Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

221–230 of 281 posts

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#221

Post by petre »

oliwarner wrote: post #220
petre wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China supplying Russia with weapons is probably not going to happen. Not if they want to do any commerce with the US, UK and Australia, NZ and probably the EU. The Chinese, including chairman Xi are anything but stupid. They want cheap Russian resources and food, they want to buy and replicate some Soviet tech, so they are playing Russia with the cooperation card. The Chinese also have big investments in Ukraine's ag…

I mean, aren't they still currently engaged in the genocide of the Uyghurs? Forcing them into work camps, breaking their spiritual freedoms, and relocating communities to forcibly dilute their unique genetic makeup? And the West did what? China is building bases around the South China Sea, pushing borders back, commandeering fishing rights, making a claim on Taiwan and their territories, and pushing very close to US…

The West won't do much, unless it's in their interest.

The latest developments already complicated the getting cheap shit from China part.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#222

Post by dragonwriter »

opportune wrote: post #124
jmartrican wrote: post #29

When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.

I am pretty into investing and for the past two years have been doing it almost solely on the basis of macro principles. Inflation in the last 6 months in the US, as measured by the Fed’s CPI, has been about 2%. All the higher inflation headlines are simply comparing the CPI 12 months ago to today, but the fact of the matter is ever since June/July CPI’s annualized inflation is already at roughly 4% or lower. The Fed…

> Inflation in the last 6 months in the US, as measured by the Fed’s CPI

There is no such thing as “the Fed’s CPI”.

BLS publishes the CPI, which the Fed does not use.

The Fed uses the PCE, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#223

Post by sokoloff »

californical wrote: post #218
sokoloff wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Then everyone - the sellers, the agents, even the bank - push you to borrow the max allowed and spend it. Of course those groups urge you to spend the maximum: they're all being compensated if you do exactly that. At the end of the day, it's still you who is signing the contracts, responsible for how you spend your money, and has to live with the outcome of your decisions.

Sure, personal responsibility still matters in an individual level… but that’s irrelevant to the point you’re replying to! I’m not sure of your point. If those groups can convince a decent percent of people to spend the max that they can get away with, it doesn’t matter what you do personally. Prices will inflate because most others are still spending big.

It most certainly matters what you do personally. What that might mean in consequence is that you decide to buy a cheaper house than you could maximally afford, put a greater percent down, or you might delay buying a house for a while.

The differences among households' incomes are already higher than the reasonable ratio between the max approvable to borrow and the sensible amount to borrow. (A household making $300K can already sensibly borrow more than one making $100K can be approved for and one making $100K can sensibly borrow more than someone making $30K can be approved for.)

Households are still competing with others to buy individual properties, of course. That competition doesn't mean that you should YOLO it with the largest purchase most people will ever make just because others are willing to do so.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#224

Post by gruez »

dragonwriter wrote: post #154
gruez wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>For example, we could add a hefty tax on any home that isn't owner-occupied. But why are home prices going up? Is it because non occupying buyers are bidding with each other to drive up prices beyond what is rational? If so, banning those buyers might indeed bring prices down to a saner level. However, if prices are high as a result of supply and demand (ie. more people want to live in desirable places and we can't…

> However, if prices are high as a result of supply and demand (ie. more people want to live in desirable places and we can’t build more homes to accommodate), then banning non occupying buyers won’t do much. Non-occupying owners are a factor in supply and demand; banning them (or even just increasing costs on them, e.g., via taxes on long-term vacant units) reduces the number of prospective non-occupying owners buyi…

>Non-occupying owners are a factor in supply and demand; banning them (or even just increasing costs on them, e.g., via taxes on long-term vacant units) reduces the number of prospective non-occupying owners buying and causes existing ones to sell.

The problem with this analysis is that it ignores that homes owned by non-occupying owners (ie. landlord) are still occupied by somebody, and is therefore suppressing demand for buying houses. Or put another way, if you got a landlord to sell a home, there would be one more home on the market, but at the same time whoever was previously renting that home will get kicked out and will also need a home, so the net effect on supply/demand is zero.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#225

Post by EasyTiger_ »

jmartrican wrote: post #29

When I see predictions like this I think "awesome, no global recession coming in 2023". I have not done a study on this, but it seems like every prediction I come across is just wrong. Its like when I watch Artosis or Tasteless give a prediction during an SC2 tournament and immediately be wrong. "caster's curse" i think its called.

I’ve been reading since 2016 that there’s about to be a recession. The conclusion I’ve reached is some people REALLY want one.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#226

Post by yucky »

dchristian wrote: post #216
yucky wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You are ignoring the reality many are facing, where essentially all the available options are above their means. Again, this just simply isn't true. Go to Zillow, and set your filter to houses under say $150k and check the metro areas of Kansas City, St Louis, Dallas, Little Rock, Memphis, Cleveland, Charlotte, Detroit, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Cincy, etc. etc. and you will get hundreds of hits in every one of those…

The bottom end of the housing market is usually junk or otherwise tied up legally. Just because you get hits, doesn't mean that's a viable option. I just did a housing search recently and found this out the hard way. Look at the median for an area and then figure that you can go 10-20% below that for a "fixer upper". Even that isn't an option if you don't have DIY skills.

See above, and try it yourself. On a $150k house a first time buyer can use FHA to put 3% down, and if FHA approved the sale then by definition it is not a fixer upper.

That means a first time buyer can get into a $150k house with FHA for $4,500 down and $1,300/month (which includes property tax and home insurance).

This means someone making $25/hour can afford to buy one of these homes, right now, today.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#227

Post by opportune »

dragonwriter wrote: post #222
opportune wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am pretty into investing and for the past two years have been doing it almost solely on the basis of macro principles. Inflation in the last 6 months in the US, as measured by the Fed’s CPI, has been about 2%. All the higher inflation headlines are simply comparing the CPI 12 months ago to today, but the fact of the matter is ever since June/July CPI’s annualized inflation is already at roughly 4% or lower. The Fed…

> Inflation in the last 6 months in the US, as measured by the Fed’s CPI There is no such thing as “the Fed’s CPI”. BLS publishes the CPI, which the Fed does not use. The Fed uses the PCE, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The BLS publishes it, but the Fed looks at it and hosts it on their site in a digestible format: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#228

Post by naijaboiler »

BirAdam wrote: post #141
zuminator wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"At some point" does a lot of heavy lifting. Without any information to quantify when this breaking point might occur, one might as well be talking about the heat death of the universe. And what do you mean by "sacrifice the wealth of future generations for the sake of the current"? The government issues bonds to pay for stuff. Then at some point :) the bonds presumably become due, and future generations have to pay…

Yeah, I’ve thought an economic calamity was likely for over 20 years. As I stated, the math is there but the timing is always unknown. We’re talking about the actions of billions of human beings, and therefore it’s difficult to predict with certainty. What can be said definitively is that the debt service of the US federal government will exceed the current defense budget by 2025. Things are getting closer and closer…

You know nothing about economics

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#229

Post by imtringued »

paradox242 wrote: post #135
adam_arthur wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s fair to be skeptical of economic predictions, as yes, most end up being wrong. But in this case the Fed is quite clearly aiming to orchestrate a spike in the unemployment rate, and pretty much all of history is pointing towards the current macro setup ending with recession. By and large people tend to be overly optimistic that this time is different re economic cycles and monetary policy. E.g. Wall Street analys…

Economics as a "science" is when psychology majors cosplay as mathematicians. They demonstrate all of the trappings of a science; specialist jargon, mathematical notation, journals, conferences, but have scant little to show for it. They will be the first to tell you that the economic system is too complex for any one of them to understand, and point at "markers" to which they attach a level of causal significance th…

The economy is like a feral dog. People put too much trust in the people holding the leash. They can hold the dog down but they can't make it walk.

The goal is to motivate it but also to prevent it from running away.

Re: Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

#230

Post by AnimalMuppet »

hdjjhhvvhga wrote: post #213
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, high-up Russian politicians have been talking about invading Finland or Poland or both. And if the GP says that they don't have the military strength to pull that off, well, they don't. But they don't have the military strength to defeat Ukraine, and yet the fighting goes on, in complete defiance of sanity. No, Russia can't (successfully) invade either place. That doesn't mean he won't try. If I were Finland or…

The reason the war in Ukraine goes on is that Putin was misled. The original plan was to conquer Kiyv in a few days, kill Zelensky and others and install a puppet government. The whole "military operation" was just that. They had no plan B. I mean, they are trying to do their plan B now, with no hope of getting anywhere. But from Putin's POV in February it all made sense, and the fact that Ukraine repelled the initia…

OK, but it's not February anymore. If they really have "no hope of getting anywhere", then why continue? Just as they have no hope in Finland, they have no hope in Ukraine. They once thought they did, but that was 10 months ago.
Post reply on HN