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Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

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Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#61

Post by ojbyrne »

rythie wrote: post #49
Homunculiheaded wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually think the excel example demonstrates that we are unlikely to see that many more programmers in the future. As much as people use excel in their offices there is still the idea of the 'excel wizard' who really understands the functions and features of excel. It's actually quite surprising how many people I've encountered who use excel pretty frequently and still don't know many of it's basic features. The f…

I remember in 90s you were called a computer wizard if you how to type a document and print it. Expectations change.

However in the 80s I remember if you understood Wordperfect thoroughly (i.e. could do reveal codes and manipulate them) you were called a "secretary." Some form of dumbing down seemed to happen when the GUI came in.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#62

Post by geebee »

Nitramp wrote: post #23

Citation missing, but I've read a paper that claimed rather convincingly that you need a certain mindset both to be good at programming and to enjoy programming (unsurprisingly, this comes hand in hand). It's not really problem solving, it's rather a specific kind of structured thinking. It's the attention to detail and the will to think through every aspect of an issue, to find a complete solution. That's also a use…

I agree, it's both. I remember a donald knuth quote that about 2% of undergraduates have the mental quirks that make them good at programming. He didn't say "intelligence" or "talent", he said "quirks".

That wasn't just false modesty, there are a lot of factors that have to come together for someone to want to be a programmer, and some of them really do seem more like quirks than talents at times.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#63

Post by pyoung »

noduerme wrote: post #47

63% of Americans aged 18 to 24 couldn't find Iraq on a map after we'd been at war there for three years. So let's discount those people right away. The rest -- the other 37% -- have jobs and at least some kind of education. Most of them aren't interested in solving puzzles; they're interested in making money. That's what comes naturally to them. I'm a mid-level coder. I bill $100-$150/hr. freelance. I specialize in c…

"63% of Americans aged 18 to 24 couldn't find Iraq on a map after we'd been at war there for three years."

This is a little off topic, but this statistic is a bit disingenuous. The stat implies that Americans are dumb because they can't locate a country on a map, despite the fact that we are heavily engaged with that country. However knowledge of foreign policy and of geography are two different domains. A person could read an article a day about the Iraq war without ever looking at a map of the mid east.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#64

Post by BrokerChange »

jbester wrote: post #53
BrokerChange wrote: post #12

Farming became obsolete because of economies of scale. Factory work became obsolete because of economies of scale. Manufacturing became obsolete because of economies of scale. What do you think is our generation's economy of scale? I think the near future will involve making it possible for anyone, even those without a technical background, to quickly build beautiful internet products. What do you think is the next b…

Obsolete is a strong word. What happens in these industries is that they get split into the high-end (organic farming, small order manufacturing) and the mass-production low-end. Yes in many ways margin have fallen but overall production has gone up, way up. That being said - retail seems to be our generation's victim. In the last decade, we've replaced media consumables with digital equivalents. This alone has mostl…

I do agree that is a strong word. I guess what I was referring to was it's obselenece as a mass profession. I assumed that was implicit, wrongfully.

I was hoping to drive home the point that while coding is the "it" thing right now, eventually someone will build a framework that makes having a technical background moot (similar to the power YouTube has given to the home movie producer or music artist).

I think you may be right in regards to the retail prediction. Amazon is going to continue to absorb the majority of retail sales, especially as baby boomers (the highest spending demographic in history) completes the retirement cycle and diminishes disposable income in the market.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#66

Post by philwelch »

contextfree wrote: post #60

If programming (or CS concepts) were to become part of common literacy, that wouldn't necessarily mean programming qua profession would be the next mass profession. Writing is part of common literacy, but professional writers aren't a huge portion of the population. There are a lot more people who write in the course of their work in some other profession, though.

There are a lot of people who program in the course of their work in some other profession. Most engineers can hack some Matlab, at least. But the bar is much higher--most engineering professions are at least as intellectually challenging as programming.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#67

Post by pyoung »

crpatino wrote: post #39
zyb09 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

true, although the point I was making is that sooner or later fields like agriculture, energy, manufacturing, transportation, logistics and others will be completely automated and just require coders to operate. That leaves some other fields, but these are huge parts of the economy. That's not gonna happen tomorrow of course, but we'll gradually get towards is and coder demand is just increase steadily over time.

I do not think this is accurate either. Just because something is possible (and it is a big IF to say that it is possible to reach 100% automation, economy wide) does not mean that it will end up being that way. Consider, let's say, manufacturing. We have pretty much nailed down the details of how to automate a factory. Still, we do not see that the world manufacturing has been dominated by the most technologically a…

I can't dig up the link, but I recently stumbled across an article that highlighted a start up that was building a robot that would kill weeds (for agricultural purposes), replacing migrant workers.

I agree that not all workers will end up being programmers, but a shift towards automation is inevitable as routine human labor will eventually be too costly and inefficient, regardless of the location. China is already starting to show signs of rising labor costs due to an improving economy and a shortage of labor. I would bet against human labor in the long run, as counting on lax labor laws and a population of workers who are willing to tolerate abject poverty as a method for keeping production costs down seems like an unsustainable solution.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#68

Post by nradov »

Sure there is room for more people to become software developers, but let's not use the word 'profession'.

Quote from Steve McConnell:

——————————

According to legal precedents, a profession has:[1]

· A requirement for extensive learning and training

· A code of ethics imposing standards higher than those normally tolerated in the marketplace

· A disciplinary system for professionals who breach the code

· A primary emphasis on social responsibility over strictly individual gain, and a corresponding duty of its members to behave as members of a disciplined and honorable profession

· A prerequisite of a license prior to admission to practice

——————————

http://www.stevemcconnell.com/psd/06-novumorganum.htm

Software development in general hardly meets those qualifications. There are plenty of professional software developers, but software development is not a profession. This is a critical distinction, not just semantics.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#69

Post by mistercheese »

jashmenn wrote: post #45
stevecooperorg wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you: what we think of as 'pro' programming -- writing large programs in formal languages and running it past an interpreter/compiler -- is probably only something the few will really get into. However, there's a couple of exceptions to this idea I'm not sure how to handle. MS EXCEL : It's a programming experience, of a sort, and is incredibly popular. I think it uses similar skills to writing code, but i…

Yes exactly! There have been times in history (pre-printing-press) where most people couldn't even read. I'm sure there where many scribes who would look down their noses and say that the common man would never take the time to read for himself. Our society has grown to be incredibly complex. Imagine taking your great-great-great-great-great-grandfather and dropping him in modern times today and asking him to fill ou…

I was also about the use writing and reading as an example of knowledge that used to be limited to just specialized roles. While there are still professions that deal exclusively with writing exceptionally well, it's now part of our basic education. I think in a similar way, computer literacy could be just a matter of education.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#70

Post by crpatino »

pyoung wrote: post #67
crpatino wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do not think this is accurate either. Just because something is possible (and it is a big IF to say that it is possible to reach 100% automation, economy wide) does not mean that it will end up being that way. Consider, let's say, manufacturing. We have pretty much nailed down the details of how to automate a factory. Still, we do not see that the world manufacturing has been dominated by the most technologically a…

I can't dig up the link, but I recently stumbled across an article that highlighted a start up that was building a robot that would kill weeds (for agricultural purposes), replacing migrant workers. I agree that not all workers will end up being programmers, but a shift towards automation is inevitable as routine human labor will eventually be too costly and inefficient, regardless of the location. China is already s…

I am not saying it is not technically possible, but that it might not make financial sense long term. Nor I am saying that we should do without any automation (agriculture, by the way is already highly mechanized), I consider that there might be a sweet spot beyond which further development is not worth the hassle.
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