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Netflix's New Chapter

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Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#151

I'm gonna attempt to break this down: - Netflix has 5-6 Billion USD free cash flow, and because they got what debt they do have under favorable terms, they are positioned to retain most of that free cash flow - Disney, Comcast (Peacock), CBS/Viacom and other media corporations are saddled with debt, and are all losing money on their own independent streaming businesses. Likely untenable in their shareholder model - T…

I think that in the long term needs to merge with someone with great content.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#152

> Three months later Netflix cut prices and referred to Amazon’s assumed imminent entry to the space; Netflix’s stock slid again. I never understood why Netflix would continue to become one of the largest AWS customers after Amazon entered the space. Will someone please enlighten me?

The same reason Apple buys iPhone displays from Samsung and has a search deal with Google. Companies can directly compete with each other while simultaneously having partnerships and signing win-win deals. Happens in business all the time.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#153
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Octonauts would like to have a word

sound the Octo-Alert!

Ok, totally off topic, but am I the only one that hears “Explore, Rescue, Rrotect” rather than “Protect” in the intro?

See here at 0:40ish: https://youtu.be/mR_Ui_3Iz2o

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#154

I'm gonna attempt to break this down: - Netflix has 5-6 Billion USD free cash flow, and because they got what debt they do have under favorable terms, they are positioned to retain most of that free cash flow - Disney, Comcast (Peacock), CBS/Viacom and other media corporations are saddled with debt, and are all losing money on their own independent streaming businesses. Likely untenable in their shareholder model - T…

Is HBO max that big? I only hear about it from time to time, it feels very English-language. I have 2 netflix subs I share between my Chinese and French family and I admit Disney+ has a huge advantage for kids stuff I couldnt get anywhere else, so they'll likely last.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#155
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disney is currently suffering under a load of debt from their Fox acquisition. I'm not sure going on a spending spree is in their favor. With Netflix's low debt load and free cash flow, they should actually be in a better position for buying up competitors.

No one is going on a spending spree right now. But, if someone asked me after consolidation who would be the last ones standing, it would be Netflix and Disney.

Well, and Amazon--if only because Amazon can probably ratchet down content spend while Amazon Prime stays attractive for other reasons.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s Disney’s content That is partly the problem. You spend hundreds of millions to make blockbuster movies and then release it on Disney+ in a few months for free (or sometimes directly). That costs money. Add to that over reliance on only Disney content creates two problems: 1. You can’t have enough new content every month, subscribers therefore don’t keep the subscription year round. 2. You have to pay money to…

"1. You can’t have enough new content every month, subscribers therefore don’t keep the subscription year round." For our household, this is true of all streaming services. We rotate them, or subscribe for short stretches. For example, I got Paramount+ for a couple of months, watched all of the Star Trek content, and then cancelled. Amazon Prime is the exception (because free(-ish) shipping.) I wonder to what extent…

> I wonder to what extent the big streaming services are aware of this phenomenon and how they hope to mitigate it.

I suspect that not many people do this.

It it becomes a problem, they can always bring back the old weekly episode model.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s Disney’s content That is partly the problem. You spend hundreds of millions to make blockbuster movies and then release it on Disney+ in a few months for free (or sometimes directly). That costs money. Add to that over reliance on only Disney content creates two problems: 1. You can’t have enough new content every month, subscribers therefore don’t keep the subscription year round. 2. You have to pay money to…

On top of the... 'opportunity cost' of not licensing out content that otherwise would have went to Netflix, ABC, whoever. If previously Disney made Daredevil and 'sold' it to Netflix for $1m (hypothetically), but now you're holding that back to stream yourself, you've got to account for that missing $1m somehow.

No you don't. You don't normally include opportunity cost on your balance sheet.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#158
post #104
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TBH this more or less describes the problem at least for me. I'm like 3 Star Wars series behind. Catching up at this point feels more like a chore than entertainment. Forget Marvel.

here's some advice, skip everything else, just watch Andor, it's fantastic, best Star Wars since Empire. Other stuff has been hit or miss.

Star Wars: Visions is good if you like anime.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s Disney’s content That is partly the problem. You spend hundreds of millions to make blockbuster movies and then release it on Disney+ in a few months for free (or sometimes directly). That costs money. Add to that over reliance on only Disney content creates two problems: 1. You can’t have enough new content every month, subscribers therefore don’t keep the subscription year round. 2. You have to pay money to…

"1. You can’t have enough new content every month, subscribers therefore don’t keep the subscription year round." For our household, this is true of all streaming services. We rotate them, or subscribe for short stretches. For example, I got Paramount+ for a couple of months, watched all of the Star Trek content, and then cancelled. Amazon Prime is the exception (because free(-ish) shipping.) I wonder to what extent…

The services definitely know about this and to a large extent they build it into their model. Every subscription service has a churn model being accounted for.

The services also know that the only thing they can do about this is release enough new content to keep users engaged, or bundle the subscription with other ones.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#160
post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On top of the... 'opportunity cost' of not licensing out content that otherwise would have went to Netflix, ABC, whoever. If previously Disney made Daredevil and 'sold' it to Netflix for $1m (hypothetically), but now you're holding that back to stream yourself, you've got to account for that missing $1m somehow.

No you don't. You don't normally include opportunity cost on your balance sheet.

yes and no. The problem is if last year they earned $1m from it by it being on Netflix. Moving it to their own streaming platform will look like a $1m less revenue.
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