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Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

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Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#61

Post by SigmundA »

dwheeler wrote: post #14

Even if we have more electric vehicles, that doesn't decarbonize anything unless the source of the energy doesn't generate carbon dioxide. In many places you're just moving the source of carbon dioxide (often with a total increase). I think that part is often overlooked.

No its not overlooked, its called wheel to well efficiency and EV's are more efficient than ICE even if run off fossil fuels at a power plant, which it won't completely since even the US has a renewable/carbon free mix of about 20% currently on the grid.

Multi-stage heat recovery power plants are more efficient than even the best ICE engines in cars, there is no need to worry about space or weight so you can have very complicated heat recovery and emissions gear maintained by dedicated staff rather than being in my vehicle.

Power plants can run off less refined or even unrefined fuel, the efficiency of refining is often overlooked along with physically shipping refined fuel to fueling stations.

Finally it decouples the power source from the vehicle. Even if it where no more efficient to run EV's off fossil fuels burned at power plants, your vehicle can get upgraded to run off solar or nuclear or wind or whatever in the future while you get to keep the same vehicle. Any programmer should recognize the value of separating concerns for easier migration.

Where I am we have a garbage incinerator power plant with an elaborated scrubber system, EV around here are technically running partially off garbage. This is not carbon free by any means, but effective at reducing landfill use and getting power out of it.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#62

Post by JumpCrisscross »

samwillis wrote: post #31

Something that I think needs to be considered more is the now dominant thought that Electric Vehicles = Lithium BEVs. We should not be putting all eggs in that one basket. Obviously they are the most widely developed, and hydrogen fuel cell technology isn't anywhere near the point where it is ready. But we shouldn't stop developing it. Then there's the fascinating "aluminium air" battery [0] concept which could work…

> the now dominant thought that Electric Vehicles = Lithium BEVs

In popular media, perhaps. Research, including industrial R&D, continued on other fronts.

That said, the periodic table seems to limit us to hydrogen, lithium, sodium and perhaps potassium. Life chose hydrogen (with carbon). We’re transitioning from hydrocarbons to lithium (with carbon; some are trying silicon). Sodium is close to being a viable contender, but it’s heavier than lithium, which barring a chemistry breakthrough will relegate it below lithium.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#63

Post by saiya-jin »

LatteLazy wrote: post #9

One of the core problems with environmentalists, intelligent people and anyone left wing really is that we insist on doing nothing until we have a perfect solution. Instead of trading climate change for a lithium shortage, we will fail to push these cars because there might be some imperfection for someone somewhere someday. And a massive serious issue is better than a tiny possible future issue we didn't foresee . H…

Its pointless to make everything a political topic, with you being the righteous one and everybody else wrong (or worse). Ie am neither on any scale, agree with some aspects of each and reject some other stuff, its easier not being in US where society seems extremely polarized and the other group is always to blame for all one's misfortunes.

EVs generally currently don't make that much sense, we just fuck up environment in a different way. Maybe you don't see those open pit mines in 3rd world, child slaving for that cobalt in your batteries but I do and I do mind. This isn't some potential issue in far future, but right here right now. Any tesla is running a bit on child labor, now everybody can please get off their high horses for a while? EVs being charged by electricity from coal power plants - sure its transitory, so lets start having a discussion when its about to stop being so.

What is an actual solution is very good and cheap public transport. Some less smart part of population in less developed places like US get knee jerk reaction to even suggesting it, but simple fact is - as long as everybody will want to drive in their own ever more massive block of metal and chemistry, we will have numerous issues and will keep shooting ourselves in our own feet long term. No EV is going to fix that, not this century.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#64

Post by rootusrootus »

dwheeler wrote: post #14

Even if we have more electric vehicles, that doesn't decarbonize anything unless the source of the energy doesn't generate carbon dioxide. In many places you're just moving the source of carbon dioxide (often with a total increase). I think that part is often overlooked.

> I think that part is often overlooked.

On the contrary, it is one of the most popular bad faith arguments against EVs.

Fortunately, science has long since come to the rescue. In the dirtiest coal-burning power generating region of the US, an EV is still ~20% less polluting than a car that burns gasoline directly. That is your worst case. Most US power generation is far cleaner.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#65

Post by kuschku »

trabant00 wrote: post #29
bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

> Using three tons vehicles for long-distance journeys or for the transport of goods isn’t efficient: trains (and last-mile delivery on cargo bikes) are a lot more economical That sounds intuitive to me but the fact that train tickets are so expensive on long distances (more than twice than if you travel alone in a car) makes me think it's not the case.

Train tickets include track maintenace, but if you travel by car, you usually don't include road maintenance, car purchase, etc in the travel price (as they're often hidden and include many subsidies and tax breaks).

Additionally, a train always costs the same amount to run, no matter the number of passengers, so in countries where trains don't see much use (like the US), they'll be much more expensive than they should be.

If you look at how DB sells the vast majority of their tickets (Sparpreis and Super Sparpreis) in the 9,90 / 14,90 to 49,90 price range (including for 1000km long distance journeys), train travel can be relatively affordable (but obviously still more expensive than car travel if you travel short journeys, fill the car with 7 adults and don't include the road maintenance paid for by regular taxes)

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#66

Post by jstummbillig »

samwillis wrote: post #31

Something that I think needs to be considered more is the now dominant thought that Electric Vehicles = Lithium BEVs. We should not be putting all eggs in that one basket. Obviously they are the most widely developed, and hydrogen fuel cell technology isn't anywhere near the point where it is ready. But we shouldn't stop developing it. Then there's the fascinating "aluminium air" battery [0] concept which could work…

I don't think anyone is stopping anything, really. It's just functions doing work: If one thing get's easier and cheaper and safer and is building a track record, all at the same time and without signs of stopping or running into any obvious issues, we are increasingly less incentivized to think up alternatives. I don't think that's unreasonable. In the end, the issue is mostly a very, very small number of people in all of existence, who are capable of meaningfully developing new technologies (and always at the cost of not advancing something else, because they would all be capable of working on something else).

We have been good about increasing the number of capable people, so it will not be one or the other, but even so, right now, it's harder to imagine a world with an abundance of top engineers making new technologies actually possible, than it is to imagine new techologies.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#67

Post by cm2187 »

matsemann wrote: post #36
dumbfounder wrote: post #30

Can batteries be created to make the process of reclaiming the lithium orders of magnitude easier? A completely different topic: Politics tends to focus on forcing consumer vehicles to go electric, is this really the right move? Most cars are not driven a lot in a day. But cars that are used for work (fleet, uber/deliveries) are used much more, so the benefit to them being electric is far greater. Trucks too most lik…

Most people shouldn't need to own a car. I don't mean that in a "self driving will save us" way. But that a personal car is parked 95% of the day. In a city huge areas are used for storing these blocks of metal not in use. More accessible car sharing could make less people feel the need to own a car.

Self driving cars can park themselves far away, clearing the streets for traffic. For commutting, people need to own the car for the same reason farmers own their equipment: they all need it at the same time so it isn't economical to rent it.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#68

Post by pfdietz »

JKCalhoun wrote: post #48
Gwypaas wrote: post #32

Always liked the USGS take on mineral reserves. > Reserves data are dynamic. They may be reduced as ore is mined and (or) the feasibility of extraction diminishes, or more commonly, they may continue to increase as additional deposits (known or recently discovered) are developed, or currently exploited deposits are more thoroughly explored and (or) new technology or economic variables improve their economic feasibili…

I'm reminded of the Hunt brothers attempt to corner the silver market in 1980 [1]. > But as the high prices persisted, new silver began to come out of the woodwork. > “In the U.S., people rifled their dresser drawers and sofa cushions to find dimes and quarters with silver content and had them melted down,” says Pirrong, from the University of Houston. “Silver is a classic part of a bride’s trousseau in India, and wh…

There's a geothermal well near the Salton Sea in California where the scale that builds up in the pipes is high grade silver ore. The wells there are also being targeted as lithium sources. I've wondered if storage of heat in underground rocks (a cheap form of long term energy storage) could be combined with drilling into promising formations to extract traces of useful elements.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#69

Post by rootusrootus »

matsemann wrote: post #46
YPCrumble wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find it hard to believe that pulling electricity from the grid would increase carbon emissions vs. a vehicle burning gas in its own engine. How is that possible?

An EV is much heavier, thus you need more energy to move it. But I think in total it should still be a net win for EVs. But the real problem is that we move 2000+ kgs around to move a human of 80 kgs around. EVs don't fix that. EVs are mostly to save the car industry, the solution is to drive less by creating a society where people don't need to own a car and drive everywhere.

> An EV is much heavier

The most popular EVs in the US are roughly 0-10% heavier than the comparable ICEV. Yes, some EVs are much heavier.

Re: Does the world have enough lithium to move to electric vehicles?

#70

Post by munchler »

bertil wrote: post #10

This article and the IEA sources that they rely on assumes that an EV is a car. That’s not a good assumption: electric bicycles and trikes like the Aptera are much better direction for the vast majority of individual transport. At that size, you can rely on smaller batteries and solar panels for many journeys (it isn’t fully sufficient for an Aptera but an e-bicycle with a small roof can ride as long as the Sun shine…

Good luck selling that idea (in America, at least).
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