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Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

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Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#31

Post by gjsman-1000 »

jeffbee wrote: post #25
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #6

Sometimes, I wonder if for the sake of small business and general good, if horizontal integration should be heavily regulated and restricted for publicly traded companies (not private ones). For example, Apple. Why aren't the software and hardware divisions separated, at a minimum? Furthermore, I might wonder, why couldn't iPhone, iPad, Mac, Audio Accessories etc. be separate companies? Sure, you'd lose a ton of the…

Software-hardware coevolution has large benefits to the consumer. What you are proposing is to just make the products worse and more expensive.

Here's the thing: That might be true, and yet, necessary for the good of society and the good of the long-term.

See, for example, Standard Oil. They massively lowered oil prices - we broke them up. See also AT&T. Once their usefulness as a monopoly ran out, we broke them up.

Plus, we can see that hardware-software coevolution has large benefits - but who is to say that having companies separate does not also have large benefits of its own? You might not have Windows shoving Microsoft Teams and Edge and Bing down your throat... or Apple pushing Apple Music to your parents. If Apple can't integrate, perhaps we'd have more open standards for interoperability.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#32

Post by [deleted] »

titzer wrote: post #22
smoldesu wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Truly, the problem is US complacency. It's a great day to tax businesses when US companies dominate the market, but as soon as a foreign competitor steps in? It's time to defend American competition and ingenuity! Hopefully, pushback from European regulators who are harder to fool (or buy out) will force the US to admit there's egg on our face. We've let corporate America write the rules for too long, and our democra…

> Hopefully, pushback from European regulators who are harder to fool (or buy out) will force the US to admit there's egg on our face. We've let corporate America write the rules for too long, and our democratic control over their abuse has become dilute and helpless. Something's gotta give, and I'm cheering for the countries that take user privacy and consumer rights seriously. Hopefully. But don't underestimate the…

[deleted]

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#33

Post by Someone »

smoldesu wrote: post #4

But Alphabet will probably be fine. YouTube and Android are still billion-user products that aren't being displaced with AI, and their advertising business doesn't seem threatened much by this either. So what's the scoop? I use ChatGPT, it hasn't replaced my search engine. They're insisting that search is obsoleted with AI (and Google is spooked internally) but I have yet to see any research-based evidence supporting…

> YouTube and Android are still billion-user products that aren't being displaced with AI

I think they care waaaay more for billion-dollar products than for billion-user products.

> and their advertising business doesn't seem threatened much by this either.

Is it? What fraction of their ad revenues comes from ads on search result pages?

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#34

Post by smoldesu »

SCHiM wrote: post #24
smoldesu wrote: post #4

But Alphabet will probably be fine. YouTube and Android are still billion-user products that aren't being displaced with AI, and their advertising business doesn't seem threatened much by this either. So what's the scoop? I use ChatGPT, it hasn't replaced my search engine. They're insisting that search is obsoleted with AI (and Google is spooked internally) but I have yet to see any research-based evidence supporting…

I recently asked gpt to give me a markdown table of the continents, their landmass and their populations. I checked the numbers and they matched wikipedia. Google gave me listicles instead...

I recently asked ChatGPT to multiply 2 numbers together. Every search engine I tried yielded a product, except ChatGPT which gave me an excuse.

They're useful in their own right, but you can't fool yourself into believing either one cannibalizes the other.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#35

Post by labrador »

dpkirchner wrote: post #17
labrador wrote: post #2

I tried to imagine an ad in chat output by asking ChatGPT a question and then making up an ad: Q: What is superglue? A: Super glue, also known as cyanoacrylate, is a type of adhesive that forms a strong bond quickly and can be used on a variety of surfaces. It is often used for small repairs, such as broken ceramics or toys, and can also be used in crafts and other projects. Super glue is available in liquid or gel f…

I can't access it now but what does it say if you ask for a naturalistic, brief prompt written like a friend of the reader?

Prompt: Write some ad copy for me in the style of a friend recommending I use superglue

"Hey friend, have you ever had a broken vase or a pair of glasses that you thought were beyond repair? Well, let me tell you, super glue is a game changer. It's strong, fast-drying, and can fix just about anything. Trust me, I've used it on everything from ceramic to plastic and it works like a charm. So, next time you have a household emergency, don't throw it away, just grab the super glue and fix it up like new. You'll be amazed at how easy and effective it is!"

Prompt: Write some ad copy for me in the style of a friend recommending I use Gorilla brand superglue

"Hey there! Are you tired of using weak, unreliable glues for your DIY projects and household repairs? Look no further than Gorilla super glue! This stuff is seriously strong and durable. I've used it to fix everything from a broken toy to a wobbly chair, and it holds up like a champ. Plus, it dries quickly and forms a bond that's almost impossible to break. I trust Gorilla super glue so much that I wouldn't use anything else. Give it a try, and you'll see the difference for yourself."

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#36

Post by paulcole »

jchw wrote: post #14

Google is probably screwed without it. Even if ad-tech isn't exactly a bubble, I strongly believe it is overvalued even still. Furthermore, the product that made their name is thoroughly lost. I dread Google Search today. If I found something on Google yesterday, I have no idea if I'll be able to locate it through the sea of blog SPAM and SEO garbage tomorrow. Google web search strongly favors big websites when somet…

You're ignoring mobile + local + timely searches which are incredibly common and very valuable. Google doesn't put "heavy weight" on Pinterest or "SPAM and SEO garbage" there. These SERPs are full of local and useful results and paid ads/placements. This is where Google's interests lie.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#37

Post by spijdar »

jchw wrote: post #14

Google is probably screwed without it. Even if ad-tech isn't exactly a bubble, I strongly believe it is overvalued even still. Furthermore, the product that made their name is thoroughly lost. I dread Google Search today. If I found something on Google yesterday, I have no idea if I'll be able to locate it through the sea of blog SPAM and SEO garbage tomorrow. Google web search strongly favors big websites when somet…

> The only thing I really have any strong affection for is YouTube, and the people and content that made the platform special are constantly unhappy with it's corporate direction, not to mention the utter lack of support, claiming and affirming in appeals stupid pointless crap like "you said a naughty word in the first ten seconds of the video" when anyone with working ears can easily verify they did not.

This is mostly an aside, but it's worth putting into perspective that many of these complaints are related to Google's ads and automatic monetization through ads, as well as their content recommendation network/userbase.

In other words, I think as Google's ad-revenue shrinks (or the bubble bursts), the Youtube ad policies will seem to become more and more draconian, but despite all the anger towards Youtube, the alternatives involve... no (automatic) monetization at all.

I don't think a lot of people are really conscious of how a lot of modern Youtube (specifically the big content creators who have made careers out of Google's monetization options) are implicitly reliant on Google's ad-tech bubble. And most people are pretty derisive of Google's attempts at alternative monetization e.g. youtube premium. I fear when the bubble bursts (or just shrinks a lot), a lot of the high quality content people enjoy on youtube will burst or shrink with it.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#38

Post by zone411 »

I think the opposite: Google will do great. Google+Deepmind's ML research groups are leading everyone. While it's true that they are late in getting something like ChatGPT to market, I think it was a wakeup call and it will be good for their ad revenues once they do. When they release it, they'll know much more about users' intent than from a simple search engine query and users will stay on their properties for longer. The concerns about cost are overblown - they don't need to run it for every query.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#39

Post by Tyr42 »

gumby wrote: post #15
smoldesu wrote: post #4

But Alphabet will probably be fine. YouTube and Android are still billion-user products that aren't being displaced with AI, and their advertising business doesn't seem threatened much by this either. So what's the scoop? I use ChatGPT, it hasn't replaced my search engine. They're insisting that search is obsoleted with AI (and Google is spooked internally) but I have yet to see any research-based evidence supporting…

The point made by the article is that these big lawsuits distracted management. And Google's management is so ineffective today, imagine how much worse it would be with this crowbar poked in.

Maybe they will slow down on the reorgs. Could be good.

Re: Google is screwed, even if it wins its antitrust case

#40

Post by jliptzin »

I don’t understand arguments that say google will be left in the dust when it comes to AI. There’s no network effects like Facebook, it just takes a lot of money to train the models, which google obviously has. Do we really believe google, with all its resources and engineering talent, has no ability to develop something on par with OpenAI?
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