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Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

economist.com

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Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference seems to be that Tesla was 5-10 years ahead on everything: Minimalistic interiors, modern infotainment, mobile app performance, and of course they lead the way in making electric cars viable by showing that they can both look good and blast off in record time. But you're right that other automakers see Tesla as a threat and are catching up; for example, the range and charging curve improvements on mode…

The infotainment system on Teslas is worse than a Nissan Sentra with CarPlay/Android Auto

If it would just integrate with airplay (and whatever the Android equivalent is) then Tesla wouldn’t need to support a one-off application for every streaming service.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla are a battery pack manufacturer, they mostly use cells manufactured by Panasonic and CATL.

I thought the Gigafactories manufactured the batteries whose design they license from someone else that then get assembled into packs of various sizes. Are you saying the Gigafactories are not making batteries at all?

Tesla does manufacture their own battery cells, though they're having trouble scaling up.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/inside...

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#153
post #134

Tesla, and even more Uber, were priced as if self driving cars are almost here. The idea that services like Uber without the drivers would make car ownership obsolete drove those valuations. Now that self driving cars are many decades away, instead of less than one decade away, is bring stock prices down. I always questions how fast we would see self driving cars, not because of the technology, but because of consume…

Every time I read something like "are many decades away" and "less than one decade away" I ask myself if we have a prophet here... Since nobody knows what will be discovered today and tomorrow nobody can make claims that "something is many decades away". And on the other side, nobody can make claims for "less than one decade away", because some lunatic with the atomic bomb can stop the progress of an almost finished…

>We can only speak about "probabilities" here...

Yeah but this is colloquial speech, the probabilities are there just implicit because it would be exhausting to make this explicit in everyday speech.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some people like black overstuffed couches. Some people like Danish modern.

Of course some do. The point is the vast majority do NOT want the interior of a Tesla. They want everything in the same darn place that 99% of cars have it, with physical switches to be able to change things so you can just feel what you are doing without taking your eyes off the road. Most people see the interior of a Tesla as a complete gimmick.

I think a lot of car manufacturers have gone the path of no physical switches and it's becoming irritating. You shouldn't have to navigate screens to adjust your hvac while driving.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#155

Tesla, and even more Uber, were priced as if self driving cars are almost here. The idea that services like Uber without the drivers would make car ownership obsolete drove those valuations. Now that self driving cars are many decades away, instead of less than one decade away, is bring stock prices down. I always questions how fast we would see self driving cars, not because of the technology, but because of consume…

> The idea that services like Uber without the drivers would make car ownership obsolete drove those valuations. Did investors really believe that? I don't know a single person who believed that years ago when the pre-IPO valuations were going through the roof. I maybe knew a few people who believed it was possible one day but not anytime soon. It's wild to me that so called sophisticated investors really believed th…

Supposedly, in some places, transport planners, who really should've known better, made decisions about mass transit projects on the basis that self-driving cars were coming any day now. If _they_ got it so wrong, why would investors do any better?

There was a weird period a while back where basically everyone except people who actually worked in the area seemed to believe the self-driving car was nigh.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#156
post #2

... at least until interest rates go down again

I think this is really the answer. We've entered into a scary scenario for the US economy: it lives and dies on cheap credit supplied by the Fed. When the Fed drops rates, people chase yield and you get stuff like NFTs and valuations that are detached from fundamentals. When interest rates go up, the market just waits for them to go down again...

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#157

Tesla, and even more Uber, were priced as if self driving cars are almost here. The idea that services like Uber without the drivers would make car ownership obsolete drove those valuations. Now that self driving cars are many decades away, instead of less than one decade away, is bring stock prices down. I always questions how fast we would see self driving cars, not because of the technology, but because of consume…

> The idea that services like Uber without the drivers would make car ownership obsolete drove those valuations. Did investors really believe that? I don't know a single person who believed that years ago when the pre-IPO valuations were going through the roof. I maybe knew a few people who believed it was possible one day but not anytime soon. It's wild to me that so called sophisticated investors really believed th…

>Did investors really believe that?

They didn't. I don't know what OP is talking about. Uber's self-driving initiatives were always a moonshot.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#158
post #4

I have a Tesla and I also hold a short position on TSLA. My Tesla is a great car. The best car that I've ever driven but I'm not sure if it has anything that other car manufacturers can't replicate. I think Apple can make an even better car than Tesla if they build the hardware and software like their phones and computers. The idea that Autopilot has some magic sauce that nobody else can replicate is laughable.

> Apple can make an even better car than Tesla Paying a premium for Apple smartphones hardware and software is a thing, paying same percentage premium for a car is a lot different, it's a lot more money.

I cringe when I see statements like that. Apple has ZERO EXPERIENCE with automotive design, automotive manufacture, automotive distribution, automotive marketing, and automotive evolution. In other words, Apple KNOWS NOTHING ABOUT ANY ASPECT of the automotive industry.

Whether Apple can make a car better than Tesla is a moot point - Tesla isn't able to make cars as well as the other global automakers. Their whole schtick was the EV drivetrain. That's what set them apart from everybody else. It was never build quality. Now that governments around the world are essentially mandating EV's the global automakers are now entering the market. They have the know-how and experience in all the other areas of automotive manufacture that Tesla does not.

Bottom line: Tesla has had to come up-to-speed with the entirety of automotive manufacture and still aren't there. The global automotive manufacturers only have to come up to speed with an EV drivetrain, a drivetrain they've been experimenting with for years. Want to bet money on who's most likely to win the market?

Apple would be fools to enter this market and their investors should howl if they were foolish enough to do so.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla are a battery pack manufacturer, they mostly use cells manufactured by Panasonic and CATL.

I thought the Gigafactories manufactured the batteries whose design they license from someone else that then get assembled into packs of various sizes. Are you saying the Gigafactories are not making batteries at all?

Pretty sure the Gigafactory in NV has LG staff inside them making the Cells, or rather running the machines that makes the cells. While it is under one roof I think there are 2 businesses inside, one LG and 1 Telsa

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#160
Car companies tend to be priced (as investments) in one range. Some good, some bad.

Real estate companies, same thing.

Cab companies, you know the drill.

So being one of those, but with computers & the web, does not permanently lift you out of your lane. Tesla is a car company, WeWork is a real estate company, and Uber/Lyft are cab companies.

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