The myth of Japan's failure • Hacker News Board

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#31

Post by OstiaAntica » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 3:59 PM UTC

DrCatbox wrote: post #15

mbesto wrote: post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

Employment, I ask why? Seriously, full employment is a threat not a promise. Who wants to really work? For what? Mandatory vacations, 6 months per year, 5 hour work day. Then we can have full employment. As said in another comment, growth is required to spend more time with family, leisure and to do things that we really want. Well thats not the case, since no matter how much growth there is and how much an economy i…

You have fallen for the fallacy that there's a fixed amount of "work" in the economy. That's been disproven time and again, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy

Rather, employment is a dynamic pie that can grow as more people add skills and put those skills to work.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#32

Post by bjornsing » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 4:11 PM UTC

I think a major factor determining your opinion on Japan's "lost decade(s)" is how you view inflation. Those who stand to benefit from more (stealth) inflation (politicians / bankers with access to the fed discount window / those with highly mortgaged real-estate) will see those decades as truly lost, but those that generally stand to benefit from less inflation (savers / "main street") will view those decades in a more positive light.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#33

Post by Tycho » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 4:21 PM UTC

mike-cardwell wrote: post #21

DrCatbox wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Employment, I ask why? Seriously, full employment is a threat not a promise. Who wants to really work? For what? Mandatory vacations, 6 months per year, 5 hour work day. Then we can have full employment. As said in another comment, growth is required to spend more time with family, leisure and to do things that we really want. Well thats not the case, since no matter how much growth there is and how much an economy i…

With six months vacation per year, people would still complain about having to work too much.

They would also complain that those who wanted to work 80 hours per week were stealing all of society's wealth, or something.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#34

Post by philwelch » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 4:21 PM UTC

abracat1 wrote: post #30

It is easy and popular for westerners to romantacize Japan - but it has serious and structural problems. When analyzed on its own (instead of comparing it to the USA) it becomes readily apparent. I will just say a few observations which show that the picture the article paints is not quite accurate. Firstly, yes there are many people with fancy clothes. What the author does not say is that a lot of those people live…

> What the author does not say is that a lot of those people live with their parents - and their whole income is expendible. I don't know if this phenomeneon started after the bubble economy, but it is quite shocking.

In many cultures, it's customary, even expected to live with one's parents at least until marriage, and possibly longer. Extended families are an important social resource, and the American model of immediate familial alienation upon reaching age 18 followed by a detached nuclear family is in many ways weaker.

I won't argue with your other points, though at the very least, a forum like Hacker News should have skeptical attitudes about such ideas as "permanent employment".

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#35

Post by nandemo » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 4:29 PM UTC

abracat1 wrote: post #30

It is easy and popular for westerners to romantacize Japan - but it has serious and structural problems. When analyzed on its own (instead of comparing it to the USA) it becomes readily apparent. I will just say a few observations which show that the picture the article paints is not quite accurate. Firstly, yes there are many people with fancy clothes. What the author does not say is that a lot of those people live…

There's quite a bit of disinformation in your comment.

* that people live with their parents is only "shocking" if you happen to come from a country where that is considered taboo. In many countries it's not considered shameful to live with your parents while you're single. It didn't start after the bubble, it started like 1000 years ago. Yeah, there's a downside to it, but then there's also a downside to getting into debt in order to live by yourself.

* the percentage of car ownership is quite high. Just google it.

* "Japanese health care is a joke" compared to what? Look at life expectancy numbers, doctors per capita, etc.

* Internet banking has been around for years. ATMs are open 24/7 in convenience stores.

* etc

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#36

Post by microarchitect » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 4:48 PM UTC

bane wrote: post #28

mbesto wrote: post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

It reminds me of my first time visiting South Korea. While there I observed people who's job it was to wear a cute uniform and bow to cars entering the parking garage at the local department store, people hired by companies to stand in the aisles at the local supermarket holding packs of coffee or shampoo or whatever and dance to loud techno music (usually young women in short skirts and thigh high boots, bizarre to…

A general point to keep in mind here is that unemployment numbers are hard to compare. The best example is a country like India which has no social security net to speak of, so if you're unemployed and are not rich you will actually die of hunger. Which means that the unemployment rate is actually the percentage of people who can afford to stay unemployed. A less drastic comparison might be between unemployed people in Sweden and the US. I'd think that being unemployed in Sweden is lot better than being unemployed in the US because of the US's lack of a medical safety net.

Similar logic applies to your example of people doing "meaningless work". There are lots of those in India as well. I'm not going to judge whether these jobs are meaningless, but I'm pretty sure they produce a drastic improvement in quality of life for those who are employed in these jobs. Life as a greeter at a mall or a lift-operator is way better than life as a struggling farmer. And this doesn't even consider all the second-order benefits these people enjoy. Life in a big city means better education, more access to information, more opportunities, all of which almost certainly guarantee a much better life for their children.

This was a bit of a rambling post, but I guess the point I'm trying to make is that both comparing unemployment rates as well as comparing the types of employment on offer are too simplistic to make any useful judgments about an economy. I think some aggregate quality of life measure is what we really need to look at.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#37

Post by kitsune_ » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 5:01 PM UTC

abracat1 wrote: post #30

It is easy and popular for westerners to romantacize Japan - but it has serious and structural problems. When analyzed on its own (instead of comparing it to the USA) it becomes readily apparent. I will just say a few observations which show that the picture the article paints is not quite accurate. Firstly, yes there are many people with fancy clothes. What the author does not say is that a lot of those people live…

Some comments:

Dental care is not part of "universal health care" in many first world countries, including the one I'm coming from, Switzerland.

Countries with great public transport, such as Japan, should logically have lower car ownership rates than countries like the US of A. I don't have a driver's license.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#38

Post by gurkendoktor » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 5:12 PM UTC

mbesto wrote: post #18

kiba wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things" I suppose we could employ people to dig holes and pay them for the job of digging holes for no purpose. That's not productive or is a good use of their time, unless it is spent digging useful holes. That's because we have a million other things that people could do help and help out. All we need to do is figure out how to employ people. I ask why? What is the…

"Doing things" was mildly oversimplified. That's because we have a million other things that people could do help and help out. We do? Like what?

Cleaning up all that plastic crap that litters the planet, walking around in shady areas and watching out for each other. Basically all healthcare facilities I've seen were either understaffed or just barely above that, too.

I don't think we'd need to dig all those holes...

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#39

Post by DrCatbox » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 5:13 PM UTC

OstiaAntica wrote: post #31

DrCatbox wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Employment, I ask why? Seriously, full employment is a threat not a promise. Who wants to really work? For what? Mandatory vacations, 6 months per year, 5 hour work day. Then we can have full employment. As said in another comment, growth is required to spend more time with family, leisure and to do things that we really want. Well thats not the case, since no matter how much growth there is and how much an economy i…

You have fallen for the fallacy that there's a fixed amount of "work" in the economy. That's been disproven time and again, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy Rather, employment is a dynamic pie that can grow as more people add skills and put those skills to work.

Interesting fallacy.

However, you seldom hear anyone criticize work today, all the theories and economieswant people to work more. Why not work less? Why not work at all? How come that all the effeciency and growth still make people work? Isnt the mother of all invention necessity, to not do something mundane and boring while we could be playing and having sex or dancing.

Did humans always work since they began calling themselves human? 200 000 years ago, or any modern hunter gatherer society knew of work. Work is unnecessary for life. It is in fact harmful.

Just an idea to play with.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#40

Post by DrCatbox » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 5:21 PM UTC

mbesto wrote: post #23

DrCatbox wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Employment, I ask why? Seriously, full employment is a threat not a promise. Who wants to really work? For what? Mandatory vacations, 6 months per year, 5 hour work day. Then we can have full employment. As said in another comment, growth is required to spend more time with family, leisure and to do things that we really want. Well thats not the case, since no matter how much growth there is and how much an economy i…

We all have our reasons for working. In some cases I'd much rather be at work than say sit on a beach. I'd get bored after endless days of sitting on a beach right? I think this conversation could easily go into the "whats the meaning of life" topic, so let's try not to go there. My overall point is more so this, what's so evil/bad about the the so-called lost era in Japan? growth is required to spend more time with…

"I think this conversation could easily go into the "whats the meaning of life" topic, so let's try not to go there."

Yes, exactly. What we do with our time here is quite important to discuss, and this is usually the entrance to idologies and political parties. I wish we could talk about that more. Do you really want to work 30+ years of your life, then retire hopefully with a small amount of money (if its not "eaten" by the economy), while the top dogs do whatever they want whenever they want? It would be nice with a more balanced approach to work. Not work for work, but work for play. Free will and all that, work if you will, but I highly doubt most workers today would choose thier situation if they could.