Netflix's New Chapter • Hacker News Board

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#71

Post by treis » Mon, Jan 23, 2023, 5:40 PM UTC

no_wizard wrote: post #7

I'm gonna attempt to break this down: - Netflix has 5-6 Billion USD free cash flow, and because they got what debt they do have under favorable terms, they are positioned to retain most of that free cash flow - Disney, Comcast (Peacock), CBS/Viacom and other media corporations are saddled with debt, and are all losing money on their own independent streaming businesses. Likely untenable in their shareholder model - T…

>- Netflix has 5-6 Billion USD free cash flow, and because they got what debt they do have under favorable terms, they are positioned to retain most of that free cash flow

This is a bit off. They had 1.6 billion in FCF in 2022 & project 3 billion for 2023:

https://s22.q4cdn.com/959853165/files/doc_financials/2022/q4...

That said, to me Netflix feels like it is lagging. Not enough to really hurt subscriber numbers yet. But feels like it's stuck in a local minima of A/B testing. Like they've driven me to the line of canceling. Which is good for them because I haven't yet but risky because Netflix is more a habit/default for me these days. Pretty close to canceling and not sure what would draw me back if I did.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#72

Post by treis » Mon, Jan 23, 2023, 5:42 PM UTC

mardifoufs wrote: post #63

tootie wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, D+ is churning out an enormous volume of what would be considered prestige content at other services. All the Star Wars and Marvel shows are star-studded and larded with top-tier visual effects. And some of them aren't really getting a lot of viewers from what the rumors say.

That's why it's so surprising imo. Disney+ has a very wide and deep catalog of pre-existing IP, and I would have imagined that most subscribers care more about that than any future original production. So it's weird to see them invest so much in new content, more so than competitors that have a much weaker, smaller catalog. Especially when the content is made exclusively for Disney+. But I'm almost certainly complete…

Think it's a bit of a double edge sword. Disney+ is all Disney IP which is great for those that like it. But if you're not into Marvel or Star Wars or the kids catalogue there's not a lot there.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#73

Post by publicola1990 » Mon, Jan 23, 2023, 5:43 PM UTC

no_wizard wrote: post #7

I'm gonna attempt to break this down: - Netflix has 5-6 Billion USD free cash flow, and because they got what debt they do have under favorable terms, they are positioned to retain most of that free cash flow - Disney, Comcast (Peacock), CBS/Viacom and other media corporations are saddled with debt, and are all losing money on their own independent streaming businesses. Likely untenable in their shareholder model - T…

What about the state of affairs in emerging markets, which are likely going to be bigger revenue source than US/Europe in the not too distant future?

Also what about (live) sports coverage? Does Netflix have a strategy there? For many subscribers it is appealing if their streaming service carries sports coverage.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#74

Post by thedrbrian » Mon, Jan 23, 2023, 5:44 PM UTC

tootie wrote: post #47

phphphphp wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Content is expensive to produce. Disney+ is not just a streaming platform for existing Disney content, rather, Disney produce content for it. Likewise, Netflix spends most of its money on content, operating the actual platform is comparatively cheap.

Yeah, D+ is churning out an enormous volume of what would be considered prestige content at other services. All the Star Wars and Marvel shows are star-studded and larded with top-tier visual effects. And some of them aren't really getting a lot of viewers from what the rumors say.

>All the Star Wars and Marvel shows are star-studded and larded with top-tier visual effects.

I'm just going to throw this out there. What if these shows just aren't that good?

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#75

Post by Volundr » Mon, Jan 23, 2023, 5:44 PM UTC

tootie wrote: post #47

phphphphp wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Content is expensive to produce. Disney+ is not just a streaming platform for existing Disney content, rather, Disney produce content for it. Likewise, Netflix spends most of its money on content, operating the actual platform is comparatively cheap.

Yeah, D+ is churning out an enormous volume of what would be considered prestige content at other services. All the Star Wars and Marvel shows are star-studded and larded with top-tier visual effects. And some of them aren't really getting a lot of viewers from what the rumors say.

TBH this more or less describes the problem at least for me. I'm like 3 Star Wars series behind. Catching up at this point feels more like a chore than entertainment. Forget Marvel.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#76

Post by scarface74 » Mon, Jan 23, 2023, 5:45 PM UTC

publicola1990 wrote: post #73

no_wizard wrote: post #7

I'm gonna attempt to break this down: - Netflix has 5-6 Billion USD free cash flow, and because they got what debt they do have under favorable terms, they are positioned to retain most of that free cash flow - Disney, Comcast (Peacock), CBS/Viacom and other media corporations are saddled with debt, and are all losing money on their own independent streaming businesses. Likely untenable in their shareholder model - T…

What about the state of affairs in emerging markets, which are likely going to be bigger revenue source than US/Europe in the not too distant future? Also what about (live) sports coverage? Does Netflix have a strategy there? For many subscribers it is appealing if their streaming service carries sports coverage.

The ARPU is a lot smaller and the article even calls out that different markers want local content meaning that content costs will also grow.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#77

Post by ApolloFortyNine » Mon, Jan 23, 2023, 5:47 PM UTC

matwood wrote: post #17

no_wizard wrote: post #7

I'm gonna attempt to break this down: - Netflix has 5-6 Billion USD free cash flow, and because they got what debt they do have under favorable terms, they are positioned to retain most of that free cash flow - Disney, Comcast (Peacock), CBS/Viacom and other media corporations are saddled with debt, and are all losing money on their own independent streaming businesses. Likely untenable in their shareholder model - T…

Good summary. Couple notes/IMOs... HBO Max is great, but it's tied to a terrible management/company anchor. Rumor is now they are going to drop the trusted HBO brand smh. Netflix is well positioned, but a player like Disney is also setup to acquire other streamers as they fall over from cost structure issues. I think we're about to see mass consolidation. Finally, I'm kind of sad that I think the content 'golden era'…

HBO max doesn't even have every HBO show, they dropped west world from the platform.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#78

Post by scarface74 » Mon, Jan 23, 2023, 5:48 PM UTC

jdmichal wrote: post #39

matwood wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good summary. Couple notes/IMOs... HBO Max is great, but it's tied to a terrible management/company anchor. Rumor is now they are going to drop the trusted HBO brand smh. Netflix is well positioned, but a player like Disney is also setup to acquire other streamers as they fall over from cost structure issues. I think we're about to see mass consolidation. Finally, I'm kind of sad that I think the content 'golden era'…

Disney is currently suffering under a load of debt from their Fox acquisition. I'm not sure going on a spending spree is in their favor. With Netflix's low debt load and free cash flow, they should actually be in a better position for buying up competitors.

Disney also will probably make more money on its four biggest movie releases this year than Netflix makes in all.

Avatar 2- a movie that came from its Fox acquisition has already made over $2 Billion

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#79

Post by jdmichal » Mon, Jan 23, 2023, 5:49 PM UTC

matwood wrote: post #68

jdmichal wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disney is currently suffering under a load of debt from their Fox acquisition. I'm not sure going on a spending spree is in their favor. With Netflix's low debt load and free cash flow, they should actually be in a better position for buying up competitors.

No one is going on a spending spree right now. But, if someone asked me after consolidation who would be the last ones standing, it would be Netflix and Disney.

I agree with you 100% on that. I just disagree that Disney is well positioned to take part in consolidation. They might be able to pull off some content licensing like Netflix used to do. But right now, the only thing holding Disney afloat is the parks. And they've certainly upset some fans to make that statement true.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#80

Post by publicola1990 » Mon, Jan 23, 2023, 5:50 PM UTC

scarface74 wrote: post #76

publicola1990 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about the state of affairs in emerging markets, which are likely going to be bigger revenue source than US/Europe in the not too distant future? Also what about (live) sports coverage? Does Netflix have a strategy there? For many subscribers it is appealing if their streaming service carries sports coverage.

The ARPU is a lot smaller and the article even calls out that different markers want local content meaning that content costs will also grow.

ARPU could be smaller but the user volumes would be much higher. In absolute terms it could be a significant portion of revenue. Netflix perhaps is not doing as well in these markets, presently.

There are reports that Netflix is doing badly in India, for example, which is a massive potential market.