Because unemployment is low that means that the Fed can't drop rates at all or else inflation will come back. And it is likely that if the Fed pauses rate hikes and the economy doesn't fall into recession that there will be another boom and high inflation again, which will kick off more rate hikes. This is the difference between short-term reactions of inflation to rates and long-term reactions.
What the Fed needs to meet its goals is unemployment running at 6-8% so that there's slack in the labor market. Until that happens, inflation will persistently come back. That implies that the Fed must create a recession to increase unemployment before it meets its goals.
And I suspect that it will be sufficient for the Fed to maintain rates at roughly where they are for 6-12 months in order to achieve a recession. We've spent way too long on cheap rates and there's too many zombie investments that require borrowing at stupidly low rates. When those loans adjust to higher rates and the borrowing costs of those entities double or triple (just like an ARM) those entities should all go under. You don't have to look past the vacancies in the malls and downtown cores of cities.
my view of "everyone is probably wrong" is how much everyone is predicting a soft-landing or mild recession in the US (including the title article, which is a good gauge of the centrist position). Rates are already at a level where they should cause detonations in the US economy -- it will just take 6-12 months at these current levels (and historically recessions that followed rate hikes have happened after 6-12 months -- there are time delays in the system).