The myth of Japan's failure • Hacker News Board

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#11

Post by kiba » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 2:19 PM UTC

mbesto wrote: post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things"

I suppose we could employ people to dig holes and pay them for the job of digging holes for no purpose. That's not productive or is a good use of their time, unless it is spent digging useful holes. That's because we have a million other things that people could do help and help out. All we need to do is figure out how to employ people.

I ask why? What is the end result of growth that makes societies "better"?

Less time spent on farming, manufacturing, servicing, and generally working. More time for leisure and family, increased well being, increased lifespan(more is always better), supposedly.

However, we're not good at figuring out what we want in life and thus not spend time on leisure, family, hobbies, and things that are fun. Instead, we seeks certain job because they're prestigious, buy things merely for status symbol effect, and so on.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#12

Post by kshatrea » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 2:19 PM UTC

mbesto wrote: post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

Just wanted to point one thing out: 1980-2012 = 32 years, not 22.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#13

Post by more_later » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 2:25 PM UTC

Yrlec wrote: post #5

tobylane wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have a uniquely high level of internal debtors, the government bonds were bought by Japanese people much more so than other citizens buying their countries' bonds. I didn't understand why this made a difference though.

Indeed. That helps them postponing the problems but it doesn't make the debt-levels any more sustainable. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-quUyId2WZ0

Japanese debt is Yen denominated and, if they want, they can extinguish it by printing money. This option is not available to Greece/Italy/Spain/Portugal/Ireland.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#14

Post by xlpz » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 2:28 PM UTC

mbesto wrote: post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

> What is the end result of growth that makes societies "better"?

The need for constant economic growth is just a side effect of how a capitalist economy works. That's why they all go into deep shit when growth slows down too much or stops. Nothing good or bad per so about it, in my opinion (although the improvement of productivity has obviously some positive effects).

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#15

Post by DrCatbox » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 2:36 PM UTC

mbesto wrote: post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

Employment, I ask why?

Seriously, full employment is a threat not a promise. Who wants to really work? For what?

Mandatory vacations, 6 months per year, 5 hour work day. Then we can have full employment.

As said in another comment, growth is required to spend more time with family, leisure and to do things that we really want. Well thats not the case, since no matter how much growth there is and how much an economy increases, leisure time, vacations and do what you want does not increase. Working more only produces growth so that a few people on this planet can do what they want, while all the others are still required to work more.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#16

Post by ppk » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 2:39 PM UTC

Yrlec wrote: post #2

One of the most important lessons that we have learned from the past years is that you cannot look at a country's standard of living in isolation. You also have to look at the debt levels to see if it is sustainable in the long run. Japan has the highest government debt-to-gdp ratio in the world: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_pub... (higher than Greece!). I suspect that they have a huge han…

I doubt it, take a look at this, http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=japan+public+debt change the time scale to 10 years, it looks pretty sustainable to me... It's close to the lowest it has been in 10 years.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#17

Post by daydream » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 2:40 PM UTC

more_later wrote: post #13

Yrlec wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. That helps them postponing the problems but it doesn't make the debt-levels any more sustainable. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-quUyId2WZ0

Japanese debt is Yen denominated and, if they want, they can extinguish it by printing money. This option is not available to Greece/Italy/Spain/Portugal/Ireland.

But by printing money they'd wipe out (or at least reduce) the real value of their peoples' savings - basically all those bonds the Japanese people bought. The consequences would be borne by their own people, not some foreign banks. This may be politically unpalatable.

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#18

Post by mbesto » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 2:42 PM UTC

kiba wrote: post #11

mbesto wrote: post #6

Let's look at one metric that supersedes all (in my opinion): According to, Japan's unemployment rate has been no higher than 6% over the last 32 years (1980-2012).It's currently at 4.5%[1] Compare that to the US, who's unemployment rate has been at worst 10% over the last 32 years (1980-2012). It's currently at 8.5%[2] Why does this supersede most other stats? Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things…

Because we simply need to keep people busy "doing things" I suppose we could employ people to dig holes and pay them for the job of digging holes for no purpose. That's not productive or is a good use of their time, unless it is spent digging useful holes. That's because we have a million other things that people could do help and help out. All we need to do is figure out how to employ people. I ask why? What is the…

"Doing things" was mildly oversimplified.

That's because we have a million other things that people could do help and help out.

We do? Like what?

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#19

Post by JamesNelson » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 2:48 PM UTC

heydenberk wrote: post #10

heydenberk wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do too -- if you find it, leave a comment here please!

Rather, here it is: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3389678

Both articles are actually by the same author. His blog is at http://www.fingleton.net/

Re: The myth of Japan's failure

#20

Post by Yrlec » Sun, Jan 08, 2012, 2:50 PM UTC

ppk wrote: post #16

Yrlec wrote: post #2

One of the most important lessons that we have learned from the past years is that you cannot look at a country's standard of living in isolation. You also have to look at the debt levels to see if it is sustainable in the long run. Japan has the highest government debt-to-gdp ratio in the world: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_by_pub... (higher than Greece!). I suspect that they have a huge han…

I doubt it, take a look at this, http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=japan+public+debt change the time scale to 10 years, it looks pretty sustainable to me... It's close to the lowest it has been in 10 years.

Wolfram Alpha displays the debt in your local currency (SEK to me). Which currency did it show to you?

Look at this video and tell me how that is sustainable: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-quUyId2WZ0#t=0m13s