Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm • Hacker News Board

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#181

Post by shadowgovt » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 4:04 PM UTC

bsagdiyev wrote: post #167

usrusr wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> * when in full-auto on a single lane road, when there's an exit on the right the Tesla 3 almost always slightly swerve towards the exit before coming back in its lane. None of the Megane, the EQE or the BMW i4 do that. A minor nuisance. Unless you happen to be at the ready attentively double-checking whatever the assistance is doing - then it must be infuriatingly annoying! Guess what you're supposed to be doing, a…

That's the point of assistance, it shouldn't need double checking by a human every time. It should just work.

Unfortunately, Autopilot currently exists in the liminal space where it should just work... Unless it doesn't, in which case it's allowed to kick out with no margin of notice time and the driver is immediately responsible for what happens next.

It's entirely possible that is an unsafe-at-any-speed configuration.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#182

Post by theturtletalks » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 4:05 PM UTC

dougmany wrote: post #162

cainxinth wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Minimalistic interiors, modern infotainment, mobile app performance None of that is why Tesla was ahead of everyone for so long. It's because their cars have better range, and Tesla is still the range leader. They held four of the top six spots in 2022, and the number one is the Lucid Air (only 3k of them have actually been sold): https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/g32634624/ev-lo... Also, I just want to…

That article states > Although we haven't tested each of the longest-range models under our own EV highway range testing procedure, we've provided the data where possible. I don't think Tesla is as far ahead on range as everyone thinks. Highway miles are what matters and Tesla tends to be optimistic on their numbers. https://insideevs.com/reviews/443791/ev-range-test-results/

And isn’t that battery innovation and IP that Panasonic owns?

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#183

Post by elurg » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 4:05 PM UTC

_uhtu wrote: post #7

I'm not sure you can say that when the market cap is still 10x car companies that deliver orders of magnitude more cars than them. Even a high growth car company wouldn't justify that valuation. No, Tesla is still very overpriced for a car company based on hype.

Car companies deserve to have a severely depressed valuation because they're currently being forced to transition away from internal combustion. The ICE manufacturing industry is the worst one to be in because government are determined to kill you.

Tesla doesn't have this overhang and is also growing very fast.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#184

Post by DoughnutHole » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 4:05 PM UTC

pulse7 wrote: post #134

pjdemers wrote: post #88

Tesla, and even more Uber, were priced as if self driving cars are almost here. The idea that services like Uber without the drivers would make car ownership obsolete drove those valuations. Now that self driving cars are many decades away, instead of less than one decade away, is bring stock prices down. I always questions how fast we would see self driving cars, not because of the technology, but because of consume…

Every time I read something like "are many decades away" and "less than one decade away" I ask myself if we have a prophet here... Since nobody knows what will be discovered today and tomorrow nobody can make claims that "something is many decades away". And on the other side, nobody can make claims for "less than one decade away", because some lunatic with the atomic bomb can stop the progress of an almost finished…

Investment is nothing but a game of probabilities.

If it's true that self-driving is likely to be developed in the next 10 years than Tesla and Uber are good investments, because there's a reasonable chance of a world-changing, market-monopolising product making your investment incredibly profitable.

If self-driving is unlikely in the near-term then Tesla and Uber are not so attractive - you're looking at investing in an overvalued electric car manufacturer with limited production and a money-pit taxi operator, respectively. If a moon-shot innovation like self-driving is still likely in the next 25 years then on the other hand there's not a whole lot of reason to believe that these companies are the one's that will get to capitalise on it, rather than the established (cheaper) manufacturers or some new upstart. There are far safer investments out there.

All that's happened here is that people have lost faith that these companies are likely enough to develop a world-changing technology to justify their recent high stock prices.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#185

Post by Pet_Ant » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 4:05 PM UTC

mperham wrote: post #68

judge2020 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference seems to be that Tesla was 5-10 years ahead on everything: Minimalistic interiors, modern infotainment, mobile app performance, and of course they lead the way in making electric cars viable by showing that they can both look good and blast off in record time. But you're right that other automakers see Tesla as a threat and are catching up; for example, the range and charging curve improvements on mode…

They were 10 years ahead, 5 years ago. The market has realized that. It's also starting to creep into the mainstream consciousness that EVs aren't a good long-term solution to our poor transportation system.

The answers to our woes are joint transportation and housing infrastructure. However those are anathema to the American character. I don't see it happening.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#186

Post by bsagdiyev » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 4:05 PM UTC

wahnfrieden wrote: post #150

elisharobinson wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"carmaker" != "electric carmaker" , all other carmakers DO NOT make profitable EV's and require heavy subsidies to be in parity. Tesla has better margins because it is vertically integrated . Apple will NEVER make a car , cars require a totally different supply chain not as simple as moving a low mass objects like phones and PC's , ie cant move them multiple times across different continents. other car makers will ha…

isn't tesla heavily subsidized via carbon credits?

We don't talk about Bruno.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#187

Post by sumtechguy » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 4:06 PM UTC

davewritescode wrote: post #122

mavhc wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla's only competition is Chinese EV makers, everyone else can't make enough cars, and none of them are profitable. Tesla are 5-10 years ahead on profit, due to adopting cost savings such as no buttons, more miles per kwh, thus smaller batteries, casting most of the body in 2 or 3 pieces. And then there's in house software creation, vs everyone else. Software makes their use of their motors more efficient. That's b…

> And then there's in house software creation, vs everyone else. Software makes their use of their motors more efficient. You think automakers don't know about software? You do realize that what the ECU has to do to keep internal combustion engines running as efficiently as they do today is at least an order of magnitude more complex that electric motor management > That's before you have the problem with how to get…

You can listen to what the CEO's of the 'big 3' are saying. Tesla has vertically integrated. The big 3 spent the past 50 years doing the opposite. They use many of the same ODM/OEMs for things with small twists here and there. The companies that make those things for that supply chain are behind tesla. For creating a new market like tesla is in you probably want vertical integration again to iterate on it. It was one of the 2 key innovations Ford had early on (as they were not the first car company). But as years went on it made less sense to do that. Now it is making sense again to do it.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#188

Post by shadowgovt » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 4:06 PM UTC

l33tman wrote: post #108

tshaddox wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it really that simple? Is there something about Tesla’s technology that enables longer ranges? Surely they just put in bigger batteries and charge more for the car, and competitors could also do that if it was really a primary competitive advantage of Teslas.

Many of the competitors are STILL building on an ICE chassis and stuff batteries where the center axle would have been etc. When enough of them finally switch to pure EV platforms things will quickly improve I guess. But designing a new chassis that behave as well as their previous premium models, is not something they do in 1 year so it makes sense there is some delay.. The competitors also charge much less quickly,…

> The competitors also charge much less quickly

Counterintuitively, it can be cheaper timewise (and money-wise) to spec and build a new factory than to re-tool one that was custom-built to manufacture cars with a large set of core assumptions about power plant and drive train.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#189

Post by AlexandrB » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 4:07 PM UTC

mavhc wrote: post #51

fenrisbear wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure what the general consensus on Tesla in Norway. Sure, they are great cars during the summer, but during the winter they severely lack the robustness of the traditional car manufacturers. One of them being able to open the car door!

Use the app to unlock the door https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/model3/en_cn/GUID-F907200...

Love taking my gloves off to use an app in freezing weather.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#190

Post by elisharobinson » Thu, Jan 05, 2023, 4:07 PM UTC

jeffbee wrote: post #166

elisharobinson wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"carmaker" != "electric carmaker" , all other carmakers DO NOT make profitable EV's and require heavy subsidies to be in parity. Tesla has better margins because it is vertically integrated . Apple will NEVER make a car , cars require a totally different supply chain not as simple as moving a low mass objects like phones and PC's , ie cant move them multiple times across different continents. other car makers will ha…

Tesla earned 5.5 billion on 54 billion in sales in 2021. 1.5 billion of that was in air pollution credits Tesla sells to other carmakers, meaning they earned about a 8% margin on the car business. You could definitely argue that Tesla is only profitable because of government price supports.

they have grown production capacity yoy of >50% , 2021 was a heavy capex year. tesla makes > 30% margin on each car sold.