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Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

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Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#81

Post by zppln »

munchler wrote: post #70
bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

Good luck selling that idea (in America, at least).

You'll have great trouble selling that idea in many parts of Europe as well.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#82

Post by pfdietz »

SigmundA wrote: post #61
dwheeler wrote: post #14

Even if we have more electric vehicles, that doesn't decarbonize anything unless the source of the energy doesn't generate carbon dioxide. In many places you're just moving the source of carbon dioxide (often with a total increase). I think that part is often overlooked.

No its not overlooked, its called wheel to well efficiency and EV's are more efficient than ICE even if run off fossil fuels at a power plant, which it won't completely since even the US has a renewable/carbon free mix of about 20% currently on the grid. Multi-stage heat recovery power plants are more efficient than even the best ICE engines in cars, there is no need to worry about space or weight so you can have ver…

In the US, even the power plants that run on fossil fuels tend to run on natural gas, which produces roughly half the CO2 of a coal fired plant.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#83

Post by SigmundA »

jacknews wrote: post #5

"It’s easy to imagine that decades from now, the chemistry of batteries will have changed so much that they will use two, three, or four times less than today." It's easy to imagine, but is it even possible? My understanding is that the lithium is the charge carrier, and while there is some room to improve efficiency, less lithium means less capacity. OTOH, it's quite possible that, eg, sodium batteries become viable…

See Lithium-Sulphur which has a theoretical limit of ~2500 wh/kg vs ~250 wh/kg of todays lithium batteries. So you're looking at up 10x improvement, if we can get to 1000 wh/kg that's your 4x.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium–sulfur_battery

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#84

Post by logifail »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #59
bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

Related, recent Electrek video discussing the next moves for countries that have phased out ICE for EV, such as Norway: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0F6Bz-0EKA0

> the next moves for countries that have phased out ICE for EV, such as Norway

"Phasing", perhaps. "Phased", not yet...

Approximately 19% of passenger cars in use in Norway are (pure) EV, with 7% plug-in hybrid and 5% conventional hybrid. That leaves 40% diesel and 30% petrol.[0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_N...

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#85

Post by rootusrootus »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #59
bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

Related, recent Electrek video discussing the next moves for countries that have phased out ICE for EV, such as Norway: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0F6Bz-0EKA0

Norway has the luxury of exporting pollution the rest of the planet as a means of financing their pivot to green technology at home. Not every country can do that.

Taken in isolation, it's an interesting case study in EVs, but I'd be careful about extrapolating too much.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#86

Post by jgilias »

bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

In theory.

In practice the market has spoken as to what kind of a form-factor people find the most useful for personal transportation in different climates and economic development scenarios. There’s no reason why ICEs couldn’t have supported the kind of vehicles some people imagine other people need.

The market has spoken, EVs only started gaining traction when they started resembling actual cars in form and function. Think of it as parallel evolution. Dolphins and fish.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#87

Post by matsemann »

rootusrootus wrote: post #69
matsemann wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An EV is much heavier, thus you need more energy to move it. But I think in total it should still be a net win for EVs. But the real problem is that we move 2000+ kgs around to move a human of 80 kgs around. EVs don't fix that. EVs are mostly to save the car industry, the solution is to drive less by creating a society where people don't need to own a car and drive everywhere.

> An EV is much heavier The most popular EVs in the US are roughly 0-10% heavier than the comparable ICEV. Yes, some EVs are much heavier.

US already have insanely big cars, though. So very different than in other markets.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#88

Post by JumpCrisscross »

rootusrootus wrote: post #78
munchler wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good luck selling that idea (in America, at least).

There isn't any reason people in America couldn't choose such things. They just don't. If the selling of the idea is failing, maybe the idea is the problem and not the people you're selling it to.

> isn't any reason people in America couldn't choose such things

I mean, sure. I don’t want to. I lived without a car in New York and it was great. I live with a car in a low-density area and it’s also great. There should be a carbon tax, but that’s a fancy way of saying some people get cars and some don’t.

(Specifically: I don’t want to walk or bike when it’s -20° F. I don’t want to load up my skis every time on a bus, I literally can’t with a snowmobile, and I enjoy doing those things.)

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#89

Post by DLwdTxdU6smHQA »

imachine1980_ wrote: post #23
snarfy wrote: post #8

Sodium ion batteries work just as well and should be arriving this year [1]. [1] - https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinas-top-ev-battery-mak...

Sodium ion batteries are less dense than lithium have a third of the range, I'm live in argentine and see the destruction of open mining for rare metals for cents, make me wish this happens, but for now dense electric cars of not low range will probably use lithium and smartphones and notebook probably will continue to use lithium for long time, maybe be replaced by graphen but in the long game.

> Sodium ion batteries are less dense than lithium have a third of the range

Got a source for the "one third" part? According to [1] and [2] lithium ion is up to 265 Wh/kg and sodium ion has 160 Wh/kg.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery [2] https://cleantechnica.com/2021/07/30/catl-reveals-sodium-ion...

edited for clarity

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#90

Post by SigmundA »

pfdietz wrote: post #82
SigmundA wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No its not overlooked, its called wheel to well efficiency and EV's are more efficient than ICE even if run off fossil fuels at a power plant, which it won't completely since even the US has a renewable/carbon free mix of about 20% currently on the grid. Multi-stage heat recovery power plants are more efficient than even the best ICE engines in cars, there is no need to worry about space or weight so you can have ver…

In the US, even the power plants that run on fossil fuels tend to run on natural gas, which produces roughly half the CO2 of a coal fired plant.

True and we have a lot of natural gas and in a pinch we can run our vehicles off coal if needed even if not ideal. The flexibility of the power source due to decoupling seems so often overlooked especially when thinking about energy independence and protecting national interest.
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