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Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

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531–540 of 541 posts

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#531
post #208

I wonder if OpenAI will make more revenue than Minecraft over the next decade.

If and when they fine tune Dall-E and Chat GPT and find a suitable monetization scheme - absolutely.

> monetization scheme - absolutely

That's the thing! I'm not convinced it will become a big cash cow like Minecraft. Unless, of course, every mid to big sized company jumps on the GPT-train for support or whatever.

Then, there is another risk from the open-source side: Stable Diffusion and GPT-NeoX are quite impressive. With more funding/time, they could probably equal OpenAI.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#532

I wonder if OpenAI will make more revenue than Minecraft over the next decade.

I wonder if GPT models will have more impact than Minecraft over the next decade.

That's hard to quantify.

Maybe there is some recursion in the sense that OpenAI researchers played Minecraft 2010/2011 and that's how they got into computer science :)

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#533
post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't Stallman's "free" license dictate what you can and cannot do with the software?

No, the GNU licences place copyleft obligations on distribution/conveyance. But they allow you to run the programs for any purpose, without field of endeavour restrictions, or moral police. You don't even need to accept a licence to run a GNU program.

>place copyleft obligations on distribution/conveyance

Ok, so a major restriction on what you can do with the software.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#534
post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The absolute first line: > OpenAI’s mission is to ensure that artificial general intelligence (AGI)—by which we mean highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work—benefits all of humanity. is clearly not their first priority, and maybe never was. > to avoid enabling uses of AI or AGI that harm humanity or unduly concentrate power. > primary fiduciary duty is to humanity They're l…

> They're literally concentrating power into a multibillion company (MS) and are making MS their main financial priority They were arguably concentrating power by themselves and the charter had become complete BS well before this rumor had surfaced.

Fair

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#535
post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the GNU licences place copyleft obligations on distribution/conveyance. But they allow you to run the programs for any purpose, without field of endeavour restrictions, or moral police. You don't even need to accept a licence to run a GNU program.

>place copyleft obligations on distribution/conveyance Ok, so a major restriction on what you can do with the software.

I know that people have criticized copyleft for decades as being unfree in some sense, and I suppose citing either FSF's definition or those derived from it would be circular in the sense that they were all written by people who assumed that copyleft was acceptable.

But those definitions are clear that the "right to run the program for any purpose" must not be restricted by copyright licensing terms, and that copyright licensing "must not restrict anyone from making use of the program in a specific field of endeavor". Neither of those are infringed by restrictions on further distribution. (In fact, even freeware licenses that prohibited redistribution entirely could be compatible with this specific rule.)

You might say that it was surprising or hypocritical not to have a corresponding freedom related to redistribution, which would then preclude copyleft licensing. The BSD projects have tended to act as though they recognized this additional rule (that it's important to allow sublicensing and not to attach the same conditions to derived works, including allowing the possibility that end users of derived works will get fewer rights). But even in this case, nobody has suggested that it was "free" or "open" to directly limit the purposes for which end users could run a program.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#536
post #508

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a very good point about things like voice assistant, but I don't think your conclusion is right. We do have voice assistant technology and it's widespread and a lot of people use it daily. It's a wild scifi technology and I wish I could use it, but due to the interest of corporate profit it is not something that can be used without allowing a tech giant to harvest your identity and labor. When I finally bought…

> But most people do, in exchange for their privacy and the value of their labor I don't know. I'm not just talking about privacy -- voice assistants are hindered by compatibility problems between ecosystems, by limited functionality for most non-programming/engineering users, by a lack of common UX between assistants that makes them difficult to use, by a lack of reliability that blocks complex tasks, and by their g…

Very good points, thanks for sharing

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#537
post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Still, is there a world in which we look back 10 years from now and think that we were overvaluing the impact of AI? AI? Probably no. LLM-style AI? Yeah, I expect the tablet or blockchain story. A solution in search of a problem, with some very cool niche applications. In this case, Copilot.

Even with the models we have right now, if you built the right app on top of them, they'd be multi-billion dollar businesses that upset incumbents. Imagine an IDE where you make assertions about the generated code, and it takes those and does a random walk through the latent space until it finds a point that satisfies those assertions. Instead of editing the modified code, you debug by making more assertions or descr…

What you describe is it what the models can do today, but what they might be able to do with more work. It is possible conceptually now, but getting it to work on a product or MVP level - still risk there.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#538
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like the people who think ChatGPT is pointless, unusable, boring etc, don't really get it. If you need to know a hard fact, just Google it. GPT will tell you what to look for. For example, I needed to learn about Slack chatbots. I asked it what frameworks I should look into, then how to use a specific framework or API. "Write me some boilerplate code doing X in Y framework". It's gets you up and running in min…

You're saying, "if you need to know a hard fact, just Google it", but at the same time saying "I'm exploring and learning other programming languages at a crazy rate". Those are somewhat contradictory to me. Information about programming languages are hard facts. If it translates your code into another language how do you know it's using best practices? How do you know there aren't subtle bugs in its translation? Is…

A difference between ChatGPT and Google in this scenario is that Google cannot really synthesise or compose facts/knowledge together. These giga language models are decent at this, if anything they do it a bit too well/much, putting vaguely/somewhat but not quite right things together alot of the times. Which probably has some uses...

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is absolutely no one I know who uses a tablet as their primary work computer. No one. That analogy instantly breaks down because of this. As if everyone drives to work primarily using their trucks. The even more sad thing is that the iPad hardware is absolutely capable to be the primary computer for people. It's simply Apples refusal to allow a real OS to run on it that keeps holding it back.

Young people, the poor, many people in developing countries tend to all be mobile only. I don't have hard figures but i would estimate the number of people who do all their "computing" on a phone or tablet numbers in the billions.

Right. a phone/tablet is still better then nothing.

Re: Microsoft eyes $10B bet on ChatGPT

#540
post #436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI grant is another one. It's not actually a grant at all, they take ownership of your company. There's something about AI tech where it seems important to the owners that it comes across as open and philanthropic, even when it isn't.

The industry has a potent weaponization aspect/risk to it, that the tech overlords recognized a very long time ago. They also know how parts of the tech landscape (eg SV workers) responds to such things as AI being used for military purposes (or similar). So naturally the people in charge of big tech (including the financiers) have to try to lure that labor in to creating what they want, via misleading fakery. Thus i…

That sounds paranoid, but from what I see it is true.
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