251–260 of 281 posts
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As the saying goes, economists have predicted 8 of the last 3 recessions.
...And Nouriel Roubini is famous for predicting 8000000000*10^(uncountable infinity) of the last 3 recessions.
When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.
Cool. Go long heavily leveraged and repost this thread next year to really show off. :)
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I look at recessions as being analogous with a bodybuilding cut cycle. You go through a bulking cycle to build muscle and to do so you consume a calorie surplus. Because it's difficult to tailor your macros precisely, you most likely put on a bit of fat at the same time. So after a period of bulking you undertake a cut cycle, where you burn off all the fat you don't want. In economic terms, in the bulk cycle there's…
Cringe
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The Economist remains uncompromised in my view. Maybe out of touch though. Another reason for more vigourous debate. I still think all these troubles are just engineering problems to be solved. I relish the task.
I think most honest economists would tell you that economists have never been very good at predicting the future. They can do a pretty good job of explaining the why of the past and how markets work, but there are too many factors, either known or unknown that always come into play. But people really want predictions, which is why you get headlines like this one.
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You won't find houses for $100k unless they are in poor condition or a bad location. That is roughly the price you would expect to pay for an average condominium in Germany.
Yeah, that's what I mean - not what houses are selling for, but what people are looking for/able to buy. Median income in the US is somewhere around 40k-70k/year depending on the source, and the general recommendation is not to exceed 2.5x that for the price of a home - so around 100k-175k.
When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.
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I knows that’s a theory, but I haven’t see any more evidence that inflation is due to monetary policy than I have that it is due to Ukraine. Lots of philosophical arguments that it must be , but no evidence. Correlation, causation, all of that. Have you seen evidence of causality that goes beyond theory? (I’m not necessarily disagreeing, just saying it often seems like a faith-based view)
It's like the apple which falls from the tree, gravity and all that... Seriously, the effect of money supply on prices has been established for quite some time, with historical data to back it up.
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It's like the apple which falls from the tree, gravity and all that... Seriously, the effect of money supply on prices has been established for quite some time, with historical data to back it up.
Do you think that the global economy has the same dynamics today that national economies did 200 years ago?
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China supplying Russia with weapons is probably not going to happen. Not if they want to do any commerce with the US, UK and Australia, NZ and probably the EU. The Chinese, including chairman Xi are anything but stupid. They want cheap Russian resources and food, they want to buy and replicate some Soviet tech, so they are playing Russia with the cooperation card. The Chinese also have big investments in Ukraine's ag…
I mean, aren't they still currently engaged in the genocide of the Uyghurs? Forcing them into work camps, breaking their spiritual freedoms, and relocating communities to forcibly dilute their unique genetic makeup? And the West did what? China is building bases around the South China Sea, pushing borders back, commandeering fishing rights, making a claim on Taiwan and their territories, and pushing very close to US…
Look at the Kurds, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Iran, Korea, Vietnam, Yemen, Palestine, Egypt, Pakistan, Central America, South America, Africa. Look at the IMF. People like Fred Hampton, MLK, murdered by the West.
> If you ever want to imagine the end of the world, imagine what happens if we can't buy cheap shit from China and follow the thread through to a conclusion.
The west should stop exploiting all the poorer countries. Capitalism sucks. If the west can’t live without exploiting other people, the west doesn’t deserve comfy lives.