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The Scandal of Financial Nihilism

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Re: The Scandal of Financial Nihilism

#111

Post by ajmurmann »

danuker wrote: post #94
ajmurmann wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this here is the key. Automation (not globalisation) has removed many entry level and low so jobs. At the same time we have artificial scarcity through regulations in the housing market to keep neighborhood character and see the cost of required services that cannot be automated easily like health care and education go up and up. Instead of increasing wealth redistribution to compensate for the wealth central…

> education I argue it can be automated. I have learned more from ML MOOCs than from my Romanian college.

100% agree that we could, but social dynamics seem to prevent it from happening.

Re: The Scandal of Financial Nihilism

#112

Post by ajmurmann »

nerdponx wrote: post #90
ajmurmann wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"when all the millennials get no inheritance, because the healthcare costs for their parents will basically eat everything" I wonder if this one will be even worse in the US. Much of the market going up and up is because index funds have become the default retirement vehicle. So every month billions flow into the market no matter what. What will happen when the largest generation stops contributing and instead starts…

Younger generations are offsetting this with their own retirement savings. I've seen it argued that millennials are under-saving compared to their parents, but I remember seeing some data recently that contradicted this assertion. I would not be surprised if it were less evenly-distributed across the economy than prior generations. I don't think we are going to see net outflow from the stock market, maybe just a decr…

"Younger generations are offsetting this with their own retirement savings."

The problem is that the generationd after the boomers are smaller, especially in countries like Germany, China and Japan which have been economic power houses.

Re: The Scandal of Financial Nihilism

#113

Post by jimbokun »

hgomersall wrote: post #26
TheFattestNinja wrote: post #16

The post is kind of all over the place, more like an internal reflection than a normal message to others, but it does resonate with me on one point specifically: I am an "official" millennial, born 1989. One thing I have noticed (in an anectodical, personal and subjective way) is that my age bracket, especially those I would consider higher on an intelligence/success curve, appear to be so much more closet-nihilist t…

I have a different take on why we want to see the world burn: we can see the world on fire, but seemingly lots of people don't (at least, not enough to do anything about it). We hope that if the burn increases a little bit now, people will notice before it starts burn uncontrollably in a few years, so start working to stop the fire.

That may accurately explain how many people are feeling, but it's a very stupid take in my opinion.

I don't know that there is much historical precedent for a "controlled burn". When things go tits up, there's generally a big increase in suffering that comes along with it, and still no guarantee things will get fundamentally better after that.

Re: The Scandal of Financial Nihilism

#114

Post by ajmurmann »

kneebonian wrote: post #103
ajmurmann wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"when all the millennials get no inheritance, because the healthcare costs for their parents will basically eat everything" I wonder if this one will be even worse in the US. Much of the market going up and up is because index funds have become the default retirement vehicle. So every month billions flow into the market no matter what. What will happen when the largest generation stops contributing and instead starts…

So I talk about him a lot but one of the things Petar Zeihan points out is that we are rushing head long towards the greatest contraction of capital that will be seen in our lifetimes, our parents lifetimes, and our children's lifetimes. Basically the boomers are retiring cashing out their 401ks causing that money to no longer to be available for investment and contracting the money supply at the same time the younge…

I'm definitely a Zeihan acolyte as well. His analysis usually seems very logical and entirely based in indisputable facts. I do sometimes wonder though given the significance of his predictions why I'm not hearing more arguments against his forecast.

Re: The Scandal of Financial Nihilism

#115

Post by revolvingocelot »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #84
revolvingocelot wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Either that, or they're history buffs. What precipitates the redistribution of wealth, historically? Some kind of gigantic disaster -- war, famine, plague, social collapse. There's never been a time when the oligarchs/monarchy/landed-gentry just calmly gave up their temporal power after listening to reasoned socioeconomic arguments. It's always been some sort of calamity. You might find that those idiots are indeed a…

> Either that, or they're history buffs. What precipitates the redistribution of wealth, historically? Some kind of gigantic disaster -- war, famine, plague, social collapse. You're mistaking redistribution for destruction... Sure, things are technically more equal if everyone becomes homeless. But there wasn't really a redistribution...

>You're mistaking redistribution for destruction...

No, you are. With respect, you should consider reading some history. Try reading about the conditions of the peasantry after the black plague, or postwar Europe, or even the various falls of the various iterations of Rome. Fire destroys the previous order, yes, but it also sows the seeds for growth.

But fire bad! Yes, yes, I know; but this forest isn't the only forest, nor is it the only possible forest. Fire bad, but fire is the only way to fix this situation, because of the way "we" have "managed" our "forests" for as long as I've been alive. Maybe I need to be a Boomer to properly "understand". If there's another solution, I'm all ears, but history suggests that fire is the only solution.

Re: The Scandal of Financial Nihilism

#116

Post by jimbokun »

kneebonian wrote: post #104
ajmurmann wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this here is the key. Automation (not globalisation) has removed many entry level and low so jobs. At the same time we have artificial scarcity through regulations in the housing market to keep neighborhood character and see the cost of required services that cannot be automated easily like health care and education go up and up. Instead of increasing wealth redistribution to compensate for the wealth central…

I'd argue it's the other way all of the things you listed, healthcare, education, and housing are hugely subsidized by the governemnt. Healthcare through medica(r|d)e, education through pell grants and loans, and homes through the tax breaks associated. These things all together result in the massive increase in cost of these things, because the government is redistributing wealth from others to those industries.

I agree with you 100%, and its seems very difficult to explain this to people in terms of politics.

The intuition is that grants and loans make education more affordable, but in the medium to long term they just inflate the cost of tuition for everyone.

Similarly for healthcare and housing.

Feel like we either need to socialize these sectors of the economy, or go full free market. But a system half way in between doesn't work.

(My personal preference would be to largely socialize healthcare and education, while pushing for more free market reforms for housing, to encourage new development and increase the housing supply.)

Re: The Scandal of Financial Nihilism

#117

Post by tristor »

nerdponx wrote: post #90
ajmurmann wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"when all the millennials get no inheritance, because the healthcare costs for their parents will basically eat everything" I wonder if this one will be even worse in the US. Much of the market going up and up is because index funds have become the default retirement vehicle. So every month billions flow into the market no matter what. What will happen when the largest generation stops contributing and instead starts…

Younger generations are offsetting this with their own retirement savings. I've seen it argued that millennials are under-saving compared to their parents, but I remember seeing some data recently that contradicted this assertion. I would not be surprised if it were less evenly-distributed across the economy than prior generations. I don't think we are going to see net outflow from the stock market, maybe just a decr…

> Younger generations are offsetting this with their own retirement savings.

Sounds like a Ponzi scheme, just like Social Security and pensions.

Re: The Scandal of Financial Nihilism

#118

Post by newsclues »

revolvingocelot wrote: post #115
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Either that, or they're history buffs. What precipitates the redistribution of wealth, historically? Some kind of gigantic disaster -- war, famine, plague, social collapse. You're mistaking redistribution for destruction... Sure, things are technically more equal if everyone becomes homeless. But there wasn't really a redistribution...

>You're mistaking redistribution for destruction... No, you are. With respect, you should consider reading some history. Try reading about the conditions of the peasantry after the black plague, or postwar Europe, or even the various falls of the various iterations of Rome. Fire destroys the previous order, yes, but it also sows the seeds for growth. But fire bad! Yes, yes, I know; but this forest isn't the only fore…

Ok, so if we destroy the current order, how many people will die or suffer?

How long until the growth occurs, and how fast will it take to get back to the current state of things?

Re: The Scandal of Financial Nihilism

#119

Post by newsclues »

glogla wrote: post #55
newsclues wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of people our age feel like the world is bad and unjust and destroying current civilization through revolution will result in a just and good society. These people are idiots who aren’t aware of the death and destruction this will cause and things will likely be much worse after.

Yes. Destroying the world will kill me. But it will kill Elon Musk as well. Perhaps even in a gruesome and funny way. If I was considering existence not worth it, it might look like a good trade.

What a revolting comment.

Re: The Scandal of Financial Nihilism

#120

Post by hgomersall »

revolvingocelot wrote: post #48
newsclues wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of people our age feel like the world is bad and unjust and destroying current civilization through revolution will result in a just and good society. These people are idiots who aren’t aware of the death and destruction this will cause and things will likely be much worse after.

Either that, or they're history buffs. What precipitates the redistribution of wealth, historically? Some kind of gigantic disaster -- war, famine, plague, social collapse. There's never been a time when the oligarchs/monarchy/landed-gentry just calmly gave up their temporal power after listening to reasoned socioeconomic arguments. It's always been some sort of calamity. You might find that those idiots are indeed a…

> [1] Huh, I don't know why I typed that at all. After all, we're talking about forestry

No, I don't know why you typed that either, but you seem to have repeated a common trope that somehow MMT is responsible for something (inflation? general badness?). Given that no country is making policy decisions based on what MMT economics prescribes, that trope is of course complete nonsense, since responsibility would at least imply some level of influence.

Edit: FWIW, I actually get your point about revolutions generally precipitating improvements (eventually).

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