large part of the tech industry, not just Google. It is assumed that ad spending will always be worth it, ad revenue will always increase, and that the market for digital advertising and targeted digital advertising in particular will always be large enough to support the behemoth that it is today. But what happens w…

> But what happens when marketing spend goes down (as it does in a recession)? What happens when customers aren't willing to pay as much for your advertising product (as happens in a recession)? What happens when borrowed money can't be secured easily, and debts come due (once again, as happens in a recession)?

Typically - what happens is - central banks lower interest rates until they're negative in real yields - and people start spending like crazy again.

Who knows what will happen in the future. But that's been the previous playbook.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#63

Post by dpkirchner »

labrador wrote: post #35
dpkirchner wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't access it now but what does it say if you ask for a naturalistic, brief prompt written like a friend of the reader?

Prompt: Write some ad copy for me in the style of a friend recommending I use superglue "Hey friend, have you ever had a broken vase or a pair of glasses that you thought were beyond repair? Well, let me tell you, super glue is a game changer. It's strong, fast-drying, and can fix just about anything. Trust me, I've used it on everything from ceramic to plastic and it works like a charm. So, next time you have a hous…

Those ain't great, ha. Thanks.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#64

Post by _jab »

smallerfish wrote: post #26
jchw wrote: post #14

Google is probably screwed without it. Even if ad-tech isn't exactly a bubble, I strongly believe it is overvalued even still. Furthermore, the product that made their name is thoroughly lost. I dread Google Search today. If I found something on Google yesterday, I have no idea if I'll be able to locate it through the sea of blog SPAM and SEO garbage tomorrow. Google web search strongly favors big websites when somet…

Almost a meme at this point: > I am not trying to suggest Duck Duck Go or Bing are actually better overall Kagi is, however. Well worth putting your money where your mouth is and supporting them.

Interesting - haven't heard of Kagi before but I looked them up and I can definitely see how a subscription-funded search engine leads to a better incentive structure. But can you provide qualitative examples of how your experience has been better than on Google?

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#65

Post by [deleted] »

spijdar wrote: post #37
jchw wrote: post #14

Google is probably screwed without it. Even if ad-tech isn't exactly a bubble, I strongly believe it is overvalued even still. Furthermore, the product that made their name is thoroughly lost. I dread Google Search today. If I found something on Google yesterday, I have no idea if I'll be able to locate it through the sea of blog SPAM and SEO garbage tomorrow. Google web search strongly favors big websites when somet…

> The only thing I really have any strong affection for is YouTube, and the people and content that made the platform special are constantly unhappy with it's corporate direction, not to mention the utter lack of support, claiming and affirming in appeals stupid pointless crap like "you said a naughty word in the first ten seconds of the video" when anyone with working ears can easily verify they did not. This is mos…

[deleted]

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#66

Post by [deleted] »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #62
alexb_ wrote: post #57

AI is not the issue here. There is this very large assumption that just so happens to underpin a VERY large part of the tech industry, not just Google. It is assumed that ad spending will always be worth it, ad revenue will always increase, and that the market for digital advertising and targeted digital advertising in particular will always be large enough to support the behemoth that it is today. But what happens w…

> But what happens when marketing spend goes down (as it does in a recession)? What happens when customers aren't willing to pay as much for your advertising product (as happens in a recession)? What happens when borrowed money can't be secured easily, and debts come due (once again, as happens in a recession)? Typically - what happens is - central banks lower interest rates until they're negative in real yields - an…

[deleted]

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#67

Post by harsh1618 »

SCHiM wrote: post #24
smoldesu wrote: post #4

But Alphabet will probably be fine. YouTube and Android are still billion-user products that aren't being displaced with AI, and their advertising business doesn't seem threatened much by this either. So what's the scoop? I use ChatGPT, it hasn't replaced my search engine. They're insisting that search is obsoleted with AI (and Google is spooked internally) but I have yet to see any research-based evidence supporting…

I recently asked gpt to give me a markdown table of the continents, their landmass and their populations. I checked the numbers and they matched wikipedia. Google gave me listicles instead...

The fact that you felt the need to check Wikipedia shows why LLMs can't replace search, at least not in their current form.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#69

Post by vineyardmike »

SCHiM wrote: post #24
smoldesu wrote: post #4

But Alphabet will probably be fine. YouTube and Android are still billion-user products that aren't being displaced with AI, and their advertising business doesn't seem threatened much by this either. So what's the scoop? I use ChatGPT, it hasn't replaced my search engine. They're insisting that search is obsoleted with AI (and Google is spooked internally) but I have yet to see any research-based evidence supporting…

I recently asked gpt to give me a markdown table of the continents, their landmass and their populations. I checked the numbers and they matched wikipedia. Google gave me listicles instead...

> I recently asked gpt to give me a markdown table of the continents, their landmass and their populations. I checked the numbers and they matched wikipedia.

But there is no reason to think that it will be correct, structurally. While you can find examples that work, the AI does not know the truth. An AI does NOT have an understanding of populations, locations, etc.

Google didn’t return answers, but it directed you to sites with answers. Those sites were like curated by hand by a human who does understand the meaning of the data

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#70

Post by mollusk_bound »

alexb_ wrote: post #57

AI is not the issue here. There is this very large assumption that just so happens to underpin a VERY large part of the tech industry, not just Google. It is assumed that ad spending will always be worth it, ad revenue will always increase, and that the market for digital advertising and targeted digital advertising in particular will always be large enough to support the behemoth that it is today. But what happens w…

Weren't all these questions answered during the great recession, It wasn't easy but Google weathered the storm. Why is any upcoming recession going to be substantially different.
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