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Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

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Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#401

Post by TexanFeller »

jollyllama wrote: post #186
saint_fiasco wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those other kinds of ICE vehicles are supported in poorer markets. In the Third World people use motorcycles and scooters and so on all the time, for all sorts of things. If lithium becomes scarce, electric vehicles become more expensive. An increase in the price of vehicles produces a similar effect to a decrease in people's incomes, so the market would push people towards smaller vehicles just like in the Third Wor…

UK and USA have some of the lowest rates of motorcycle usage in the world, they're part of the transportation solution in almost every other nation more than they are here. It's just never considered because the types of people working on policy in this area aren't motorcyclists.

Motorcycles are unavoidably far more dangerous than cars, that's the reason it's not seriously considered in nations that are rich enough to use cars. I used to ride. Had a major crash and got lucky. My relatives that rode lost organs. Several of our biker friends died or spent months in the hospital after their wrecks.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#402

Post by adrianN »

moonchrome wrote: post #399
adrianN wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

E-bikes have a top speed where crashes are rarely dangerous unless they involve a car.

>Overall, the report concludes that the main culprit in all bicycle (regular and electric) injuries was the rider’s own behavior (44 percent) — a steering error, for example — while 32 percent was road conditions. And the majority of these accidents affected only the rider. Two-thirds of the 110,000 traffic victims treated in Dutch hospitals last year were cyclists, VeiligheidNL says. The survey was conducted with ho…

Which part of your quote disputes that bike crashes at bike speeds are generally safer than motorcycle crashes at motorcycle speeds?

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#403

Post by jollyllama »

TexanFeller wrote: post #401
jollyllama wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UK and USA have some of the lowest rates of motorcycle usage in the world, they're part of the transportation solution in almost every other nation more than they are here. It's just never considered because the types of people working on policy in this area aren't motorcyclists.

Motorcycles are unavoidably far more dangerous than cars, that's the reason it's not seriously considered in nations that are rich enough to use cars. I used to ride. Had a major crash and got lucky. My relatives that rode lost organs. Several of our biker friends died or spent months in the hospital after their wrecks.

It would be interesting to see the ratio of deaths per 100 million miles driven in motorcycles vs all other motor vehicles across countries.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#404

Post by sershe »

bertil wrote: post #351
brundolf wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is wishful thinking. People's preferences aren't going to change overnight (I don't see a reason this one would change at all), and manufacturers are already making a tough sell with EVs themselves, so they'll cater extra hard to other familiar things people already want The only way I see this changing is regulation, and that would be political suicide for whoever pushed it in the US (the main place whe…

Put people on an e-bike and tell me how they react.

"I'm getting rained on from the front, either driving OR a long walk OR waiting for a bus are better". And I live in a city with no real winter

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#405

Post by moonchrome »

adrianN wrote: post #402
moonchrome wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Overall, the report concludes that the main culprit in all bicycle (regular and electric) injuries was the rider’s own behavior (44 percent) — a steering error, for example — while 32 percent was road conditions. And the majority of these accidents affected only the rider. Two-thirds of the 110,000 traffic victims treated in Dutch hospitals last year were cyclists, VeiligheidNL says. The survey was conducted with ho…

Which part of your quote disputes that bike crashes at bike speeds are generally safer than motorcycle crashes at motorcycle speeds?

How does that change the fact that biking is order of magnitude more dangerous compared to driving a car ?

It's like saying "cocaine isn't that bad, look at what heroin does to people".

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#406

Post by ldh0011 »

pjmlp wrote: post #136
ldh0011 wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it follows from the fact that most people drive (buy) cars in the US that they actually prefer it. Corporate lobbying and politics have ensured that you can't function in the vast majority of the US without a car. People in cities in Europe that support and/or prioritize bike/pedestrian traffic see many to most people preferring it. I went through childhood, uni, and the first year of my professional li…

People that live nearby city center prefer them, get a few more KM radius away and sunddenly cycling to city center is no longer so much fun.

80.7%: Percent of the US population living within urban areas https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/geography/guidance/g...

The fact that some US urban areas are less dense and more car dependent than most European urban areas is at least in part due to the reasons I mentioned already. Obviously people who live in rural areas will need and prefer cars but my point is that it is hard to say "Americans prefer cars" when most Americans have never had the opportunity to live somewhere where they don't need a car.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#407

Post by ldh0011 »

estebank wrote: post #301
galaxyLogic wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Going to a cabin in the mountains is a luxury few of us can afford. Even fewer of us can afford to buy such a cabin more likely you would rent it for a weekend or week. So if you're going to the mountains say twice a year we could assume that you also rent a car to get there, and back.

Even if they own a car, the aim is to reduce car ownership and drastically reduce car usage/need, not eliminate them entirely . There are 289MM cars in the US (.87 cars per person), in The Netherlands there are 8.7MM cars (0.5 cars per person).

People miss this so often when they respond to arguments to reduce car usage with "I need a car because of xyz reason" where that reason probably doesn't apply to most people, certainly doesn't apply to all people, or only applies to most people because whatever society they exist in (probably the US) is incredibly car-centric already. The Netherlands is clearly not car-centric but with 0.5 cars per person clearly people that need (or strongly want) cars still have them. Reducing car usage in the US can only have positive benefits for society imo.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#408

Post by ldh0011 »

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #381
bertil wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "never in a lifetime on average" crash That’s a strong argument against SUVs, a type of vehicle that is notoriously dangerous because drivers can’t see children in front of their hood. It also flips over and kills people inside at minor incidents. Cargo bikes don’t have those issues.

>flips over and kills people inside at minor incidents. >a strong argument against SUVs This kind of hubris to think you can plan the exact details of the market for a product followed up by cognitive dissonance when it doesn't work out drives me up the wall. The SUVs back in the day when they were becoming a thing had fine visibility, great even by modern standards. Then you people said they rolled over too much and…

Something tells me the intersection of the "you people" trying to reduce car dependence and the "you people" arguing to make cars bigger and heavier is not a large one.

Increasing car size (sometimes) increases safety for the driver at the expense of anyone in a smaller car or not in a car. Road deterioration also increases exponentially with vehicle weight so people that opt for no-car or smaller cars are effectively subsidizing the excessive vehicles of other people with their tax money. iirc a Hummer causes 21x more damage than an "average car."

https://www.gao.gov/products/109954

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#409

Post by timbit42 »

If we have a looming lithium shortage, instead of pushing EVs, we should be pushing PHEVs which use 1/10th the batteries and require 1/10th the energy and time to charge. Over 90% of most driver's daily use is less than 1/10th the range (40 km) of a typical EV (400 km) so a PHEV with 1/10th the battery means they will rarely need gasoline. For longer trips, you can use gas so there is no range anxiety.

One EV reduces one driver's gasoline usage by 100%. With the same amount of batteries we could build 10 PHEVs and reduce 10 drivers' gasoline by 90%. This is a 9 times greater reduction in gasoline usage than building EVs.

If we're really serious about lowering CO2, we should be pushing PHEVs, not EVs that we don't have enough batteries for.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#410

Post by munchler »

hedora wrote: post #378
bluedino wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This morning I would have had to bike in the dark, in a 35f rainstorm. Not going to happen.

I've done such things. It is surprisingly not bad if you spend ~$500 on fluorescent breathable rain gear and lights. The biggest problems are leaves on the stupid green paint they coat the bike lanes with, and increased stopping distance / driver fatigue for the cars. Storing the rain gear at your destination in a way that lets it dry out is also a big concern. Being cold is not an issue at all. If anything, you will…

Realistically speaking, what percent of the commuting population could do this on a daily basis? Many people have additional limitations that also need to be considered. E.g. Have to pick up the kids after work, have to shop after work, age/health constraints, etc.
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