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Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

economist.com

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Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#101

Post by rootusrootus »

moojd wrote: post #56
Tempest1981 wrote: post #8

Why are Rivian and Lucid stocks also getting hammered? All 3 seem to move together. Feels more like EV stocks being dumped.

Maybe its incumbent automakers finally ramping up the competition and putting electric vehicles on the road. Telsa has probably been overvalued for a while and needed to come back to earth but between their R&D and massive lead in charging networks I still think they have a bright future. I think the R1T is the coolest truck on the market right now and the R1S is my most desired suv but now that all of the incumbents…

I think competition is the key. 2022 was the year that we started to really see the incumbents flex their muscle and prove that they could build just as good an EV as a dedicated EV manufacturer. Combine that with their proven ability to build cars profitably and it starts to make the future of the startup manufacturers look pretty bleak. It's an extremely competitive market with a huge barrier to entry.

My suspicion is that in the next 5 years or so, Rivian, Lucid, and similar startups will be defunct. I expect Tesla to persist long term, as their financials are decent now. Though I think their product strategy is very non-conventional and if consumers aren't convinced by it then it could be a stumbling block to their future success.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#102

Post by JumpCrisscross »

philipov wrote: post #89
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> selling tech to other companies By that measure, Apple and Google aren’t tech companies. (Apple sells devices to consumers. Google sells ads to companies.) They are. They just aren’t software companies.

Google isn't a tech company, it's an ad company. Apple is a tech company because they sell computers, which are information systems: Hardware counts. Chip manufacturers are also good examples of tech companies.

> Apple is a tech company because they sell computers, which are information systems

If we’re making that stretch, I fail to see how a modern car isn’t an information system as well.

What is and isn’t a tech company is context dependent. Economically, it describes a high gross margin business with negligible variable costs and vast scaling opportunity. By this definition, Tesla and Apple are not tech companies. The difference between them being Apple trades at 20x earnings while Tesla does 30+.

If you’re in the job market, on the other hand, this isn’t nearly as relevant as revenue per employee and thus pay per employee, together with culture and type of work. By those definitions, both Apple and Tesla are tech companies, albeit idiosyncratically in their own ways.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#105

Post by warinukraine »

anonporridge wrote: post #75

Absurd headline. It's still WAY too overpriced to conclude that investor consensus is that it's just a carmaker. Market cap has a long way to fall before that conclusion holds.

Exactly. Tesla stock price should be looked at in a log plot.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#106

Post by eatsyourtacos »

judge2020 wrote: post #19
msoad wrote: post #4

I have a Tesla and I also hold a short position on TSLA. My Tesla is a great car. The best car that I've ever driven but I'm not sure if it has anything that other car manufacturers can't replicate. I think Apple can make an even better car than Tesla if they build the hardware and software like their phones and computers. The idea that Autopilot has some magic sauce that nobody else can replicate is laughable.

The difference seems to be that Tesla was 5-10 years ahead on everything: Minimalistic interiors, modern infotainment, mobile app performance, and of course they lead the way in making electric cars viable by showing that they can both look good and blast off in record time. But you're right that other automakers see Tesla as a threat and are catching up; for example, the range and charging curve improvements on mode…

>Minimalistic interiors, modern infotainment, mobile app performance,

Which are all gimmicks.

The vast majority of people don't want that from a car. I've been in Telsas plenty of time and absolutely hate it. Yeah it looks cool for a moment, but I would never want that.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#107

Post by albertopv »

msoad wrote: post #4

I have a Tesla and I also hold a short position on TSLA. My Tesla is a great car. The best car that I've ever driven but I'm not sure if it has anything that other car manufacturers can't replicate. I think Apple can make an even better car than Tesla if they build the hardware and software like their phones and computers. The idea that Autopilot has some magic sauce that nobody else can replicate is laughable.

> Apple can make an even better car than Tesla

Paying a premium for Apple smartphones hardware and software is a thing, paying same percentage premium for a car is a lot different, it's a lot more money.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#108

Post by l33tman »

tshaddox wrote: post #79
cainxinth wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Minimalistic interiors, modern infotainment, mobile app performance None of that is why Tesla was ahead of everyone for so long. It's because their cars have better range, and Tesla is still the range leader. They held four of the top six spots in 2022, and the number one is the Lucid Air (only 3k of them have actually been sold): https://www.caranddriver.com/shopping-advice/g32634624/ev-lo... Also, I just want to…

Is it really that simple? Is there something about Tesla’s technology that enables longer ranges? Surely they just put in bigger batteries and charge more for the car, and competitors could also do that if it was really a primary competitive advantage of Teslas.

Many of the competitors are STILL building on an ICE chassis and stuff batteries where the center axle would have been etc. When enough of them finally switch to pure EV platforms things will quickly improve I guess. But designing a new chassis that behave as well as their previous premium models, is not something they do in 1 year so it makes sense there is some delay..

The competitors also charge much less quickly, so there's some optimization there that they lack. Like, on paper they can do 250 kW but you never get more than 100 when actually charging it etc

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#109

Post by aardvarkr »

dawnerd wrote: post #80

We’ve also been shown that Elon doesn’t know how to run a tech company. It’s been obvious before the Twitter takeover from all the half baked features that were shoehorned in and abandoned.

Oh no, Elon failed so hard at running tech companies that he accidentally built three of the most innovative companies of the last 20 years and became the worlds richest man… you can hate him all you want but don’t underestimate him. I hate that I have to be the voice of reason here since I really hate his god complex but I can at least respect what he’s built. That list includes X/PayPal, Tesla, and SpaceX. Don’t let your hatred blind you. He sucks but running innovative companies is his bread and butter. Twitter isn’t innovative though and I hope it crushes him.

Re: Investors conclude that Tesla is a carmaker, not a tech firm

#110

Post by scarface74 »

judge2020 wrote: post #19
msoad wrote: post #4

I have a Tesla and I also hold a short position on TSLA. My Tesla is a great car. The best car that I've ever driven but I'm not sure if it has anything that other car manufacturers can't replicate. I think Apple can make an even better car than Tesla if they build the hardware and software like their phones and computers. The idea that Autopilot has some magic sauce that nobody else can replicate is laughable.

The difference seems to be that Tesla was 5-10 years ahead on everything: Minimalistic interiors, modern infotainment, mobile app performance, and of course they lead the way in making electric cars viable by showing that they can both look good and blast off in record time. But you're right that other automakers see Tesla as a threat and are catching up; for example, the range and charging curve improvements on mode…

The infotainment system on Teslas is worse than a Nissan Sentra with CarPlay/Android Auto
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