Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles? • Hacker News Board

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#351

Post by bertil » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 9:25 PM UTC

brundolf wrote: post #323

bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

I think this is wishful thinking. People's preferences aren't going to change overnight (I don't see a reason this one would change at all), and manufacturers are already making a tough sell with EVs themselves, so they'll cater extra hard to other familiar things people already want The only way I see this changing is regulation, and that would be political suicide for whoever pushed it in the US (the main place whe…

Put people on an e-bike and tell me how they react.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#352

Post by bertil » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 9:26 PM UTC

moonchrome wrote: post #306

bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

The electric bike people really need to shut up with the activism. Electric bikes are more unsafe than motorcycles ! This is irregardless of infrastructure (eg. I checked stats in Netherlands which is cyclist utopia according to HN). I used to ride a motorcycle but I would never actively encourage someone to start it - it's just irresponsibly risky. If you chose to do it regardless (like I did) that's your choice - b…

The unsafe part of an e-bike is the cars running people over.

I agree with you: we should get rid of that part.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#353

Post by bertil » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 9:27 PM UTC

roamerz wrote: post #211

bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

>electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. I think a vast majority of people in the United States that choose to drive cars, suvs and pickups would disagree your assumption.

I don’t think we should focus on 4% of the world.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#354

Post by bertil » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 9:28 PM UTC

pjmlp wrote: post #132

bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

Sure, if one likes to enjoy cold, snow and arrive wet at work during Winter, or sharing body odors during Summertime, also assuming healthy enough to stay on a bicycles or trikes. And yes I know plenty of people do endure weather conditions for their two wheel drive, most never will unless forced to do so.

I live in Umeå, Sweden. Most people here bike.

I’m not entirely sure what your point is.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#355

Post by bertil » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 9:29 PM UTC

option wrote: post #278

bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

No, cars plus planes are much more convenient for travel than bikes and trains. That is definitely not to say that there is no place for bikes and trains. US certainly needs more of both. But please stop pretending that a family of 4 can go anywhere on bikes in the weather. Or even going to the beach with all gear in perfect weather. Just not going to happen.

I can assure that anyone in a traffic jam disagrees with you–violently so.

More roads aren’t a solution.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#356

Post by bertil » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 9:30 PM UTC

fallingknife wrote: post #199

bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

> electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. If it doesn't ever get hot or cold where you live, or ever really rain, then yes. If an ebike works 90% of the time, then I'm getting the car. Might still get the bike, but I also have to have the car, and that will take just as much battery material as if I drive it 100% of the time.

I live in Umeå, Sweden.

It was -15ºC today. Most people I saw outside were on bicycles.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#357

Post by bertil » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 9:31 PM UTC

nsonha wrote: post #144

bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

> bicycles and trikes like the are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport in your opinion? Better in what way? Does everyone think like you? Between your and their assumption, I personally think theirs sounds more realistic, they just assume the norm continues to be the norm.

Thank you so much for your helpful contribution to a debate about how the world is changing its transport infrastructure.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#358

Post by bertil » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 9:32 PM UTC

tyho wrote: post #80

qudat wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That sounds intuitive to me but the fact that train tickets are so expensive on long distances (more than twice than if you travel alone in a car) makes me think it's not the case. Have you factored in all the costs associated with owning a vehicle (e.g. cost of purchase, maintenance, etc)?

Yep, train travel in the UK is more expensive than driving under any circumstances by at least a factor of two or three other than when commuting into London, where parking charges make the economics work.

You don’t include the health cost of pollution and the cost of accidents: healthcare and loss of life make driving far more expensive. That cost is not paid for by the drivers at the moment.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#359

Post by Tade0 » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 9:33 PM UTC

matsemann wrote: post #321

Tade0 wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why do you need a car because of family? Logistics. With a car the schedule is much more flexible and that is a major advantage when you have small children. Also with four or more people on board it's not really that terrible in terms of space efficiency. If you want to lower traffic/car ownership single-occupant vehicles are your low-hanging fruit, not families.

But could you imagine a future where you didn't need to bother with all that logistics? What if school, soccer practice and work were all in walkable or bikeable distance, for instance? I'm not advocating people to be forced to sell their cars, I'm advocating for moving towards a society not based around everyone having to drive everywhere.

> What if school, soccer practice and work were all in walkable or bikeable distance, for instance?

They are for me now and actually always have been.

I walk my child to daycare 1300 meters every weekday because I live in a somewhat walkable European city. I also work remotely but if I didn't I would probably commute by tram, because my stop is less than 250m away. Shopping is done via one of those delivery services that appeared during the pandemic. Alternatively I could go to the supermarket and farmers' market, both of which are within 500m of my apartment or just buy something in one of the corner stores that are even closer - I don't do that because contrary to what the Not Just Bikes guy says, daily shopping goes from quaint to annoying really quick when you have a family.

I also grew up in a commie superblock where I had a school, playground, culture centre, supermarket, pharmacy, dentist, library and even a clinic not only within walking distance, but reachable without going through a single zebra crossing because most of the parking spaces were in streets parallel to the main roads wrapping around the superblock.

With all that I still have a car, which I drive less than 7000km annually, because there are use cases where public transport just doesn't do it for me, namely: weekend trips to places which either have poor or non-existent public transport or visits to my extended family, from which I return too late to catch the direct line back home which functions only during the day.

If everyone followed my model of living we would have even less cars than countries advertising themselves as cycling-oriented like the Netherlands and Denmark, where people with families also generally have cars if they can afford it.

Cars are a massive convenience when you have unpredictable little humans to watch over.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#360

Post by TheCapeGreek » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 9:34 PM UTC

bertil wrote: post #348

dsfyu404ed wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>A cargo ebike is a game changer for all of this Not so long as a "never in a lifetime on average" crash remains an acceptable justification to spend tens of thousands of dollars it's not. And that's ignoring weather and convenience.

> "never in a lifetime on average" crash That’s a strong argument against SUVs, a type of vehicle that is notoriously dangerous because drivers can’t see children in front of their hood. It also flips over and kills people inside at minor incidents. Cargo bikes don’t have those issues.

It's an arms race - cargo bikes might not have those issues, but for one of those types of crashes I'd sure rather not be on a bike.