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Netflix's New Chapter

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Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#101

Post by jessaustin »

throwaway894345 wrote: post #89
treis wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Think it's a bit of a double edge sword. Disney+ is all Disney IP which is great for those that like it. But if you're not into Marvel or Star Wars or the kids catalogue there's not a lot there.

Yeah, this is my family. We don't have kids, but we probably wouldn't have D+ if it didn't come bundled with our Verizon bill. I don't know how everyone else is managing, but I'm suuuuuuuper burned out on superhero and star wars movies. It really feels like Disney in particular but Hollywood more generally need to branch out more and not rely so much on stamping out franchise films--they're good for an occasional fli…

...we probably wouldn't have D+ if it didn't come bundled with our Verizon bill.

This feels like it should be illegal. You're certainly paying for D+, and it's not as though Verizon competes in a free market.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#102

Post by JakeTheAndroid »

thiago_fm wrote: post #16

Something I don't understand is why Disney and others need to have their own streaming service. Why Netflix can't sit down with Disney and merge the two streaming services. Disney is amazing at making content, so is Netflix at the moment. They could take a look at the present, their market cap, debt and so on and structure a solution that would: 1. Make Netflix the best streaming service with the best content, also b…

Well this is already sort of the case. But instead of Netflix it's Hulu. Hulu was the sort of agnostic platform that included live TV and needed to be able to VOD all the shows available on live TV networks. Now, you bundle Hulu + ESPN + Disney. Until every company wanted their own streaming service, Hulu was where you could find broad network content. And they even have commercials, so it worked great by classical TV metrics.

The issue is, Hulu created content is meh. Hulu's UI is meh. And Hulu doesn't aggregate ESPN+ and Disney+ in a single pane. And now everyone wants to own their own cut of the streaming service pie. So there was a push for this type of service that saw the incumbents rallying together against Netflix. For whatever reason that wasn't good enough for them, so the idea that now they will just partner with Netflix seems unlikely.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#103

Post by semireg »

scarface74 wrote: post #58
darth_avocado wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s Disney’s content That is partly the problem. You spend hundreds of millions to make blockbuster movies and then release it on Disney+ in a few months for free (or sometimes directly). That costs money. Add to that over reliance on only Disney content creates two problems: 1. You can’t have enough new content every month, subscribers therefore don’t keep the subscription year round. 2. You have to pay money to…

That’s not entirely true. Disney+ is partially losing money because of “transfer payments”. Disney+ has to “pay” Disney studios the market rate for the right to stream a movie. Of course the money mostly flows up to Disney. But from an accounting standpoint, Disney+ can’t say it’s profitable by getting movies for free from Disney studios and cause Disney studios to lose potential profits they could have made elsewher…

There’s no where else to say this, but for wholesome kids entertainment, Bluey is hard to beat. Every 10 minute episode is basically a guide on how to play. Kids love it. Parents relearn how to play. It’s so charming and ridiculous. Totally worth the money.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#104

Post by cwmma »

Volundr wrote: post #75
tootie wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, D+ is churning out an enormous volume of what would be considered prestige content at other services. All the Star Wars and Marvel shows are star-studded and larded with top-tier visual effects. And some of them aren't really getting a lot of viewers from what the rumors say.

TBH this more or less describes the problem at least for me. I'm like 3 Star Wars series behind. Catching up at this point feels more like a chore than entertainment. Forget Marvel.

here's some advice, skip everything else, just watch Andor, it's fantastic, best Star Wars since Empire. Other stuff has been hit or miss.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#105

Post by xylophile »

jdorfman wrote: post #90

> Three months later Netflix cut prices and referred to Amazon’s assumed imminent entry to the space; Netflix’s stock slid again. I never understood why Netflix would continue to become one of the largest AWS customers after Amazon entered the space. Will someone please enlighten me?

Switching cloud providers at Netflix's scale is an enormous multi-year technical undertaking, plus they would be exposed to the risk of two cloud providers instead of one while in transition, plus there are a lot of unknowns in switching providers at that scale which have all been ironed out over the years at AWS, and which could negatively impact customer perception of their product. Plus, as one of the showcase examples of cloud computing success that AWS loves to refer to, I'm sure that Netflix has some sweetheart deals that are difficult to compete with. It would take many many years for "dollars diverted from our competitor" to come close to "dollars spent executing the transition", even with the assumption that a successful transition is possible.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#106

Post by coredog64 »

jdorfman wrote: post #90

> Three months later Netflix cut prices and referred to Amazon’s assumed imminent entry to the space; Netflix’s stock slid again. I never understood why Netflix would continue to become one of the largest AWS customers after Amazon entered the space. Will someone please enlighten me?

Amazon doesn’t really compete with Netflix. Prime Video is there as a marginal benefit to keep customers paying for Prime, which in turn keeps them shopping at Amazon. The Prime catalog frequently changes to the point that a third or even half of my bookmarks are either pay-to-rent or just not available at all.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#107

Post by theptip »

zamadatix wrote: post #11
no_wizard wrote: post #7

I'm gonna attempt to break this down: - Netflix has 5-6 Billion USD free cash flow, and because they got what debt they do have under favorable terms, they are positioned to retain most of that free cash flow - Disney, Comcast (Peacock), CBS/Viacom and other media corporations are saddled with debt, and are all losing money on their own independent streaming businesses. Likely untenable in their shareholder model - T…

What I don't understand is how e.g. Disney+ is losing so much money. It's Disney's content, has an enormous userbase, and somehow is bleeding billions?

I don't know any detail on Disney's debt, but worth noting that a lot of "Disney's content" is stuff they just bought. E.g. they bought ESPN, the Marvel Cinematic Universe, etc. These are massive multi-billion purchases. Breaking even on the content purchases is hard work.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#108

Post by skydhash »

horsawlarway wrote: post #87
treis wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>- Netflix has 5-6 Billion USD free cash flow, and because they got what debt they do have under favorable terms, they are positioned to retain most of that free cash flow This is a bit off. They had 1.6 billion in FCF in 2022 & project 3 billion for 2023: https://s22.q4cdn.com/959853165/files/doc_financials/2022/q4... That said, to me Netflix feels like it is lagging. Not enough to really hurt subscriber numbers yet…

They lost me this year. I had been a subscriber for 12 years. Between the ads and the complete inability to let a show run more than 2 seasons unless it's a global hit... I'm no longer interested. I've had a kid - and my viewing habits have changed. I can't always watch a show right when it drops. The reality of my life is that I have other things going on, and I rarely have 10+ hours of uninterrupted time. But now..…

I dont have a kid, but between work, chores, and other hobbies, I can only have 1 or 2 hours a day to watch anything. I can only slot a movie or a single episode within that time frame. Also, it’s something I do together with my partner so we always pick something that suits us both. And our backlog is getting bigger as we are adding older movies.

The cancellation of 1899 was a big blow for me. It’s the kind of show you can’t really binge watch as it requires focus to really follow what’s going on. And I think it would have grown its audience organically over time.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#109

Post by nickthegreek »

ApolloFortyNine wrote: post #77
matwood wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good summary. Couple notes/IMOs... HBO Max is great, but it's tied to a terrible management/company anchor. Rumor is now they are going to drop the trusted HBO brand smh. Netflix is well positioned, but a player like Disney is also setup to acquire other streamers as they fall over from cost structure issues. I think we're about to see mass consolidation. Finally, I'm kind of sad that I think the content 'golden era'…

HBO max doesn't even have every HBO show, they dropped west world from the platform.

and Minx and Raised by Wolves.

Re: Netflix's New Chapter

#110

Post by saghm »

JackFr wrote: post #93
thedrbrian wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>All the Star Wars and Marvel shows are star-studded and larded with top-tier visual effects. I'm just going to throw this out there. What if these shows just aren't that good?

Also if you’re not into superheroes and Star Wars, despite it being Disney there’s not a ton there.

Even if you are, there's the chance that the glut of the content coming out causes fatigue. I used to really look forward to new Star Wars things because it didn't come out super frequently (a new trilogy of movies every few decades, a TV show here and there), but it was enjoyable. Then they started coming out with a new movie and multiple TV shows year after year, and it just wasn't good enough to justify going out of my way to consume all of it. Marvel stuff seems the same way; I'd generally go to the movies maybe once or twice a year, so when there are half a dozen of them coming out for a single franchise within a year or two, it feels more like work than entertainment to keep up with it all. At this point, I'm not sure I'll _ever_ go to see a Star Wars movie in a theater again, which is extraordinary since even 5 or 6 years ago that would have seemed ludicrous to me.
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