Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've been on the fediverse for years and while I enjoy it, I think it's naive to think it'll replace Twitter. Fundamentally it lacks good discovery, features take too long to implement (or simply can't be implemented), and verification is impossible without setting up your own server which seems like too much overhead imo. Further it just doesn't scale, although Andrew Torba was never known for his coding ability the…
I don't know what it even means for this to "scale". I think people right now are hung up on Mastodon-the-social-network, the way it's been principally used until fairly recently, where people share servers and servers have a discernible culture, moderation, rules, community, that kind of thing. I don't think that's going to last long at all. The Mastodon that stands a very good chance of killing Twitter is Mastodon-…
The problem with social media right now is the lack of a non-adversarial, sustainable business model. All these changes stem from the fact that advertising-based business models are on their last legs and are fundamentally flawed because they are adversarial to the users - the Twitter API shutdown is at least partly because they want to drive everyone to use the official client where it's easier to impose user-hostile functionality.
Decentralisation merely side-steps this problem which works on a very small scale but not only will break down at a larger scale (operating a social media platform costs money) but also brings a lot of its own issues. Part of the appeal of a social media platform is its popularity, network effects and a sense of community where most people are happy with or at least tolerate the rules and moderation policy.
A Mastodon-powered future will have 2 outcomes:
1) every instance federates with everyone and the entire thing becomes flooded with spam and other unsavoury (or outright illegal, at least in some jurisdictions) content because there is no common moderation policy. Users eventually get fed up and leave to a centralised competitor.
2) instances federate on a case-by-case basis which fundamentally breaks network effects and makes global conversation and community building impossible. Good luck explaining to non-technical users why they can't see/interact with the same posts as their friends because they happen to be on different instances that don't federate with each other, or because the content they both want to see is on a separate instance that doesn't federate with theirs. Users get fed up & leave or can't get started to begin with and sign up on a centralised competitor instead.
In both cases I haven't even addressed the issue of funding the network itself - there is still no business model (and any business model where users pay would require the service to have enough value for them to begin doing so - chicken & egg problem when the value of a social network is in its network effects), and even if there was, it will be more expensive because decentralisation requires a lot more system resources.